Oil Surges on Hormuz Risk; Petrobras, YPF Gain
Key Facts
- USO surged 5.61% to US$158.38 as markets priced in disruption risk through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Petrobras rose 2.15% to US$21.38, buoyed by Brazil’s pre-salt dominance and new Equatorial Margin finds.
- Mexico cut Pemex aid by nearly 70% in its 2027 budget, earmarking just 81 billion pesos for debt payments.
- YPF climbed 2.66% to US$56.06 as higher crude prices improved the economics of Vaca Muerta shale.
- OPEC sees demand exploding from 380,000 barrels per day this year to 2.36 million bpd in 2027.
- US inventories fell by 400,000 barrels to 424.1 million barrels in the week ending September 4.
Today’s Focus
Oil ripped higher on Thursday, September 10, 2026, as the threat of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz sent the WTI-tracking USO fund up 5.61% to US$158.38.
The move lifted Latin American producers: Petrobras gained 2.15% to US$21.38, YPF added 2.66% to US$56.06, and Colombia’s Ecopetrol rose 1.35% to US$18.07.
Brazil’s pre-salt remains the region’s anchor, supplying 82.4% of national output in July, while Mexico is cutting Pemex support by nearly 70% in its 2027 budget.
The session framed a widening gap between Latin America’s oil haves and have-nots, with Brazil and Guyana booming while Pemex struggles below its production target.
What matters today. The Hormuz risk premium is repricing every barrel of Latin American oil, rewarding exporters even as fiscal realities diverge sharply.
01 The session in one read
Crude proxies surged on Thursday, September 10, 2026, as the market priced in the risk of disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway carrying roughly a fifth of global oil.
The WTI-tracking United States Oil Fund jumped 5.61% to US$158.38, a move that dragged every major Latin American producer higher.
Petrobras closed at US$21.38, up 2.15%, while Argentina’s YPF gained 2.66% to US$56.06 and Colombia’s Ecopetrol added 1.35% to US$18.07.
The session was not a broad commodity rally; it was a targeted repricing of physical supply risk, and Latin America’s Atlantic-facing exporters were among the clearest beneficiaries.
Thursday’s move was driven by a single geopolitical variable: the Strait of Hormuz and whether Iranian tensions disrupt roughly a fifth of global crude flows. The USO fund’s 5.61% jump to US$158.38 is a direct expression of that fear, and Latin American producers are riding the same wave. Watch whether Asian buyers begin bidding for Atlantic Basin barrels from Brazil and Guyana to hedge against Gulf supply risk.
02 The board
The board tells a coherent story: the USO fund’s 5.61% leap to US$158.38 outpaces its Latin American equity proxies by a wide margin, showing that the fear is concentrated in the barrel itself, not yet fully in the companies that pump it.
Petrobras at US$21.38 and YPF at US$56.06 are rising, but their gains of 2.15% and 2.66% suggest investors are still weighing whether higher crude prices will survive long enough to boost earnings.
Ecopetrol’s 1.35% advance to US$18.07 was the laggard of the group, reflecting Colombia’s higher operating costs and the market’s preference for Brazil’s pre-salt scale.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| WTI crude (USO) | US$158.38 | +5.61% |
| Petrobras | US$21.38 | +2.15% |
| Ecopetrol | US$18.07 | +1.35% |
| YPF | US$56.06 | +2.66% |
Source: RT close, 2026-09-10. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 188,268.59 | +1.42% | +21.85% | 185,629.04 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| IPSA | 11,238.63 | -1.16% | — | 11,370.12 | 11,210 | 10,984 | 1,513,213,483 |
| IPC MEX | 64,106.82 | -1.09% | +12.17% | 64,814.97 | 66,121 | 65,405 | 108,886,187 |
| MERVAL | 3,157,852 | +1.53% | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| COLCAP | 2,626.71 | +1.65% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| BVL PERÚ | 60,702.89 | -2.19% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| USD/MXN | 17.06 | -0.24% | -8.58% | 17.10 | 17.08 | 17.01 | — |
| USD/CLP | 913.98 | +0.04% | -5.67% | 913.65 | 915.11 | 906.68 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,140 | +0.03% | -22.04% | 3,139 | 3,141 | 3,105 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.36 | -0.66% | -4.82% | 3.38 | 3.38 | 3.35 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.27 | +1.24% | +1.80% | 39.77 | 40.27 | 40.23 | — |
| USD/PYG | 5,939 | +1.68% | -19.54% | 5,841 | 5,939 | 5,925 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.64 | -0.76% | +72.04% | 11.73 | 11.72 | 11.64 | — |
| USD/DOP | 58.34 | +1.25% | -3.44% | 57.62 | 58.34 | 58.04 | — |
| USD/CRC | 445.92 | +0.89% | -9.71% | 441.97 | 448.50 | 445.92 | — |
03 What moved it
The proximate driver was fear of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian tensions threaten the route that handles much of the Gulf’s exports.
