B3 / Ibovespa Daily Report · March 12, 2026 · Covering March 11 Session
02Market Commentary
Wednesday’s Ibovespa session was a tale of two forces: Petrobras alone accounted for the index’s gain, while the rest of the market struggled under the weight of global risk aversion tied to the Iran conflict. The index opened at 183,446, dipped to an intraday low of 182,021 in the morning before Petrobras-led buying pushed it to a high of 185,714, only to give back gains in the afternoon as Wall Street weakened. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of B3 and Latin American financial markets.
The oil narrative dominated the session. New attacks on commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz overnight reignited supply fears, pushing Brent 4.8% higher to $91.98. Iran’s military spokesman warned that oil could reach $200 per barrel, while the IEA agreed to its largest-ever emergency reserve release of 400 million barrels — a measure analysts deemed insufficient to offset Hormuz disruption. President Trump countered by telling Axios the war would end “soon,” but markets remained skeptical.
On the domestic front, January retail sales surprised to the upside with a 0.4% monthly gain versus the −0.1% consensus, accumulating a 2.8% annual increase. XP economist Rodolfo Margato noted the result offset December’s 1.0% monthly decline and signaled that domestic activity should regain momentum in the first half of 2026 after a weak second half of 2025. Election polls from Genial/Quaest showed a technical tie between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in second-round simulations, adding a political dimension to market positioning.
The USD/BRL closed essentially flat at R$ 5.1593, up a marginal 0.03% after two consecutive sessions of real appreciation. The DXY strengthened 0.38% to 99.210, reflecting dollar demand amid the geopolitical turbulence. Brazil’s central bank data showed a negative total capital flow of $3.9 billion in March through March 6 — the first week of the Iran conflict — highlighting the pressure on emerging-market currencies. The carry trade differential of 1,125 bps (Selic at 15% vs Fed at 3.50–3.75%) continued to provide structural support for the real.
In the corporate space, Raízen’s extrajudicial restructuring filing was the session’s most significant corporate event. The R$ 65 billion restructuring is Brazil’s largest ever, dwarfing GPA’s R$ 4.5 billion filing from the previous day. The plan may involve converting approximately 40% of the debt into equity, which would massively dilute existing shareholders. Cury and SmartFit both rallied on strong quarterly earnings, while Telefônica Brasil (VIVT3) slumped after UBS BB cut its rating to Sell.
03Technical Analysis
The Ibovespa marked its third consecutive session of gains, climbing from the March 7 low near 178,557 to close at 183,969. Despite the recovery, the index remains well below its February all-time high near 192,624 and the 50-day moving average zone around 184,320–184,725. The session’s 3,693-point intraday range (182,021 to 185,714) reflected the tug-of-war between Petrobras-led buying and broader risk-off sentiment.
The MACD signal is still negative, with the histogram at −1,404.28 (MACD line 2,355.69 vs signal line 951.41). While both lines are trending upward from the March lows, the histogram remains firmly below zero, indicating that bearish momentum has not fully unwound. The RSI at 57.86 has crossed above the 50 midline, a constructive signal, with the secondary RSI at 51.53 confirming the neutral-to-bullish shift.
On the Ichimoku framework, price is trading above the cloud with the Tenkan and Kijun converging near the 183,858–184,321 zone. A sustained close above 184,725 (the upper visible resistance level and approximate Bollinger upper band area) would confirm the recovery trend and open a path toward 186,000–187,000. The 200-day SMA at 152,307 remains far below, underscoring the primary uptrend’s structural integrity.
Support & Resistance
| Level | Points | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 2 | 184,725 | Upper chart level / BB upper band zone |
| Resistance 1 | 184,321 | Ichimoku Tenkan–Kijun cluster |
| Close | 183,969 | March 11, 2026 |
| Support 1 | 183,858 | Ichimoku Kijun-sen |
| Support 2 | 179,319 | Bollinger midline / prior consolidation |
| Support 3 | 177,570 | Senkou Span A / cloud top |
| Structural Support | 152,307 | 200-day SMA |
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04Forward Look
The Copom meets next week with markets expecting a 50 bps cut to 14.50%. Thursday’s IPCA reading will be the last major input before the decision. Oil-driven inflation risks could complicate the dovish narrative, though the Selic at 15% provides ample room to begin easing.
The Fed meets concurrently with a 99.4% probability of holding rates at 3.50–3.75%. Post-CPI, traders shifted the first cut from July to September. The dot plot and Powell’s press conference will set the tone for rate expectations through mid-year.
Trump signaled the war will end “soon,” but Hormuz remains effectively closed and tanker attacks continue. The IEA’s 400-million-barrel SPR release is the largest ever but may be insufficient. Brent above $90 sustains Petrobras as an index buffer while pressuring inflation expectations globally.
The Genial/Quaest poll showing a Lula–Flávio Bolsonaro technical tie introduces a new source of positioning risk. As polling narrows, expect fiscal policy speculation and sector rotation to intensify in the months ahead.
05Verdict
Key Facts
— The Ibovespa‘s third straight gain is encouraging on the surface, but the quality of the advance remains suspect. Petrobras single-handedly propped up the index, and the below-average volume of R$ 26.5 billion suggests conviction is lacking. Broad-market breadth was narrow, with banks mixed and Vale closing lower despite firmer iron ore futures in China.
— The technical setup is improving but unfinished. RSI has reclaimed the 50 midline, the MACD is trending higher, and the index has regained the 183,000 handle. However, the MACD histogram remains negative at −1,404, and the close at 183,969 fell just short of the 184,321 resistance cluster. A confirmed break above 184,725 would shift the picture decisively bullish; failure here keeps the recovery fragile.
— The macro environment is bifurcated. Petrobras benefits from elevated oil, but the broader economy faces headwinds from tighter global financial conditions, rising Treasury yields, and postponed Fed easing. Domestically, the retail data surprise is a positive signal, and next week’s Copom decision could catalyze a fresh leg higher if the board delivers the expected 50 bps cut.
— Bias: NEUTRAL — maintained from the prior session. A daily close above 184,725 with improving breadth upgrades the call to Cautiously Bullish. A break below 179,319 (Bollinger midline) reinstates the Bearish case.
Key Facts
— Deep Dive
— For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Ibovespa, Merval, COLCAP, IPSA and IPC Guide
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