Latin American Pulse for Saturday, February 14, 2026
Executive Summary
Read about Latin American Pulse for Saturday, February 14, 2026 on The Rio Times.
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Executive Summary
This is part of The Rio Times’ comprehensive coverage of Latin American financial markets and economic developments.
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The Big Picture: A fire at Havana’s Nico Lopez refinery on Friday—Cuba’s main fuel processing facility—escalated a crisis that has now shuttered 30 hotels (up from eight yesterday), pushed blackouts past 20 hours daily, and drawn a UN warning of humanitarian “collapse.” Aeroflot confirmed cancellation of all Cuba service from February 24, completing Russia’s evacuation. The Cuban embassy in London is publicly contradicting UK government warnings about conditions on the island.
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Venezuela’s February 13 prisoner deadline passed without the amnesty bill becoming law. NPR reported Friday that legal experts say the government could release all prisoners immediately by executive order—the bill is a political instrument, not a legal necessity. Foro Penal revised its count to approximately 380 confirmed releases (down from 431) and nearly 690 still detained (up from ~600), suggesting earlier government claims were inflated.
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Mexico’s Senate unanimously approved a constitutional reform to reduce the workweek from 48 to 40 hours—the most significant labor overhaul in 108 years, affecting 13.4 million workers. The 121–0 vote united even opposition parties behind the principle; the bill now moves to the Chamber of Deputies. Critics warn the reform maintains a six-day week and leaves loopholes that could blunt its impact on workers in the informal economy.
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Brazil’s Carnival begins today as the country enters its most contested election cycle since 2022. The presidential race has narrowed to a statistical tie (Lula 37%, Flávio Bolsonaro 33%), while the Banco Master scandal—now implicating Supreme Court justices, governors, and a former Lula minister—engulfs all three branches of government. Brazil just recorded its worst-ever Transparency International corruption score at 35/100. Political Brasília pauses through Ash Wednesday.
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Argentina’s labor reform now heads to the lower house after Thursday’s 42–30 Senate passage amid Molotov cocktails and street clashes outside Congress. A union general strike is widely expected. January inflation accelerated to 2.9% month-on-month—the fifth consecutive increase—deepening the INDEC credibility crisis. Colombia is fighting on three fronts: a flood emergency across 16 departments (44 dead, 72,000 families affected), a COP$8 trillion emergency tax battle with the corporate sector, and an escalating trade war with Ecuador where reciprocal 30% tariffs threaten $2.8 billion in bilateral commerce.
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The U.S. January CPI came in at 2.4% YoY—below the 2.5% consensus—easing pressure on Latin American central banks weighing rate cuts and giving governments more fiscal breathing room. The softer inflation print is the most significant global macro signal for the region’s policy trajectory heading into a year of elections in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru.
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Risk Snapshot
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| Country | Risk Signal | Key Driver |
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| Cuba | Critical | Nico Lopez refinery fire Fri; 30 hotels closed (up from 8); blackouts 20+ hrs; UN collapse warning |
| Venezuela | Elevated | Feb 13 prisoner deadline missed; amnesty bill is political, not legal; Foro Penal revises to ~380/~690 |
| Mexico | Constructive | Senate passes 40-hr workweek 121–0; biggest labor reform in 108 yrs; 1,126 mining concessions revoked |
| Brazil | Elevated | Carnival begins; election tie (Lula 37%, Flávio 33%); Banco Master scandal engulfs all 3 branches |
| Argentina | Elevated | Labor reform to lower house; street violence at Congress; general strike expected; CPI 2.9% MoM |
| Colombia | Critical | Floods: 44 dead, 72K families; emergency tax battle; Ecuador trade war ($2.8B); Mar 8 elections |
| Ecuador | Elevated | Trade war with Colombia; 30% reciprocal tariffs; electricity suspended; record 52 homicides/100K |
| Chile | Constructive | Kast inauguration Mar 11; Bachelet UN candidacy; orderly equity pullback |
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Cuba — Refinery Fire Hits Havana as Hotel Closures Triple to 30; Blackouts Exceed 20 Hours; UN Warns of Collapse
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What Happened
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- —Refinery Fire: A fire broke out Friday at the Nico Lopez refinery in Havana Bay—Cuba’s main fuel processing facility and the only one capable of processing domestic crude. The Ministry of Energy said the blaze, in a warehouse on the refinery grounds, was extinguished with no injuries. The cause is under investigation. A large plume of black smoke rose over the capital, becoming a visceral symbol of the crisis.
