Oil Pulls Back but Middle East Risk Holds WTI Near $100
Key Facts
- WTI tracked by USO fell 2.20% to US$154.90 in Friday’s session, a pullback after a week of sharp gains driven by Middle East supply disruption.
- Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline was struck on Thursday with multiple pumping stations hit, threatening a vital crude export route and keeping Brent near US$105.
- The IEA cut its 2026 global oil supply outlook by another 1.4 million barrels per day and no longer expects normal Gulf flows to return this year, pointing to a 5.7 million bpd annual supply plunge.
- Petrobras shares slipped 0.84% to US$21.20 even as Brazil’s pre-salt province supplied 82.4% of national oil and gas output in July 2026.
- YPF fell 0.91% to US$55.55 after placing US$1.2 billion of international bonds on September 9, the largest Argentine corporate bond sale since 2015.
- Guyana’s offshore output is already just over 900,000 barrels per day and the Uaru field is expected to lift production above 1 million bpd from the last quarter of 2026.
Today’s Focus
Oil pulled back on Friday, with the WTI-tracking USO down 2.20% to US$154.90 after a week of sharp gains. Brent held near US$105 as markets weighed fresh strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure against position-squaring into the weekend.
Thursday’s drone strikes on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline system hit multiple pumping stations, threatening one of the kingdom’s most important crude export routes. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut since March, removing a huge share of global oil and LNG flows.
The IEA added to the supply anxiety on Friday, cutting its 2026 outlook by another 1.4 million barrels per day and abandoning any expectation of normal Gulf flows this year. Global supply is now set to fall 5.7 million barrels per day in 2026.
Latin American producers mostly slipped in sympathy. Petrobras fell 0.84% to US$21.20, Ecopetrol lost 1.77% to US$17.75, and YPF eased 0.91% to US$55.55.
What matters today. The physical supply shock from the Gulf is colliding with a technical pullback, so the question is whether Middle East disruptions keep a durable floor under WTI near US$100.
01 The session in one read
Oil eased on Friday, September 11, 2026, as traders locked in profits after a week of sharp Middle East-driven gains. The WTI-tracking USO settled at US$154.90, down 2.20% on the day, while Brent hovered near US$105.
The dip came despite fresh evidence of damage to Saudi Arabia’s oil export network. Drone strikes on Thursday hit multiple pumping stations along the kingdom’s critical East-West pipeline system, a route that bypasses the now-shut Strait of Hormuz.
Friday’s decline looks like position-squaring after a week of strong gains, not a reversal of the supply-driven trend. Confirmed damage to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and the IEA’s sombre supply revision both argue against a sustained slide. The variable to watch next week is whether tanker rates and Gulf loading schedules worsen, which could push WTI back through Friday’s US$154.90 proxy level.
02 The board
Latin American oil shares tracked crude lower. Petrobras fell 0.84% to US$21.20, Ecopetrol dropped 1.77% to US$17.75, and Argentina’s YPF eased 0.91% to US$55.55.
The moves were modest compared with the previous week’s rally, suggesting investors were trimming rather than exiting positions. Ecopetrol’s sharper fall reflects Colombia’s higher sensitivity to global crude swings and thinner trading liquidity than its Brazilian peer.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| WTI crude (USO) | US$154.90 | -2.20% |
| Petrobras | US$21.20 | -0.84% |
| Ecopetrol | US$17.75 | -1.77% |
| YPF | US$55.55 | -0.91% |
Source: RT close, 2026-09-11. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 187,206.89 | -0.56% | +21.85% | 188,268.59 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| IPSA | 11,220.10 | -0.16% | — | 11,238.58 | 11,210 | 10,984 | 1,513,213,483 |
| IPC MEX | 63,815.90 | -0.45% | +12.17% | 64,106.82 | 66,121 | 65,405 | 108,886,187 |
| MERVAL | 3,098,898 | -1.87% | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| COLCAP | 2,589.69 | -1.41% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| BVL PERÚ | 59,373.28 | -0.32% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| USD/MXN | 17.06 | -0.24% | -8.58% | 17.10 | 17.08 | 17.01 | — |
| USD/CLP | 913.98 | +0.04% | -5.67% | 913.65 | 915.11 | 906.68 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,140 | +0.03% | -22.04% | 3,139 | 3,141 | 3,105 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.36 | -0.66% | -4.82% | 3.38 | 3.38 | 3.35 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.27 | +1.24% | +1.80% | 39.77 | 40.27 | 40.23 | — |
| USD/PYG | 5,939 | +1.68% | -19.54% | 5,841 | 5,939 | 5,925 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.64 | -0.76% | +72.04% | 11.73 | 11.72 | 11.64 | — |
| USD/DOP | 58.34 | +1.25% | -3.44% | 57.62 | 58.34 | 58.04 | — |
| USD/CRC | 445.92 | +0.89% | -9.71% | 441.97 | 448.50 | 445.92 | — |
03 What moved it
Thursday’s attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline was the session’s dominant driver. Multiple pumping stations were hit, according to U.S. officials cited by CNN, threatening a vital export artery for the kingdom.
