Ibovespa Near 161,000 As 2026 Politics And Rate-Cut Bets Drive A Thin Tape
Key Points
- Post-Christmas liquidity was light, so politics headlines moved prices quickly.
- Rate-cut expectations steadied equities even as momentum cooled.
- Global cues split: precious metals hit records, oil fell, and iron ore ended the week softer.
B3 is closed Saturday; Friday’s Ibovespa close was 160,896.64 (+0.27%), within 159,358.93–160,913.32, on 2.63 million trades and R$14,986,899,418 ($2.8b) in financial volume.
After Jair Bolsonaro’s camp signaled Flávio Bolsonaro as a 2026 pre-candidate, strategist Gustavo Cruz (RB Investimentos) said investors see Flávio competitive for a runoff, but less competitive than centrist governors in a second round. Our reporting has shown that the broader 2026 field is increasingly viewed by markets as a tailwind for Brazilian equities, with investors betting on a shift toward more orthodox economic management regardless of which center-right or right-of-center candidate ultimately prevails.
Felipe Cima (Manchester Investimentos) said desks are watching whether candidates can lower rejection while keeping an economically credible message and avoiding interventionist surprises.
With Selic still in restrictive territory—our reporting shows the benchmark rate remains in the mid‑single digits (around 10–11%) in real terms after stripping out inflation—desks cited IPCA-15 as reinforcing expectations that cuts could start as early as March, though the central bank has pushed back on reading signals and kept uncertainty in play. The dollar ended at R$5.5451 per $ (+0.25%).
The central bank sold $2b in line auctions; reported FX flow was -$3.363b through Dec 19 and -$6.472b in the Dec 15–19 week.
Ibovespa Near 161,000 As 2026 Politics And Rate-Cut Bets Drive A Thin Tape
Top gainers: Braskem +4.25% to R$7.85 ($1) on deal-linked developments; CPFL +3.38% to R$53.23 ($10); Hapvida +2.83% to R$14.55 ($3); Azzas 2154 +2.69% to R$24.46 ($5); Vamos +2.51% to R$3.27 ($1).
Biggest decliners: GPA -4.26% to R$3.60 ($1); Cury -0.96% to R$31.88 ($6); Vivara -0.93% to R$33.02 ($6); Totvs -0.91% to R$42.38 ($8); Eneva -0.84% to R$20.09 ($4). Outside the index, Azul’s special unit (AZUL54) fell about 26% amid restructuring mechanics and a new trading format.
Abroad, U.S. equities ended lower (S&P 500 -0.03%, Nasdaq -0.09%, Dow -0.04%). Precious metals hit records, while oil fell and iron ore ended the week softer; oil fell more than 2% on oversupply concerns; iron ore rose on the day but finished the week softer, with port inventories cited around 148.8 million tonnes.
EWZ closed at $31.73 on 15.8m shares; AUM $6.5b; shares outstanding 206.4m; flows +6.35% (1M), +11.95% (3M), +45.35% (YTD).
On B3, BOVA11 ranged R$156.22 ($29)–R$157.97 ($29), opened R$156.54 ($29) vs prior close R$157.43 ($29), with 20,265 trades.
Charts: the daily trend is still up; the 4-hour view is range-bound near the highs.
Key Facts
— Deep Dive
— For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Ibovespa, Merval, COLCAP, IPSA and IPC Guide
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
-0.27%
166,334.86
-0.27%
64,301.04
+0.07%
11,186.57
+0.34%
2,891,651
-1.89%
2,461.23
+0.36%
58,401.58
-1.35%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 166,334.86 | -0.27% | +21.85% | 166,783.57 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
Read More from The Rio Times