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Africa Intelligence Brief for Thursday, February 12, 2026
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February 12, 2026
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13 min read
What Matters Today
Read about Africa Intelligence Brief for Thursday, February 12, 2026 on The Rio Times.
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What matters today
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1 Ramaphosa delivers SONA 2026 tonight at Cape Town City Hall — water crisis, economic growth, foreign policy, and SANDF underfunding expected to dominate; address set for 19:00 local time
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2 Cyclone Gezani enters Mozambique Channel with 31+ dead — re-intensifying toward cyclone strength; Sofala, Inhambane, and Gaza provinces on high alert; up to 1 million at risk
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3 US to deploy 200 troops to Nigeria for counterterrorism training — follows Christmas Day airstrikes and AFRICOM commander visit; sovereignty concerns and basing fears emerge
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4 AU Executive Council concludes 48th session — foreign ministers finalise draft decisions for Heads of State summit Feb 14–15; geopolitics, resource competition, and peace top corridor debates
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01
\nMarket Snapshot
\nIntraday Feb 12
\nMarket Snapshot
\nIntraday Feb 12
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| PAIR / INDEX | LEVEL | DAY CHG | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| JSE All Share | ~122,219 | +0.4% | ▲ SONA anticipation; industrials lead |
| NGX All Share | ~106,100 | +0.3% | ▲ electoral reform momentum |
| NSE 20 (Nairobi) | ~1,925 | +0.1% | ▲ |
| EGX 30 (Cairo) | ~32,600 | +0.4% | ▲ |
| USD/ZAR | ~18.38 | -0.2% | ▲ rand firms ahead of SONA |
| USD/NGN | ~1,518 | -0.1% | ▲ BDC FX program continuing |
| Brent Crude | $69.68/bbl | +0.4% | ▲ US–Iran Hormuz tensions |
| Gold | $5,068/oz | +0.2% | ▲ 4th straight session of gains |
| Copper | ~$9,380/t | +0.3% | ▲ Mining Indaba sentiment |
| Cobalt | ~$24,700/t | +0.5% | ▲ Glencore–Orion deal momentum |
| Cocoa | ~$8,100/t | -0.8% | ▼ W. Africa midcrop supply weighs |
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02
\nConflict & Stability Tracker
\nConflict & Stability Tracker
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\nCritical
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\nCritical
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Sudan – Kordofan
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RSF drone strike on mosque kills 2–3 children in al-Rahad, North Kordofan; WFP warehouse hit by rockets in Kadugli; UN Quintet warns of El Fasher-scale atrocities; 90+ civilian drone deaths in two weeks; Kordofan now fiercest battlefield
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\nEscalating
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\nEscalating
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Ethiopia – Tigray
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Abiy orders Eritrea troop withdrawal; ENDF–TSF clashes continue near Amhara border with drones and artillery; Pretoria peace deal at risk; one million remain displaced; UN Human Rights Chief warns of wider Horn crisis
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\nTense
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\nTense
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DRC – Eastern Congo
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SA begins MONUSCO withdrawal after 27 years; US mineral deals draw domestic opposition and church criticism; Mining Indaba showdown between SA and DRC ministers; M23 ceasefire fragile
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\nWatching
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Nigeria – US Military
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200 US troops deploying for counterterrorism training; sovereignty debate intensifies; basing concerns surface; Boko Haram and ISWAP active in northeast and northwest; Christmas Day strike fallout continues
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03
\nFast Take
\nFast Take
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BREAKINGRamaphosa delivers SONA at Cape Town City Hall tonight at 19:00 — expected to address water crisis, economic growth, foreign policy under strained US relations, SANDF underfunding, and Government of National Unity progress; budget over R7 million; speech to set tone for 2026 legislative year
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CRISISCyclone Gezani enters Mozambique Channel with 31+ dead — re-intensifying toward cyclone strength; winds expected to reach 80 knots by Sunday; Inhambane, Sofala, and Gaza provinces on high alert; Mozambique warns up to 1 million could be affected; CERF allocates $3 million in anticipatory funding for Madagascar
