Mexico’s Year-End Tape: A Firm Peso, Record Stocks, And Thin-Liquidity Risk
Key Points
- USD/MXN held near 17.91 as the dollar stayed soft, with holiday liquidity magnifying small flows.
- Mexico’s IPC index sat at record highs near 65,636, but momentum looks stretched after a strong week.
- Investors are rewarding predictable, rules-first policy and discounting discretion-heavy economic narratives.
USD/MXN was 17.9111 at 08:19 UTC, after a daily range of 17.8463–17.9260. The backdrop remained a gentler dollar: DXY was around 98.1.
Corpay strategist Karl Schamotta summed up the prevailing view, calling the greenback “over-valued” on fundamentals. With Mexico’s domestic calendar quiet, traders focused on flows and positioning.
Reuters, via El Economista, quoted IMB Capital Quants’ Felipe Mendoza saying the peso is strong but close to zones where the market often takes profits, and that the base case is sideways consolidation with micro-moves amplified by low year-end liquidity.
Banxico’s Dec. 18 cut left the policy rate at 7.00%. A Reuters survey has also kept a wide 12-month band in view—roughly 16 to 22 pesos per dollar—with the median call pointing to mild depreciation over the next year.
Technically, the tape reads “pause, not reverse.” Four-hour RSI sat near 42.6 while daily RSI was near 32.7. Support is around 17.90, then 17.87–17.85.
Resistance starts near 17.95–17.97 and extends toward 18.07–18.19. The 4-hour MACD has improved, but the daily MACD remains below zero.
Mexican equities told a different story. The S&P/BMV IPC stood at 65,636.36, with Friday’s range at 65,507.77–65,882.59 and about 23.14 million shares in volume. The weekly gain was 2.61%. Momentum is elevated (RSI roughly 69.7 on 4H and 64.4 on 1D), making pullbacks more likely even if the trend stays up.
Offshore, EWW remains the quick Mexico proxy. Its Dec. 26 NAV was $71.09 (+0.25% on the day), with YTD NAV total return at 57.18% and assets around $1.9–$2.0 billion. Daily flow figures for Dec. 29 were not yet posted, though one-year flows were about $185.7 million.
Friday’s top IPC winners were Peñoles (+2.42%), Megacable (+2.28%), La Comer (+1.07%), Alsea (+0.99%) and Sigma (+0.75%). The biggest decliners were Liverpool (-2.37%), Regional (-1.44%), Gentera (-0.99%), Qualitas (-0.86%) and Banco del Bajío (-0.83%).
Key Facts
— Deep Dive
— For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Mexico Economy 2026: GDP, Peso, Nearshoring, Banxico and Trade
Live Market IntelligenceMexico — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Mexico — Live Market Board
+0.07%
166,334.86
-0.27%
64,301.04
+0.07%
11,186.57
+0.34%
2,891,651
-1.89%
2,461.23
+0.36%
58,401.58
-1.35%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IPC MEX | 64,301.04 | +0.07% | +12.17% | 64,254.98 | 66,121 | 65,405 | 108,886,187 |
| USD/MXN | 17.06 | -0.24% | -8.58% | 17.10 | 17.08 | 17.01 | — |
| WALMEX | 48.07 | -0.62% | -14.38% | 48.37 | 48.65 | 48.02 | 10,781,446 |
| GMEXICO | 223.28 | +0.35% | +73.59% | 222.50 | 226.18 | 222.17 | 1,325,556 |
| FEMSA | 201.19 | -0.24% | +25.67% | 201.67 | 206.71 | 199.56 | 750,706 |
| CEMEX | 19.32 | +0.89% | +19.10% | 19.15 | 19.35 | 19.04 | 14,327,054 |
| GFNORTE | 193.98 | +1.18% | +14.36% | 191.71 | 195.79 | 191.83 | 1,579,115 |
| BIMBO | 60.98 | -0.96% | +11.89% | 61.57 | 61.46 | 60.29 | 1,048,115 |
| TELEVISA | 9.71 | +0.21% | +12.78% | 9.69 | 9.75 | 9.60 | 577,851 |
| AMX | 19.80 | -0.95% | +12.53% | 19.99 | 20.05 | 19.70 | 58,058,525 |
| GAP | 366.23 | +0.43% | -21.21% | 364.68 | 370.85 | 362.82 | 226,946 |
| ASUR | 275.04 | +1.25% | -15.28% | 271.64 | 275.08 | 271.31 | 15,451 |
| OMA | 233.50 | +0.62% | -6.48% | 232.06 | 235.00 | 230.62 | 555,693 |
| KOF | 188.04 | +0.86% | +18.94% | 186.44 | 188.56 | 185.52 | 425,273 |
| GRUMA | 252.90 | +0.11% | -21.85% | 252.61 | 254.74 | 250.36 | 90,048 |
| KIMBER | 39.74 | +0.43% | +8.85% | 39.57 | 40.09 | 39.33 | 490,551 |
| AMX ADR | 23.38 | -0.23% | +22.25% | 23.43 | 23.49 | 23.06 | 1,347,445 |
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