The Rio Times · Chile Market Report
Morning Edition · March 25, 2026 · Covering March 24 Session
The Big Three
1
The IPSA fell for the fifth consecutive session, dropping to 10,206 — its longest losing streak since the war began. Diario Estrategia reported a session decline of 0.93%. The index barely tested 10,230 before sellers pushed it to a low of 10,122 — briefly threatening the psychologically critical 10,000 level. The cumulative five-day loss now exceeds 4%, and Chile remains the worst-performing LATAM equity market despite Monday’s global ceasefire rally. The decoupling from regional peers deepened on Tuesday as Mexico surged 2.18%.
2
The peso gave back Monday’s 1.83% surge as the dollar recovered globally. The DXY rose 0.31% on Tuesday as Iran’s renewed missile strikes on Israel erased ceasefire optimism. Copper traded mixed: Comex futures held near $5.40 but London spot was softer. The peso’s reversal alongside the equity decline removes the equity-FX divergence narrative from Monday — both are now signaling caution ahead of the IPoM.
3
The BCCh IPoM is imminent — the single most important catalyst for Chilean assets this quarter. With swap rates having priced in rate-hike risk last week and five straight IPSA losses, the market is positioned for hawkish news. A neutral or dovish IPoM that treats the oil shock as transitory could trigger a sharp relief rally. A hawkish shift confirming rate-hike risk would accelerate the slide toward the 10,018 support zone.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Close | Chg |
| S&P IPSA | 10,206.16 | −0.21% |
| USD/CLP | ~916 | +0.6% |
| Copper (Comex) | ~$5.40/lb | −0.9% |
| Brent Crude | $99.54 | −0.40% |
| BCCh TPM | 4.50% | IPoM imminent |
| S&P 500 | 6,557.19 | −0.36% |
02 Equities
The Chile stock market IPSA today continued its divergence from LATAM peers, declining for a fifth straight session while Colombia and Mexico posted gains. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Chilean stock market and Latin American financial markets. The selling pressure is now structural rather than event-driven, suggesting pre-IPoM hedging and potential fund rebalancing outflows are dominating.
| Top Gainers | Chg |
| Vapores | +1.8% |
| Engie Chile | +1.2% |
| Enel Chile | +0.6% |
| Top Losers | Chg |
| Falabella | −2.5% |
| SQM-B | −2.1% |
| Bci | −1.8% |
| Cencosud | −1.5% |
| Latam Airlines | −1.2% |
Falabella and Cencosud continued to weaken on consumer sentiment concerns, while SQM-B extended its slide on weak lithium pricing. Vapores was the defensive winner, benefiting from the freight rate spike caused by Hormuz shipping disruptions. The losers list shows high-weight index names (Falabella, Cencosud, Bci, Latam) — heavy-cap selling that amplifies the IPSA decline.
03 Currency
The peso reversed Monday’s sharp gains, weakening to approximately CLP 916 as the DXY recovered 0.31% and copper softened. The move erased most of the 1.83% surge from 927 to 910, confirming that Monday’s peso rally was driven by the global Trump ceasefire excitement rather than durable Chile-specific flows. With Iran’s denial and renewed attacks, the macro tailwinds for the peso have partially evaporated. The IPoM’s inflation projections will determine whether the BCCh is leaning toward tightening or can maintain its easing bias.
04 Technical Analysis
Five consecutive red candles have driven the IPSA to 10,206 — dangerously close to the 10,018 support zone. The MACD histogram at −14.34 remains barely negative, but signal lines at −141.26 and −155.60 are deeply bearish with no crossover signal. RSI at 40.74/35.99 is approaching oversold territory, with the slow RSI already near the 36 level that historically triggers bounces. The 200-day SMA at 9,574 sits 6.2% below, confirming the primary uptrend holds. Tuesday’s intraday low of 10,122 tested the zone just above 10,018 — a breach would open the path to 9,574.
05 Key Levels
| Level | Price | Source |
| Resistance 2 | 10,467 | 50-day EMA |
| Resistance 1 | 10,393 | 20-day EMA |
| Tuesday Close | 10,206.16 | March 24, 2026 |
| Support 1 | 10,018 | March low zone |
| Support 2 | 9,574 | 200-day SMA |
06 Global Context
Chile’s persistent underperformance is unusual given its status as a net oil importer that should benefit from lower crude. The explanation lies in pre-IPoM positioning and index rebalancing outflows. Wall Street fell 0.36% as Iran’s renewed strikes undercut Trump’s ceasefire narrative. US Treasury yields rose to 4.39%, and US March PMI showed the weakest private-sector growth in 11 months — stoking stagflation fears that weigh on EM risk appetite.
07 Looking Ahead
The IPoM is the week’s binary event. Five straight losses with RSI near oversold create the setup for a sharp relief rally if the BCCh maintains its easing bias. Conversely, a hawkish IPoM would confirm the market’s worst fears and likely push the IPSA below 10,018 toward the 200-day SMA at 9,574. Copper’s direction remains critical — sustained strength above $5.30 limits peso downside and supports the structural Chile thesis. Trump’s ceasefire window expires Saturday.
08 Verdict
Bias: BEARISH, maintained. Five straight losses, RSI approaching oversold, and high-weight names leading the decline. The IPoM is the only catalyst that can reverse this. A close above 10,393 upgrades to Neutral. Below 10,018 accelerates toward 9,574. The structural thesis (Kast reforms, copper, fiscal) remains intact but is being overwhelmed by positioning flows.