US crude inventories fell by 400,000 barrels to 424.1 million barrels in the week ending September 4, tightening the physical market at the same moment geopolitical risk spiked.
OPEC added fuel by forecasting global oil demand growth will explode from 380,000 barrels per day this year to 2.36 million bpd in 2027, a sixfold increase.
The US Energy Information Administration raised its 2027 US output forecast to 14.3 million barrels per day, but that longer-term supply could not offset Thursday’s immediate fear premium.
04 The Latin American read
Brazil remains the continent’s energy anchor: the pre-salt province supplied 82.4% of national oil and gas output in July 2026, with Petrobras confirming hydrocarbons in the Foz do Amazonas basin in August.
Ibama authorised three further wells on September 3, 2026, deepening Brazil’s shift from its pre-salt core to the Equatorial Margin frontier.
Mexico is moving the other way: its proposed 2027 budget cuts Pemex financial support by nearly 70%, leaving the company with 81 billion pesos to cover debt payments while production averages 1.65 million bpd, 150,000 bpd below target.
Guyana’s boom goes unmentioned in Thursday’s board but looms in every demand forecast; Senegal’s offer of 109 oil and gas blocks to foreign investors shows the Atlantic Basin is becoming the world’s alternative supply pool.
05 The names to watch
Petrobras at US$21.38 is the most direct play on Brazil’s pre-salt and Equatorial Margin momentum, with the Tupi and Iracema fields having already hit 1 million barrels per day on January 9, 2026.
YPF at US$56.06 benefits from the Vaca Muerta shale play in Argentina, where higher global prices improve the economics of every new well.
Ecopetrol at US$18.07 is the cautionary tale: it gains from higher prices, but its cost base and exposure to political risk temper investor enthusiasm.
Pemex has no traded equity story here, but the 70% support cut means every future price drop now falls directly on its balance sheet rather than Mexico’s federal budget.
06 The outlook
The single variable to watch is the Strait of Hormuz: if Iranian tensions escalate and a single cargo is delayed, Atlantic Basin barrels from Brazil and Guyana become the market’s first substitute.
USO’s 5.61% jump to US$158.38 already discounts a meaningful risk premium, but it has not yet priced a full closure scenario.
For Latin America, the next test is whether OPEC’s demand forecast of 2.36 million bpd in 2027 survives contact with real economic data from China and Europe.
07 What to watch
- Strait of Hormuz status: Any confirmed disruption would send Atlantic Basin demand for Brazilian and Guyanese crude vertical.
- Pemex 2027 budget vote: The 70% support cut could push Pemex into fresh debt negotiations if prices dip.
- Pre-salt output data: Brazil’s 82.4% pre-salt share and the Equatorial Margin wells are the region’s supply story.
- USO versus Petrobras spread: A widening gap would show the fear premium is outpacing corporate earnings transmission.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did oil jump on Thursday?
Supply disruption fears through the Strait of Hormuz, plus falling US inventories, pushed the WTI-tracking USO fund up 5.61% to US$158.38.
What does this mean for Brazil?
Petrobras gained 2.15% to US$21.38, and Brazil’s pre-salt supplied 82.4% of national output in July 2026, making it a prime beneficiary of higher prices.
Is Mexico benefiting?
No. The 2027 budget cuts Pemex aid by nearly 70%, leaving the company exposed to higher debt costs even as prices rise.
What is the key risk to watch?
The Strait of Hormuz and whether escalating Iranian tensions push buyers to seek Atlantic Basin barrels from Brazil and Guyana.
Market data: RT
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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