Steel Wrap: Gerdau and Ternium Fall as Global Producers Retreat
Key Facts
- Gerdau fell the Brazilian steelmaker’s New York shares dropped -2.71% to US$4.67, giving back Monday’s tariff-driven gain.
- Ternium declined Mexico’s main steel proxy slipped -1.21% to US$53.69 as Chinese slab imports and US trade uncertainty weighed.
- CSN bucked the trend the Brazilian flat-steel producer’s ADR rose +0.41% to US$0.9037, helped by renewed anti-dumping duties on Chinese sheet.
- The SLX ETF lost ground the global steel-producers fund fell 1.49% to US$106.69, reflecting a down day for the sector worldwide.
- Trade defence is the floor Brazil has rolled over five-year anti-dumping duties on Chinese pre-painted steel, cold-rolled sheet and wire rod, shielding Gerdau, CSN and Usiminas.
- Demand remains patchy Brazilian construction is uneven and auto order books are thin, while Mexico’s commercial market is growing but consumption stays below 2023 levels.
Today’s Focus
Latin American steel shares lost their Monday spark on Tuesday, August 18, 2026, with Gerdau and Ternium slipping while CSN managed a small gain. The moves show a market still caught between protective tariffs and soft demand.
Gerdau’s New York-listed stock dropped -2.71% to US$4.67, a pullback after Monday’s 1.27% rise. Ternium fell -1.21% to US$53.69, pressured by cheap Chinese slab imports and uncertainty over US Section 232 tariffs.
CSN’s ADR was the outlier, rising +0.41% to US$0.9037 on Brazil’s renewed anti-dumping duties covering Chinese cold-rolled sheet and pre-painted steel. The broader SLX steel ETF lost 1.49% to US$106.69, confirming a weak global tape for producers.
What matters today. The tariff shield is real, but without stronger construction and auto demand, Latin American steel names will struggle to hold gains.
01 The session in one read
Latin American steel equities retreated on Tuesday, August 18, 2026, undoing part of Monday’s tariff-inspired advance. Gerdau and Ternium led the declines, while CSN held a marginal gain and the global steel ETF slipped.
The session underscored a structural tension: Brazil and Mexico have renewed duties on Chinese steel, but domestic demand in both countries remains too fragile to support a sustained rally. Investors are buying the protection, not the growth story.
The session confirmed that trade defence measures are supporting Latin American steel shares but not driving them higher. Gerdau’s strong Q2 EBITDA of R$3.4 billion (about US$653 million), its best since Q3 2023, shows North American operations compensating for soft Brazilian demand, yet the stock still fell. Ternium’s exposure to Mexican commercial demand is a genuine bright spot, but management’s own caution on US tariffs tempers enthusiasm. The variable to watch is Brazilian construction data: if lower Selic rates start lifting housing starts and long-steel orders, Gerdau and CSN could break out of their range.
02 The board
Gerdau’s New York shares closed at US$4.67, a drop of -2.71% that gave back more than half of Monday’s gain. The Brazilian producer’s North American earnings have been strong, but its domestic operations still face imported-steel pressure.
Ternium ended at US$53.69, down -1.21% as Mexican investors weighed the unresolved US tariff debate and a steady flow of Chinese slab into regional markets. CSN was the only gainer, its ADR rising +0.41% to US$0.9037 on the rolled-over duties on Chinese flat steel.
The VanEck SLX fund, which tracks global steel producers, fell 1.49% to US$106.69, confirming that Tuesday’s weakness was not confined to Latin America.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Steel (SLX ETF) | US$106.69 | -1.49% |
| Gerdau | US$4.67 | -2.71% |
| CSN (ADR) | US$0.9037 | +0.41% |
| Ternium | US$53.69 | -1.21% |
Source: RT close, 2026-08-18. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 166,334.86 | -0.27% | +21.85% | 166,783.57 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| IPSA | 11,186.57 | +0.34% | — | 11,148.13 | 11,210 | 10,984 | 1,513,213,483 |
| IPC MEX | 64,301.04 | +0.07% | +12.17% | 64,254.98 | 66,121 | 65,405 | 108,886,187 |
| MERVAL | 2,891,651 | -1.89% | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| COLCAP | 2,461.23 | +0.36% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| BVL PERÚ | 58,401.58 | -1.35% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| USD/MXN | 17.06 | -0.24% | -8.58% | 17.10 | 17.08 | 17.01 | — |
| USD/CLP | 913.98 | +0.04% | -5.67% | 913.65 | 915.11 | 906.68 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,140 | +0.03% | -22.04% | 3,139 | 3,141 | 3,105 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.36 | -0.66% | -4.82% | 3.38 | 3.38 | 3.35 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.27 | +1.24% | +1.80% | 39.77 | 40.27 | 40.23 | — |
| USD/PYG | 5,939 | +1.68% | -19.54% | 5,841 | 5,939 | 5,925 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.64 | -0.76% | +72.04% | 11.73 | 11.72 | 11.64 | — |
| USD/DOP | 58.34 | +1.25% | -3.44% | 57.62 | 58.34 | 58.04 | — |
| USD/CRC | 445.92 | +0.89% | -9.71% | 441.97 | 448.50 | 445.92 | — |
03 What moved it
The dominant headwind is cheap Chinese steel. Brazil has rolled over five-year anti-dumping duties on Chinese pre-painted steel, cold-rolled sheet and wire rod, directly shielding Gerdau, CSN and Usiminas. Yet first-half 2026 import penetration in Brazil was still 22.5%, well above historical norms.