The IEA deepened the supply-side concern on Friday, cutting its 2026 global oil supply outlook by another 1.4 million barrels per day. The agency no longer expects normal Gulf flows to return this year, with global supply now projected to fall 5.7 million bpd.
Baker Hughes data showed the U.S. oil rig count rose by one to 450, with total U.S. rigs up 52 year-on-year to 591. The modest increase signals a slow supply response that does little to offset Gulf losses.
04 The Latin American read
Brazil’s pre-salt remains the region’s supply anchor. Petrobras confirmed hydrocarbons in the Morpho well in the Foz do Amazonas basin in August, and Ibama cleared three more Equatorial Margin wells on September 3.
Petrobras shares slipped 0.84% to US$21.20 despite the bullish long-term exploration story. The pre-salt province supplied 82.4% of Brazil’s national oil and gas output in July, holding above 4 million barrels per day since late 2025.
In Argentina, YPF fell 0.91% to US$55.55 even after lining up US$1.2 billion of international bonds on September 9. Vaca Muerta’s economics remain compelling, with Enverus estimating 8.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil at sub-US$55 WTI.
Mexico’s Pemex faces a tighter fiscal squeeze, with the 2027 budget cutting federal support by nearly 70% to 81 billion pesos. A rare projected surplus and an MoU with Woodside signal a shift toward private capital in Mexican waters.
05 The names to watch
Petrobras is the bellwether for Brazil’s deepwater growth, with the Tupi and Iracema fields having reached a combined 1 million barrels per day in January 2026. The Equatorial Margin now looks increasingly central to its long-term reserves.
Guyana’s ExxonMobil-led Stabroek block is closing in on the one-million-barrel-per-day milestone, with Uaru adding around 250,000 bpd from the fourth quarter. That makes the consortium’s ramp-up a key watchpoint for Hess/Chevron and CNOOC.
YPF is reinventing itself as an energy exporter under the RIGI regime, with a US$154.1 billion investment plan spanning oil hubs and a giant Argentina LNG project. Pemex, by contrast, is defending liquidity while courting Woodside and other private partners.
06 The outlook
The physical disruption in the Gulf shows no sign of easing, and the IEA’s supply revision suggests prices will stay structurally supported into 2027. Friday’s pullback in the WTI-tracking USO to US$154.90 looks more like positioning than a change in fundamentals. Next week’s tanker rates and any news on Saudi pipeline repairs will set the tone for Latin American producers.
07 What to watch
- Saudi pipeline repairs: The speed of repairs to the East-West system will determine how much of the Middle East supply loss becomes permanent.
- Tanker rates and Gulf flows: Shipping costs have spiked since Hormuz shut in March; any further deterioration would signal a deeper oil supply cut.
- Equatorial Margin drilling: Ibama’s clearance of three more wells raises the stakes for Petrobras and could open a new Brazilian deepwater frontier.
- Guyana’s million-barrel milestone: Uaru’s ramp-up in the fourth quarter will make Guyana the first Caribbean Community member above 1 million bpd.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did oil fall on Friday if supply risks are rising?
position-squaring after a week of sharp gains overwhelmed fresh supply headlines, leaving the WTI-tracking USO down 2.20% to US$154.90.
What happened to Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure?
Drone strikes on Thursday hit multiple pumping stations along the East-West pipeline, a crucial export route that bypasses the shut Strait of Hormuz.
How are Latin American oil shares reacting?
Petrobras fell 0.84% to US$21.20, Ecopetrol dropped 1.77% to US$17.75, and YPF eased 0.91% to US$55.55, all tracking crude lower.
Is there enough non-Gulf supply to offset the disruption?
Not in the short term. The U.S. oil rig count rose by only one to 450, while the IEA now expects a 5.7 million bpd drop in 2026 global supply.
Market data: RT
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