- —Hotel Closures Triple: AFP now reports approximately 30 hotels and resorts temporarily closed across Varadero, Cayo Coco, Cayo Santa María, and Holguín—tripling from yesterday’s eight. The government’s “consolidation” strategy is accelerating as fuel rationing tightens. Tourism workers remain on week-on, week-off rotations, sleeping in nearby hotels because there is no fuel for commuting. Meliá has further reduced availability.
- —Blackouts Worsen: Power outages now exceed 20 hours daily, up from 10–15 hours earlier this week. Buses and trains are cut, hospitals have reduced staffing, universities moved classes online, and garbage is piling up in Havana because collection trucks have no fuel. UN Secretary-General Guterres warned of humanitarian “collapse” if energy needs go unmet. No foreign fuel tanker has arrived in weeks.
- —Embassy vs. Reality: The Cuban embassy in London posted on Instagram that tourism “remains fully operational”—directly contradicting the UK Foreign Office, which warned of blackouts exceeding 24 hours affecting water, refrigeration, and communications. Kremlin spokesperson Peskov acknowledged the situation is “truly critical.”
- —Airline Update: Aeroflot confirmed cancellation of all Cuba service from February 24, completing Russia’s evacuation. Air Canada remains suspended through May. Mexico’s 814 tons of humanitarian aid arrived Thursday. Only Iberia now maintains scheduled commercial service (Madrid–Havana).
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Why It Matters
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The Nico Lopez fire—even if contained—at Cuba’s primary refinery during an energy emergency concentrates minds. A country already unable to fuel its airports, power its grid, or run its buses cannot afford any disruption at the one facility that processes what little crude it has. The fire will accelerate calls from within the regime for a political accommodation with Washington.
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The embassy contradiction reveals an institution losing coherence: marketing normality while the state closes 30 hotels. With 300,000 Cubans dependent on tourism and Cuba ending 2025 at 1.8 million visitors and 21.5% occupancy, the economic damage is irreversible for 2026.
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Risk Level: Critical
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Live Market IntelligenceLatin America — Cross-Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Latin America — Cross-Market Board
-1.20%
175,739
-1.20%
65,973
-0.79%
10,928
-1.17%
3,235,295
-1.37%
2,307.67
UNCH
56,917.82
-0.86%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 175,739 | -1.20% | +29.89% | 177,866 | — | — | — |
| IPSA | 10,928 | -1.17% | — | 11,057 | 11,057 | 10,909 | 1,159,494,712 |
| IPC MEX | 65,973 | -0.79% | +17.05% | 66,496 | 66,615 | 65,875 | 124,716,058 |
| MERVAL | 3,235,295 | -1.37% | +56.75% | 3,280,224 | 3,312,466 | 3,229,119 | — |
| COLCAP | 2,307.67 | UNCH | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| BVL PERÚ | 56,917.82 | -0.86% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.14 | +0.57% | -7.81% | 5.11 | 5.14 | 5.11 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.87 | +0.80% | -9.79% | 5.82 | 5.87 | 5.82 | — |
| USD/MXN | 17.51 | +0.22% | -6.17% | 17.47 | 17.53 | 17.49 | — |
| USD/CLP | 932.70 | +0.85% | -0.54% | 924.86 | 932.70 | 932.70 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,235 | -0.35% | -19.37% | 3,246 | 3,245 | 3,235 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.41 | +0.52% | -1.92% | 3.39 | 3.41 | 3.40 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,482 | -0.37% | +17.91% | 1,488 | 1,482 | 1,482 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.22 | +0.00% | +0.77% | 40.22 | 40.22 | 40.22 | — |
| USD/PYG | 6,045 | -0.17% | -20.85% | 6,055 | 6,045 | 6,045 | — |
| USD/BOB | 10.35 | +2.07% | +53.28% | 10.14 | 10.35 | 10.35 | — |
| USD/DOP | 58.72 | +0.41% | -1.34% | 58.48 | 58.72 | 58.30 | — |
| USD/CRC | 448.53 | -0.06% | -8.88% | 448.82 | 448.53 | 448.53 | — |
Venezuela — Feb 13 Prisoner Deadline Passes Without Amnesty Law; NPR Reports Releases Don’t Require Legislation
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What Happened
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- —Deadline Missed: The February 13 prisoner release deadline—set by Jorge Rodríguez himself—passed without the amnesty bill becoming law. The National Assembly debate remains suspended after Thursday’s clash over Article 5, which requires beneficiaries to appear in court and acknowledge guilt. The resumed vote is scheduled for February 19. No government statement acknowledged the missed deadline.