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SECURITYPentagon to deploy 200 troops to Nigeria for counterterrorism training — will supplement small team already on ground; Nigeria retains full command authority; US seeking drone refuelling station; Daily Trust reports sovereignty fears among stakeholders; AFRICOM commander visited Abuja last week
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CONFLICTRSF drone strike hits mosque in al-Rahad, North Kordofan — children killed during dawn Quran lesson; WFP warehouse in Kadugli hit by rockets; UN Quintet (AU, IGAD, LAS, EU, UN) issues joint warning; Kordofan emerging as conflict’s most active front; 90+ drone strike civilian deaths in two weeks
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SUMMITAU Executive Council wraps 48th session — foreign ministers describe “eroded multilateralism” and fierce competition for critical minerals; Ethiopia’s FM warns of tech arms race; draft decisions ready for Heads of State summit Feb 14–15; Italy–Africa Summit on Feb 13; Nigeria’s VP Shettima departs for Addis Ababa
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MININGMining Indaba 2026 closes in Cape Town — record-breaking 32nd edition drew 10,500+ delegates; Africa’s mining sovereignty push accelerates as Guinea, Ghana revise mining codes and royalties; critical minerals, value chain localisation, and ESG dominate final-day agenda
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04
\nDevelopments to Watch
\nDevelopments to Watch
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SOUTH AFRICARamaphosa’s SONA 2026: “We Are Turning the Corner”
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President Cyril Ramaphosa will deliver the 2026 State of the Nation Address tonight at Cape Town City Hall — the same venue where Nelson Mandela first addressed the nation in 1990. The address comes at a politically fraught moment: strained US–South Africa relations, a deepening water crisis, persistent unemployment, and growing tension within the Government of National Unity. Political analyst André Duvenhage of North-West University warned the president has “not much genuinely positive to report” and expects “substantial and possibly intense criticism.” Ramaphosa is expected to address economic growth (forecast at 1.2%–1.7%, far below the 3–4% needed to dent unemployment), the water infrastructure emergency, foreign policy positioning between the West and BRICS partners, SANDF underfunding, and immigration. Business leaders want updates on freight reform, corruption, and investment clarity. Parliament Secretary Xolile George confirmed the SONA budget at just over R7 million.
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INDIAN OCEANCyclone Gezani Re-Intensifies Over Mozambique Channel
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Cyclone Gezani has entered the Mozambique Channel and is rapidly strengthening after killing at least 31 people in Madagascar, displacing over 31,000, and devastating the port city of Toamasina with 185+ km/h winds. The Zimbabwe Met Service and US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Centre project intensification to 80 knots (cyclone strength) by Sunday, with forecast models showing 165 km/h winds within 36 hours. Mozambique’s National Meteorological Institute warns that Sofala, Inhambane, and Gaza provinces face heavy rains, strong winds, and flooding, though current forecasts suggest Gezani may not make direct landfall on the African coast. The National Directorate for Water Resources Management warned up to one million people could be affected. Since October, Mozambique has recorded 202 deaths, 291 injuries, and 850,000+ people affected by floods and storms. CERF has allocated $3 million for anticipatory action in Madagascar, plus $2 million for Cyclone Fytia response. This is the second cyclone in 11 days following Fytia.
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WEST AFRICA200 US Troops Headed to Nigeria as Sovereignty Debate Intensifies
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The Pentagon will deploy approximately 200 troops to Nigeria within weeks to train local forces in counterterrorism operations, supplementing a small US team already on the ground since the Christmas Day airstrikes. Major General Samaila Uba, spokesperson for Nigeria’s Defence Headquarters, confirmed the deployment but stressed that “Nigerian forces retain full command authority” and the US troops “do not serve in a combat capacity.” The Wall Street Journal reported the additional troops will help coordinate air strikes with ground operations. A US official familiar with the discussions told TheCable that Washington has requested a drone refuelling station in Nigeria for flights originating from Accra, Ghana. Daily Trust reported growing concerns among stakeholders that the US “may be on their way to having a base in Nigeria.” AFRICOM Commander General Dagvin Anderson visited Abuja last week and met President Tinubu, NSA Nuhu Ribadu, and Defence Minister Christopher Musa. The deployment follows Trump’s designation of Nigeria as a “Country of Particular Concern” over what he called a “Christian genocide.”
