Power Struggle in Bolivia: Evo Morales and Luis Arce’s Fractured Alliance

(Analysis) The political landscape in Bolivia has become a battleground between former allies. Evo Morales, the country’s ex-president, and Luis Arce, the current leader, are locked in a fierce power struggle.

Their once-strong partnership has crumbled as they vie for control of Bolivia’s future. Morales, a prominent figure in Latin American politics, faces a challenging period in his long career.

He leads in voting intention polls for the upcoming elections. However, doubts linger about his ability to regain the presidency, his deepest desire. The prediction of Álvaro García Linera, Morales’ close collaborator for 14 years, has come true.

The conflict between Morales and Arce, his chosen successor, has proven destructive. This internal strife threatens the very existence of their shared political party, the Movement for Socialism (MAS).

Arce, along with Vice President David Choquehuanca, now holds the reins of power in Bolivia. Morales, on the other hand, has lost his grip on authority. This situation is precisely what Morales tried to avoid through successive re-elections over the past two decades.

Morales’ re-election strategy led him into a difficult position. Protests against his fourth term bid, seen as fraudulent by the opposition, erupted. The police and military aligned with the political elite Morales had long fought against. These events led to his ousting and exile in 2019.

Unable to run in the 2020 elections, Morales chose Arce as the MAS candidate. He wanted to prevent Choquehuanca, the next most popular leader, from taking control. Arce later accused Morales of wanting him to be a puppet president.

Many MAS members, who suffered under the transitional government of Jeanine Añez, called for party renewal. They wanted the “old guard” associated with Morales to step aside. This demand for change created further tension within the party.

Arce quickly distanced himself from Morales after taking office. He formed an alliance with Choquehuanca and embraced the idea of party renewal. Arce’s inaugural speech notably omitted any mention of his former mentor.

Power Struggle in Bolivia: Evo Morales and Luis Arce’s Fractured Alliance

The new president filled his cabinet with his own trusted allies and those of Choquehuanca. Morales’ key supporters were left out. This decision was partly due to pressure from party members who believed it was time for change.

As friction increased, Morales claimed there was a “black plan” to arrest and extradite him to the United States. Recently, he made similar allegations following a government-led judicial campaign against him. Four legal cases have been opened, including one for statutory rape based on a previously investigated complaint.

From Arce’s perspective, this outcome stems from Morales’ refusal to relinquish his role as the sole party leader. Morales strongly opposes the concept of renewal, equating it with betrayal. He demanded that no other leaders form their own public groups within the party.

Morales also insisted on being the party’s candidate for the 2025 elections. Arce suggested postponing this decision, implying his own re-election ambitions. In response, Morales pushed for a change in party rules to require ten years of membership for candidates.

At a party congress in Lauca Ñ, Morales secured his desired position as the MAS candidate. From that point on, both leaders worked openly to eliminate each other politically. Personal affronts added fuel to their conflicting ambitions.

Initially, Arce seemed to have the upper hand. He gained support from social organizations and unions by allowing them to participate in the government. He also wielded influence over the judiciary, which tends to align with the ruling power in Bolivia.

However, an economic crisis that erupted in early 2023 derailed Arce’s path to re-election. His approval ratings plummeted, while Morales’ support grew among the MAS party’s core voters. Morales demonstrated his grassroots strength through a recent protest march against the economic crisis.

During this mobilization, Morales’ supporters called for Arce and Choquehuanca’s resignation. In response, government officials threatened to arrest Morales. The government tried but failed to block the march to La Paz, where Arce still holds strong support.

Morales suspended further road blockades after the march. The government concluded it lacked the strength to confront him directly. Four legal cases were then initiated against Morales, who claimed they were aimed at eliminating him as a political alternative.

The power struggle between Morales and Arce continues to shape Bolivia’s political future. As the country approaches its next elections, the outcome of this conflict remains uncertain. The fate of the MAS party and Bolivia’s leadership hangs in the balance.