- —Amnesty Is Political, Not Legal: NPR reported Friday that legal experts say the government could release all remaining prisoners immediately by executive order. The amnesty bill is a political instrument designed to extract public acknowledgment of guilt—not a legal prerequisite for freedom. The delays are a deliberate choice, not a procedural necessity.
- —Prisoner Count Revised: Foro Penal revised to approximately 380 confirmed releases since January 8 (down from 431), with nearly 690 still detained (up from ~600). The downward revision of releases and upward revision of detainees suggests government claims were inflated.
- —Wright Tour Continues: U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright continued meetings in Venezuela Friday following Thursday’s Orinoco Belt tour with Acting President Delcy Rodríguez. ConocoPhillips and other companies remain in “active discussions” over nationalized asset compensation.
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Why It Matters
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The NPR reporting shifts the frame: if executive releases are available immediately, then every day of continued detention is a deliberate political decision. Washington is in a difficult position—Wright is touring oil facilities while the deadline the U.S. helped negotiate passes without consequence. Thursday’s dueling protests revealed a Venezuela where the fear barrier has broken. The question is whether the missed deadline triggers any policy response or the oil-for-reform bargain absorbs the delay.
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Risk Level: Elevated
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Mexico — Senate Passes 40-Hour Workweek Reform 121–0; Biggest Labor Overhaul in 108 Years Affects 13.4 Million Workers
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What Happened
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- —40-Hour Workweek Passes Senate: Mexico’s Senate unanimously approved a constitutional reform to reduce the legal workweek from 48 to 40 hours on Wednesday with 121 votes in favor and none against—the most significant overhaul of labor standards since the 48-hour week was established 108 years ago. The reform, introduced by President Sheinbaum in December, would phase in gradually: 46 hours in 2027, 44 in 2028, 42 in 2029, and 40 by 2030, affecting 13.4 million workers. The bill now moves to the Chamber of Deputies, where Morena holds the votes to pass it.
- —Criticism from Both Sides: Opposition lawmakers and unions called it a watered-down proposal: it maintains a six-day workweek with only one mandatory rest day, increases the overtime cap from 9 to 12 hours weekly, and does not mandate two days off for every five worked. Accounting specialists warned that more than half of Mexico’s workforce operates in the informal economy, limiting the reform’s reach. Small business associations cautioned that reduced hours without a productivity strategy could pressure micro and SME employers.
- —Mining Concessions Revoked: The Sheinbaum government reported it has recovered 1,126 mining concessions covering 889,512 hectares—approximately the size of the state of Querétaro—including more than 700 within Protected Natural Areas.
- —Markets: The IPC rallied 0.83% Friday to 71,479—a new all-time high—as the soft U.S. CPI revived risk appetite. The peso held near ~17.20. Banxico remains at 7.00%. Reports that Trump plans to roll back steel and aluminum tariffs could benefit Mexican exporters.