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SUDANKordofan Becomes Fiercest Battleground as Drone War Escalates
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Sudan’s Kordofan region has emerged as the war’s most active front, with drone strikes by both the RSF and SAF killing civilians at an accelerating rate. An RSF drone struck a mosque in al-Rahad city during a dawn Quran lesson on Wednesday, killing two to three children and injuring 13 — just days after a separate RSF drone attack killed 24 displaced people, including eight children, near the same city. The WFP warehouse in Kadugli, South Kordofan, was hit by suspected rockets, severely damaging buildings and food storage. UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk’s office has documented over 90 civilian deaths and 142 injuries from drone strikes by both sides in the two weeks from late January to February 6 alone. The UN Quintet — comprising the AU, IGAD, League of Arab States, EU, and UN — issued an extraordinary joint statement warning of escalation comparable to the atrocities in El Fasher. The WHO reports that 40,000+ have been killed and 12 million displaced since the war began in April 2023, though aid groups say the true toll could be many times higher.
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CONTINENTALAU Summit Week: Geopolitics and Resource Competition Take Centre Stage
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The AU Executive Council’s 48th session concluded today with foreign ministers finalising draft decisions for the Assembly of Heads of State (Feb 14–15). Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister Gedion Timotiwos opened with a stark assessment of the geopolitical landscape, warning that “fierce competition for technological supremacy, control of critical mineral resources, and major logistics routes are becoming a dominant feature of international relations.” He cited unconstitutional changes of government and eroding multilateralism as threats to the continent. The Italy–Africa Summit is scheduled for February 13. Nigeria’s Vice President Kashim Shettima departed Abuja on Thursday to represent President Tinubu, accompanied by cabinet ministers. The Private Sector Forum has emerged as a key track, with analysts noting the AU is effectively “outsourcing the delivery of its 50-year vision” to private capital. Approximately 20,000 delegates are expected across summit week events.
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CONTINENTALMining Indaba 2026 Closes with Record Attendance and Sovereignty Push
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The 32nd Investing in African Mining Indaba closed today in Cape Town after four days that drew record attendance of over 10,500 delegates, 1,300+ investors, and government officials under the theme “Stronger Together: Progress Through Partnerships.” The event was defined by a continent-wide push for mining sovereignty — Guinea, Ghana, and others are revising mining codes and royalties to capture more value domestically. Africa holds approximately 55% of the world’s cobalt reserves and significant shares of manganese and platinum group metals. The conference was marked by public clashes between South Africa’s mining minister Gwede Mantashe and DRC counterparts over the US mineral partnership. The event’s growing focus on downstream buyer engagement — automotive, renewable energy, and aerospace sectors — signals Africa’s determination to move beyond raw material exports. The Glencore–Orion $9 billion deal and Virtus Minerals’ acquisition of 95% of Chemaf were among the most discussed transactions.
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HORN OF AFRICAEthiopia Orders Eritrea Troop Withdrawal Amid Tigray Breakdown
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Ethiopia has issued a formal demand for Eritrea to withdraw its troops from Ethiopian territory, a dramatic escalation that follows PM Abiy’s first-ever acknowledgment that Eritrean forces committed mass killings during the 2020–22 Tigray war. Heavy fighting between the ENDF and Tigray Security Forces continues near the Amhara border, with drones and artillery deployed by both sides in the disputed Tselemti area. A rival Tigray Peace Forces faction is simultaneously fighting the TSF in southern Tigray and Afar. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk warned of a potential return to full-scale conflict. The Pretoria agreement’s regional brokers — Kenya, South Africa, and Nigeria — face calls to re-engage. The tensions are expected to dominate corridor conversations at the AU summit this week, alongside Ethiopia’s maritime access ambitions. One million Tigrayans remain internally displaced.
