Moody’s Holds Pemex B1 Stable as Sovereign Wave Hits Mexico
Mexico · Energy
Key Facts
—Friday affirmation: Moody’s held Pemex at B1 with a stable outlook on Friday, sparing it from the downgrade wave that hit six Mexican banks and CFE.
—September upgrade base: Moody’s had upgraded Pemex two notches to B1 in September 2025, citing the Strategic Plan, a $12 billion bond package and a 250-billion-peso fund.
—The S and P contrast: Standard and Poor’s cut its outlook on Pemex, CFE, the Nuevo Leon government and select institutions from “stable” to “negative” this week.
—Underlying debt: Pemex carries about $79 billion in debt and produces 1.6 million barrels per day, its lowest output in roughly four decades.
—Leadership transition: New chief executive Juan Carlos Carpio replaced Victor Rodriguez Padilla after a February crude spill that hit over 600 kilometers of beaches.
—The mechanism: The B1 rating assumes “Very High” government support, lifting Pemex six notches above its ca standalone credit assessment.
The Pemex rating affirmation by Moody’s lands at a delicate moment for Mexican sovereign credit perception, with the hold standing as the principal counterweight to the S&P perspectiva revision and the sovereign-linked institutional downgrade wave.
Why is the Pemex rating hold significant?
The Rio Times, the Latin American financial news outlet, reports that Moody’s Investors Service affirmed on Friday the Pemex rating at B1 with stable outlook for Petróleos Mexicanos, the Mexican state-owned oil and gas company commonly known by its short name Pemex. The affirmation occurred during a week in which Moody’s downgraded the credit ratings of BBVA México, Banorte, Santander México, Banamex, BanBajío and the Comisión Federal de Electricidad federal power utility, all institutions whose ratings carry tight linkages to the Mexican sovereign rating and whose downgrades reflected the deterioration of the sovereign-credit framework under the current Sheinbaum-administration fiscal cycle.
What is the Strategic Plan backing?
The Moody’s framework places significant weight on the Sheinbaum-administration Strategic Plan 2025-2035 announced in mid-2025, which committed the federal government to multi-year financial support for Pemex. The implementation included a $12 billion United States dollar bond support package issued in July 2025 and a 250 billion peso investment fund (approximately $13.1 billion at 19 pesos per United States dollar) established in August 2025. The 2026 federal economic package additionally allocated $14 billion to cover Pemex maturities coming due during the year.
The rating affirmation reflects Moody’s continued assessment that the government will deliver on the Strategic Plan commitments through the remainder of the framework. Should that assessment shift, the rating becomes vulnerable. The agency has stated that a deterioration of the sovereign Mexico Baa2 rating, currently under negative outlook from Moody’s, could flow through to a Pemex downgrade even with the Strategic Plan support intact, since the six notches of uplift in the joint-default analysis depend on the sovereign anchor.
How does the S&P contrast matter?
Standard and Poor’s took the opposite directional view from Moody’s during the week, revising the credit-rating perspectiva of Pemex, the Comisión Federal de Electricidad, the Nuevo León state government and select Mexican financial institutions from “stable” to “negative.” The divergent agency posture creates analytical complexity for international investors: Moody’s holds with stable outlook while S&P signals deterioration on the underlying credit. The combination tends to compress the secondary-market trading band of affected securities until one agency moves to align with the other.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Pemex?
Petróleos Mexicanos, commonly known as Pemex, is the Mexican state-owned oil and gas company founded in 1938 following the nationalization of the Mexican oil industry. It is one of the most indebted oil companies globally, with financial debt of approximately $79 billion United States dollars.
What does B1 stable mean?
B1 is a Moody’s speculative-grade rating four notches below investment grade. Stable outlook means Moody’s does not expect a rating change in the next 12 to 18 months. The Pemex B1 reflects six notches of uplift from the company’s ca standalone baseline credit assessment, granted because of assumed sovereign support.
What is the Strategic Plan 2025-2035?
The Strategic Plan 2025-2035 is the Sheinbaum-administration multi-year framework to stabilize Pemex finances through federal capital injections, debt-maturity management, supplier-payment normalization and the operational restructuring required to address the production decline.
Who runs Pemex now?
Juan Carlos Carpio became chief executive officer earlier in 2026, replacing Víctor Rodríguez Padilla following the February 2026 crude spill that affected more than 600 kilometers of Mexican Gulf of Mexico beaches.
What is the sovereign Mexico rating?
Moody’s rates the United Mexican States sovereign at Baa2 with negative outlook, two notches above investment-grade threshold. A sovereign downgrade would feed through to Pemex via the joint-default analysis framework, regardless of company-specific operating improvements.
Connected Coverage
The Friday rating action sits within the Mexican macro context analyzed in our Mexico 2026 economy investor guide and connects to the broader Latin American oil-sector dynamic in our coverage of the ExxonMobil Venezuela talks.
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