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Why It Matters
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The unanimous 121–0 vote is a political achievement for Sheinbaum, uniting even PAN and PRI opposition behind the principle of a shorter workweek—a reform that eluded her predecessor. The four-year phase-in is designed to absorb the shock, but the real test begins in the Chamber of Deputies, where secondary legislation must close the loopholes unions identified. With a 13% minimum wage increase already in effect for 2026 and workplace violence prevention reforms live since January 15, Mexico is rewriting its labor compact in real time—with profound implications for USMCA renegotiation this summer and nearshoring competitiveness.
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Risk Level: Constructive
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Brazil — Carnival Begins as Election Race Narrows to Statistical Tie; Banco Master Scandal Engulfs All Three Branches of Government
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What Happened
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- —Carnival Begins: Rio Carnival officially launches today with 462 blocos and five nights of Sambódromo parades (Special Group Feb 15–17, Champions Parade Feb 21). The Cordão da Bola Preta expects over one million. The holiday pauses political Brasília through Ash Wednesday and closes B3 Monday–Tuesday—a real-economy test of consumer confidence in an election year.
- —Election Race Tightens: The presidential race is now a statistical tie (Lula 37%, Flávio Bolsonaro 33% per Genial/Quaest)—the tightest first-round scenario since polling began. In a simulated runoff, Lula’s lead has shrunk to five points from a 16-point cushion six months ago. The consolidation of the right accelerated after São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas endorsed Flávio in late January. The October 4 general election is now a genuine contest, not the comfortable reelection many expected.
- —Banco Master Deepens: What Finance Minister Haddad called potentially the largest bank fraud in Brazilian history now implicates two Supreme Court justices (Toffoli and Moraes), governors across the spectrum, a former Lula justice minister, and the largest Bolsonaro 2022 donor. With R$40 billion in estimated losses and 1.6 million affected creditors, comparisons to Lava Jato are becoming routine. Brazil just recorded its worst-ever Transparency International corruption score at 35/100.
- —Markets: The Ibovespa fell 0.69% Friday to 186,464 on its last pre-Carnival session, dragged by Vale’s $3.8 billion Q4 net loss and BB Seguridade (−9.6%). Three consecutive red sessions erased 3,535 points from Wednesday’s 190,000 peak. The real held near R$5.20.
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Why It Matters
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Brazil enters its most consequential election cycle since 2022 with institutions under simultaneous pressure. The Banco Master scandal threatens the Supreme Court’s credibility at the moment it most needs public trust to defend the democratic gains of Bolsonaro’s conviction. If the scandal continues to implicate figures across the spectrum, it fuels the anti-establishment narrative Flávio is already exploiting—his central campaign plank is amnesty for January 8 participants, including his jailed father. Carnival provides a five-day pause, but the political reckoning resumes immediately after.
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Risk Level: Elevated
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Argentina — Labor Reform Heads to Lower House as General Strike Looms; Milei’s Broadest Coalition Meets Street Resistance
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What Happened
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- —Reform to Lower House: Milei’s flagship labor reform passed the Senate 42–30 Thursday after a 13-hour session and now moves to the Chamber of Deputies, with the ruling coalition targeting a vote before February 27. The 42–30 margin drew support from La Libertad Avanza, UCR, PRO, and provincial caucuses—Milei’s broadest legislative coalition. The reform caps redundancy payments, introduces company-level bargaining, creates platform hiring categories, and limits essential-service strikes. A union general strike is widely expected.
- —Street Violence: Trade union protesters converged on Congress during Thursday’s vote, hurling Molotov cocktails and clashing with police. Opponents argue the reform strips protections against unjust dismissal, extends the workday to 12 hours, and guts collective bargaining. The images of fire outside Congress while lawmakers voted inside define the political tension.
- —Inflation Accelerating: January CPI hit 2.9% month-on-month—the fifth consecutive month of acceleration—driven by food (+4.7%), restaurants (+4.1%), and communication (+3.6%). The INDEC credibility crisis under new head Pedro Lines continues to undermine confidence in official data.