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SOUTHERN AFRICAZimbabwe Constitutional Amendments Move Toward Parliament
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Cabinet-approved draft legislation to extend presidential terms from five to seven years and replace direct elections with parliamentary selection is heading to gazette and parliament. The bill would allow 83-year-old President Mnangagwa to remain in power until 2030, circumventing the 2013 constitution’s two-term limit. ZANU-PF holds a two-thirds supermajority in the lower house and controls the upper chamber through traditional leaders. Constitutional experts and opposition figures, led by Bulawayo Mayor David Coltart, insist a national referendum is legally required. Justice Minister Ziyambi said public consultations will precede parliamentary debate. The death last week of internal critic Blessed Geza removed a powerful dissenting voice. The timeline suggests the bill could be gazetted by late February.
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SOUTH AFRICAJohannesburg Water Crisis Persists Ahead of SONA
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Johannesburg’s water emergency continues as backdrop to Ramaphosa’s address tonight. WaterCAN has demanded the city be declared a disaster area, with parts of Parktown and Emmarentia without water for 21+ days and factories in Selby dry for 20+ weeks. A cracked Hursthill Reservoir 2 under repair since November is the proximate cause, compounded by an unprotected strike by SA Municipal Workers’ Union over unpaid bonuses launched February 6. Nationally, 47% of piped water is lost through leaks, Johannesburg has less than 12 hours of storage capacity against a 48-hour standard, and 22 water systems are classified as “critically endangered.” Rand Water has warned it will reduce supply to high-consuming municipalities. The water bill establishing the National Water Infrastructure Agency has passed the National Assembly and heads to the NCOP next week, with a board appointment targeted before April 2026. The crisis is expected to feature prominently in SONA.
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HORN OF AFRICASomaliland Presses for US Recognition After Israeli Boost
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Somaliland officials continue leveraging Israel’s recent recognition to press Washington for a similar move, emphasising their strategic Red Sea coastline and natural resources. The self-governing territory has operated with its own institutions since 1991. Supporters in Washington argue recognition could bolster US security interests in the Horn of Africa, particularly given tensions with Ethiopia and the scramble for Indian Ocean positioning. Somaliland is deepening cooperation with Israel in technology, agriculture, and water management. The AU, EU, and several regional powers have criticised the Israeli recognition as “driven by geopolitics.” Ethiopia’s controversial Somaliland port deal remains a regional flashpoint expected to draw corridor debate at the AU summit this week.
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05
\nSovereign & Credit Pulse
\nSovereign & Credit Pulse
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| COUNTRY | EVENT | ASSESSMENT |
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| South Africa | SONA tonight; GDP growth 1.2–1.7%; US relations strained | Markets cautiously optimistic; water crisis and foreign policy key risks |
| Nigeria | 200 US troops deploying; electoral reform advancing; CBN FX sales | Sovereignty trade-offs for security gains; reform momentum positive for naira |
| Sudan | Kordofan drone escalation; WFP warehouse destroyed; UN Quintet warning | Humanitarian catastrophe deepening; aid access collapsing |
| DRC | Glencore–Orion $9B deal; church and political opposition mounting | Mineral geopolitics reshaping sovereign risk profile |
| Mozambique | Cyclone Gezani approaching; 850K+ already affected this season | Climate vulnerability extreme; reconstruction costs compounding |
| Ethiopia | Eritrea withdrawal ultimatum; Tigray fighting; Airlines $4.4B H1 | Dual-track economy: commercial success vs security deterioration |
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06
\nPower Players
\nPower Players
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| WHO | ROLE | WHY IT MATTERS |
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| Cyril Ramaphosa | President, South Africa | Delivers SONA tonight amid water crisis, strained US ties, and GNU tensions |
| Gen. Dagvin Anderson | Commander, US AFRICOM | Visited Abuja; driving 200-troop deployment and expanded Nigeria security cooperation |
| Gedion Timotiwos | Foreign Minister, Ethiopia | Opened AU Executive Council warning of “fierce competition” for critical minerals and logistics |
| Kashim Shettima | Vice President, Nigeria | Departed for AU summit representing Tinubu; bilateral engagements planned |
| Volker Türk | UN High Commissioner for Human Rights | Documented 90+ drone strike deaths in Sudan; warned of Tigray and Kordofan escalation |
