Strong Mexican Peso And Buoyant Bolsa Ride Global Dollar Weakness

USD/MXN is trading around 18.27–18.28 this morning, near its overnight low, after the peso inched another 0.05% stronger on Tuesday.

The move came in a narrow 18.26–18.33 band but extended a slow appreciation trend that began in November, as investors continue to park money in Mexico’s high-yield currency rather than in lower-paying developed-market debt.

The backdrop is a softer US dollar. The Dollar Index is hovering just above 99, close to recent lows, as traders price earlier Federal Reserve cuts and speculate about a more market-friendly successor to Jerome Powell.

A weaker dollar and falling US yields keep the carry trade attractive and encourage investors to reward orthodox central banks that resist political pressure. Banxico’s minutes, stressing Mexico’s positive real rate and “risk-adjusted differential,” fit that script neatly.

On the charts, the peso’s strength looks orderly rather than euphoric. In the four-hour USD/MXN chart, spot sits below the Ichimoku cloud and short-term averages, hugging the lower Bollinger band near 18.26.

MACD remains negative but is flattening, while RSI slips just under 35. The daily picture echoes this, with the pair trading below clustered moving averages around 18.30–18.35.

The MACD has turned down again, and the RSI is hovering near 41. Support lies around 18.22–18.25; resistance forms between 18.35 and 18.40. Equities are riding the same tailwind.

The S&P/BMV IPC closed Tuesday at 63,820.61 points, up about 0.4% and less than 1% below its record high from mid-November, with roughly 17–18 billion pesos in turnover and breadth almost perfectly balanced.

Analysts at Banco Base spoke of a “rebound in global risk appetite” after Monday’s pullback, while Actinver noted the index is up close to 29% so far this year.

Stock selection tells the rest of the story. The five top winners were FEMSA, up just over 5%; Grupo Bimbo, gaining more than 4%; Alfa, Pinfra and regional lender Banregio, each adding around 2–3% as investors backed consumption, infrastructure and well-run banks.

The day’s biggest losers were miner Penoles, Kimberly-Clark de México and Bolsa Mexicana de Valores, while earlier steep drops in Vasconia and mall operator GICSA still weigh on sentiment in more leveraged, policy-sensitive names.

Behind the calm tape, foreign ETF money is quietly taking profits after a stellar year, but as long as Mexico offers a strong currency, disciplined monetary policy and an equity index near records, the market’s instinct remains to buy dips rather than punish prudence.

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