- —Markets: The MERVAL fell another 1.25% Friday to 2,816,128, extending its decline to over 14% from the January 28 all-time high. Milei attends Trump’s Board of Peace in Washington February 19.
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Why It Matters
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The 42–30 margin represents a broader coalition than Milei has assembled for any previous legislation—proof that his post-midterm congressional strength can translate into structural reform. But the street violence foreshadows a difficult implementation. The political question is whether Molotov cocktails at Congress help or hurt Milei’s narrative of a country in need of modernization. With inflation re-accelerating and a general strike looming, the reform must survive both legislative and social resistance.
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Risk Level: Elevated
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Colombia — Floods, Emergency Tax, and Ecuador Trade War Converge as March 8 Elections Approach
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What Happened
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- —Floods Continue: Emergency operations are active across 16 departments under the 30-day decree Petro signed Wednesday, with 44 dead, 72,000 families affected, and 870+ km² submerged. Córdoba worst hit: 156,000 affected, 80% underwater, 4,300 homes destroyed, 1,200 cattle dead. The COP$8 trillion (~$2.2 billion) emergency tax targeting ~15,000 companies remains contentious ahead of March 8 elections. Agricultural losses in banana, plantain, and coffee expected to drive food price inflation through H1 2026.
- —Markets: The COLCAP rallied 1.73% Friday to 2,369, recovering most of Thursday’s selloff as the soft U.S. CPI provided a floor.
- —Ecuador Trade War Intensifies: The reciprocal 30% tariffs between Colombia and Ecuador that took effect February 1 remain in force after a Quito summit on February 6 ended without agreement. Ecuador raised Colombia’s oil pipeline transport fee by 900% (from $3 to $30 per barrel) in retaliation for Bogotá’s suspension of electricity exports. The dispute threatens $2.8 billion in annual bilateral trade. Border truckers and merchants staged joint protests at Rumichaca, warning 38% of border city Ipiales’ economy depends on cross-border commerce. Colombia has filed a complaint before the Andean Community tribunal.
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Why It Matters
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Colombia is now fighting on three fronts simultaneously: a humanitarian disaster from flooding, the emergency tax battle with the corporate sector, and a trade war with Ecuador that could cut off electricity Colombia supplies and raise oil transport costs for Ecopetrol. Each front individually would challenge any government; together, they create a political pressure cooker ahead of March 8 elections. Petro asked Trump to mediate, floating a trilateral anti-narcotics alliance—a wildcard that could reshape the dispute.
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Risk Level: Critical
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Regional Snapshot
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Ecuador
\nThe Ecuador–Colombia trade war entered its second week with reciprocal 30% tariffs still in force after the February 6 Quito summit failed. Ecuador raised Colombia’s oil pipeline transport fee 900% ($3 to $30/barrel). Colombia suspended electricity exports—critical given Ecuador gets ~10% of power from Colombia during dry season. Border protests at Rumichaca. Ecuador closed 2025 with a record 52 homicides per 100,000 (one per hour). Noboa positioning as Trump ally on narcotics enforcement; Petro asked Trump to mediate.
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Chile
\nThe IPSA fell 0.70% Friday to 10,898, extending its pullback from all-time highs for a second session. Chile remains the world’s top-performing equity market over three months at +36.6%. Copper volatility pressuring mining names. Kast inauguration March 11 with a technocratic, pro-business cabinet. Bachelet’s UN Secretary-General candidacy formalized.
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Panama
\nCK Hutchison’s three-front legal escalation (ICC arbitration, investment treaty claim, Maersk threat) continued without new developments Friday. Port operations under Maersk’s temporary administration uninterrupted. China’s investment freeze and cargo rerouting guidance remain in place. The $23 billion port sale to the BlackRock-led consortium remains entangled.