| Gwede Mantashe | Mineral Resources Minister, SA | Closed Mining Indaba after public clash with DRC over US mineral deal |
| Maj Gen Samaila Uba | Spokesman, Nigeria DHQ | Confirmed US troop presence; asserted full Nigerian command authority over all operations |
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\nRegulatory & Policy Watch
\nRegulatory & Policy Watch
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| JURISDICTION | MEASURE | STATUS / IMPACT |
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| South Africa | SONA 2026 — policy direction and programme of action | Delivered tonight; expected to cover water reform, economic growth, and foreign policy |
| South Africa | National Water Infrastructure Agency bill | Passed National Assembly; heading to NCOP next week; board appointment expected by April |
| Nigeria | Electoral Act 2026 amendment (e-transmission) | Conference committee harmonising Senate–House versions; Tinubu assent expected by Feb end |
| Nigeria | US–Nigeria Joint Working Group military cooperation | 200 troops deploying; training framework active; sovereignty questions emerging |
| Zimbabwe | Constitutional amendment bill (7-year terms) | Cabinet approved; heading to gazette late Feb; legal challenges expected |
| AU | 2026 water security framework and institutional reform | Executive Council finalised drafts; Heads of State to adopt Feb 14–15 |
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08
\nCalendar
\nNext 72 Hours
\nCalendar
\nNext 72 Hours
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| DATE | EVENT | SIGNIFICANCE |
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| Feb 12 | SONA 2026, Cape Town City Hall, 19:00 SAST | Ramaphosa outlines policy direction; markets, investors, and GNU partners watching |
| Feb 12 | Mining Indaba 2026 final day, Cape Town | Closing sessions; deal announcements; Africa mining policy direction crystallises |
| Feb 12 | AU Executive Council 48th session concludes, Addis Ababa | Draft decisions finalised for Heads of State summit |
| Feb 12–13 | Cyclone Gezani intensifies over Mozambique Channel | Approaching cyclone strength; Mozambique coastal provinces on high alert |
| Feb 13 | Italy–Africa Summit, Addis Ababa | High-level bilateral engagement on margins of AU summit week |
| Feb 14–15 | AU Assembly of Heads of State, 39th session, Addis Ababa | 2026 continental strategy; water security framework; institutional reform; AU organ elections |
| Feb (late) | Zimbabwe constitutional amendment bill gazetted | Public consultations before parliament debate; legal challenges expected |
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09
\nBottom Line
\nBottom Line
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Three capitals tell the story of Africa’s February 12. In Cape Town, Cyril Ramaphosa steps to the podium tonight to deliver a State of the Nation Address freighted with impossible expectations — water systems collapsing, growth crawling at 1.5%, a Government of National Unity that cannot agree on foreign policy, and an American president who speaks of South Africa as an adversary. In Addis Ababa, foreign ministers have spent two days acknowledging what everyone can see: that the multilateral order they built is being hollowed out by resource competition and geopolitical fragmentation. Ethiopia’s own foreign minister warned of “fierce competition for technological supremacy and critical mineral resources” — a description that could serve as the subtitle for the entire Mining Indaba, which closes today in Cape Town after its largest-ever gathering. And in Abuja, the deployment of 200 American troops lands on a continent that just a year ago was expelling foreign military forces from the Sahel. The difference: this time Nigeria is inviting the Americans in, on its own terms, though the terms are already being contested. Meanwhile, the violence that makes all these diplomatic manoeuvrings feel inadequate continues to escalate. In Sudan’s Kordofan, drone strikes are now hitting mosques and food warehouses; ninety civilians have been killed by drone strikes in two weeks. In the Indian Ocean, Cyclone Gezani is recharging over warm water after killing 31 in Madagascar, bearing down on a Mozambique already reeling from a season that has affected 850,000 people. The thread connecting Cape Town, Addis Ababa, and Abuja is the same one running through Kordofan and the Mozambique Channel: Africa’s institutions are being asked to deliver more — security, water, democratic accountability, mineral sovereignty — with less consensus, less funding, and less time than the crises demand.
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Africa Intelligence Brief
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Daily Edition · Thursday, February 12, 2026
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This is part of The Rio Times’ coverage of African business and economic developments for the global financial community.
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