On the demand side, Brazilian construction is patchy and auto-sector order books are thin. Gerdau’s Brazilian long-steel pricing remains soft despite the tariff support, and CSN faces weak domestic offtake even with the import shield.
In Mexico, Ternium’s Q2 results were strong — net income jumped 79.5% to US$465 million on net sales of US$4,340 million — but the company flagged uncertainty over US Section 232 and the USMCA review. That caution weighed on the stock.
04 The Latin American read
For foreign investors, the Latin American steel trade is a play on policy rather than organic growth. Brazil’s central bank has cut Selic to 14.00% in four consecutive reductions, a move aimed at reviving construction and homebuilding, the sector that consumed over half of domestic steel in 2025.
Mexico offers a more balanced story. Ternium expects Mexican steel demand to grow about 4% in 2026, with infrastructure projects and substitution of Asian imports supporting shipments. The company is discussing 600,000–700,000 tons of project steel with the Mexican government.
But the US tariff overhang is real: USMCA-qualifying Mexican steel now pays 25% on non-US content, and Ternium’s CEO called the measures ‘hard to justify’ for steel. Until that clarity arrives, Mexico’s premium over Brazil will remain constrained.
05 The names to watch
Gerdau is the bellwether for Brazilian long steel. Its North American operations delivered Q2 adjusted net income of R$1.5 billion (about US$288 million), up 45% sequentially, but the stock will not re-rate until Brazilian construction data improves.
CSN is the low-cost flat-steel play, leveraged to any recovery in Brazilian auto and appliance demand. The rolled-over anti-dumping duties on Chinese sheet are a direct margin support.
Ternium remains the most diversified of the three, with Mexico’s nearshoring-driven industrial building and gas pipeline projects providing a demand floor that Brazil currently lacks.
06 The outlook
Steel equities are likely to stay range-bound until Brazilian construction data shows a clear lift from lower Selic rates. The tariff shields in Brazil and Mexico prevent a collapse, but they cannot generate upside on their own.
The next catalyst is likely policy news from Washington on Section 232 and the USMCA review, which would affect Ternium’s Mexican exports. For Brazil, watch monthly construction and auto production data for signs that monetary easing is finally feeding through to steel orders.
07 What to watch
- Brazil construction data: Any rise in housing starts or long-steel orders would confirm the Selic easing is working and lift Gerdau and CSN.
- US Section 232 clarity: A resolution on Mexican steel tariffs would remove a major uncertainty for Ternium and could re-rate the stock.
- Chinese export volumes: If monthly Chinese finished steel exports stay above 8 million tonnes, regional import penetration will remain elevated and cap margins.
- Mexican infrastructure projects: The 600,000–700,000 tons of government project steel Ternium is discussing could add visible volume over one to two years.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Gerdau fall on Tuesday?
Gerdau’s New York shares dropped -2.71% to US$4.67 as investors took profit after Monday’s gain and fretted over soft Brazilian construction demand.
What lifted CSN’s ADR?
CSN rose +0.41% to US$0.9037 after Brazil rolled over five-year anti-dumping duties on Chinese cold-rolled sheet and pre-painted steel, directly protecting its flat-steel business.
Is Ternium’s business actually growing?
Yes. Ternium’s Q2 net income jumped 79.5% to US$465 million, and Mexican commercial demand showed significant year-over-year growth, but US tariff uncertainty is capping the share price.
What is the biggest risk to Latin American steel?
Cheap Chinese imports remain the structural threat. Even with renewed duties, Brazil’s first-half 2026 import penetration was 22.5%, squeezing domestic mill margins.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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