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Haiti
\nPrime Minister Fils-Aimé now leads executive authority alone after the Transitional Presidential Council’s mandate expired February 7. A federal judge blocked the Trump administration’s TPS termination for Haiti on February 2, temporarily protecting ~270,000 Haitians in the U.S. The UN authorized a 5,550-member gang suppression force, but funding and deployment remain uncertain. Gang control continues to spread beyond Port-au-Prince.
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Peru
\nU.S. warning issued after a judicial ruling limited oversight over the Chinese-operated Chancay megaport. April 12 general elections approaching with crime and corruption as top voter concerns. Protests over extortion continuing.
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Bolivia
\nPresident Rodrigo Paz consolidating governance. U.S. Embassy issued a health alert February 12. Deputy Secretary Landau met Foreign Minister Aramayo. MCC selected Bolivia for new partnership. Lithium sector opening proceeds. $200 million World Bank emergency loan supporting cash transfers. Departmental elections March 22.
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Sports & Culture
\nRio Carnival officially begins today (Saturday Feb 14) with 462 blocos and five nights of Sambódromo parades—the Cordão da Bola Preta expects over one million. Valentine’s Day. Milan-Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics continue. U.S. markets closed Monday for Presidents’ Day. Haiti soccer league final today in Pétion-Ville.
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Markets at a Glance
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| Index / Currency | Level | Daily Change | Context |
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| Mexico IPC | 71,479 | +0.83% (Fri) | New all-time high; CPI relief rally; 40-hr workweek passed |
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 186,464 | −0.69% (Fri) | Vale −2.8% on $3.8B Q4 loss; 3rd straight red; B3 closed Mon–Tue |
| MERVAL (Argentina) | 2,816,128 | −1.25% (Fri) | Down −14% from Jan 28 ATH; reform passage not stemming selling |
| COLCAP (Colombia) | 2,369 | +1.73% (Fri) | Bounce after Thu −2.00%; Ecuador trade war + floods + emergency tax |
| Chile IPSA | 10,898 | −0.70% (Fri) | Orderly pullback from ATH zone; +36.6% over 3 months |
| USD/BRL | ~R$5.20 | Slight weakening | Touched R$5.199 Thu; near May 2024 lows |
| S&P 500 | 6,836 | +0.05% (Fri) | CPI 2.4% YoY below consensus; ~1.5% lower for week; closed Mon |
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The Week Ahead
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| Date | Event | Significance |
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| Feb 14–18 | Rio Carnival (Sambódromo Special Group Feb 15–17) | B3 closed Mon–Tue; consumer confidence gauge; Brasília paused |
| Feb 16 | U.S. Presidents’ Day (NYSE closed) | No U.S. trading; EM exposed with no exit |
| Feb 18 | B3 reopens; FOMC minutes released | Post-Carnival repricing; Fed rate path after CPI beat |
| Feb 19 | Venezuela amnesty bill debate resumes | Second vote after postponement; Feb 13 deadline already missed |
| Feb 19 | Milei at Trump’s Board of Peace (Washington) | Bilateral optics amid MERVAL −14% drawdown |
| Late Feb | Mexico Chamber of Deputies: 40-hr workweek debate | Final legislative hurdle; Morena holds majority |
| Feb 24 | Aeroflot cancels all Cuba service | Russia completes evacuation; only Iberia remains |
| By Feb 27 | Argentina Chamber of Deputies labor reform vote target | Final hurdle for Milei’s reform; general strike expected |
| Through Mar 11 | Cuba jet fuel suspension window | Nico Lopez fire complicates; 30 hotels closed; Aeroflot ends Feb 24 |
| Mar 8 | Colombia legislative elections & primaries | Bellwether amid floods, emergency tax, Ecuador trade war |
| Mar 11 | Kast inauguration (Chile) | Policy direction, cabinet; Cuba fuel window end-date |
| Mar 18 | BCB rate decision (Brazil) | Expected start of easing cycle from 15% Selic |
| Mar 22 | Bolivia departmental elections | Test of Paz consolidation |
| Apr 12 | Peru general elections | Crime, corruption, Chancay megaport as top issues |
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Related: Brazil Morning Call | Global Economy Briefing