Ibovespa Edges Higher on Iran Ceasefire Hopes

The Big Three

Today’s Ibovespa market report covers the first session of Q2 2026. The index opened at 187,462.68, tested an intraday high of 189,130.90 as ceasefire optimism drove early buying, then faded through the afternoon as Petrobras weighed on the broader tape. The close at 187,952.91 represented a gain of 491.07 points, or +0.26%.

The session was a study in rotation: everything that benefits from lower oil and lower rates rallied, while the energy complex sold off. Banks were the backbone — Banco do Brasil (+2.74%), Santander (+1.83%), Bradesco (+1.36%), and Itaú (+0.84%) all gained. Embraer surged 4.74% on the defense recovery trade, and Gerdau climbed 3.79% after Itaú BBA upgraded the stock to outperform, citing an attractive risk-reward at 3.9x EV/Ebitda.

The USD/BRL firmed to 5.1546, touching its lowest level since April 1 at 5.1415. The real benefited from the global dollar retreat as the DXY slipped below recent support. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield eased 1.4 bps to 4.297%. Gold surged 2.92% to $4,783/oz.

On the macro front, Brazil’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.0 in March, the slowest pace of contraction since May 2025, though still below the 50 expansion threshold. In the U.S., ADP private payrolls came in at +62,000 (vs. consensus +42,000), and retail sales topped expectations at +0.6% MoM.

B3 (B3SA3) +~8% — The exchange operator was Wednesday’s undisputed leader. XP raised its Ibovespa year-end target to 196,000 points, directly benefiting the company whose revenue is tied to trading volumes. The ex-JCP adjustment also created a technical buying window. Itaú BBA reiterated its buy rating and lifted its price target to R$22, writing that “the return of foreign capital combined with greater local participation has structurally altered the company’s narrative.”

Embraer (EMBJ3) +4.74% — The aerospace manufacturer led the industrial recovery trade, clawing back losses accumulated during March’s war-driven selloff. The peace signal from Washington also implies fewer supply chain disruptions for global defense and aviation procurement.

Gerdau (GGBR4) +3.79% — Itaú BBA upgraded the steelmaker to outperform, citing an attractive risk-reward after shares had fallen 10% from a late-February downgrade. The bank projected Q1 2026 Ebitda of R$2.82 billion (+19% QoQ) and an average free cash flow yield of 9% through 2028.

Banco do Brasil (BBAS3) +2.74% — Led the banking sector higher. Lower bond yields reduced credit concerns, and the broader rotation out of energy into financials continued for a second straight session.

Petrobras (PETR4) −2.67% — The inevitable casualty of the peace trade. Brent plunged 2.82% to settle around $101/bbl after Trump suggested the Iran campaign could end within weeks. PETR4 gave back roughly half of Tuesday’s gains. Additionally, the 55% increase in aviation fuel (QAV) prices effective April 1 drew criticism from the Grupo Abra/Gol aviation holding.

Natura (NATU3) −0.86% — Gave back a portion of Tuesday’s Advent acquisition-driven rally. Profit-taking was the main driver after the stock had surged nearly 13% the prior session.

Corporate calendar: S&P cut Aegea’s credit rating to B+ from BB− and placed it on negative watch after the sanitation company delayed its 2025 results for an accounting review. IRB approved a dividend of R$0.59/share (payment April 17). RD Saúde declared JCP of R$150.4 million (ex-date April 6). Wellington Management raised its stake in Sabesp to 35.9 million shares. Riachuelo (RIAA3) approved JCP of R$50 million.

The Ibovespa’s modest +0.26% headline masks a fierce rotation beneath the surface. The de-escalation trade has created a near-perfect negative correlation within the index: banks, industrials, and utilities go up precisely when oil and Petrobras go down. On Tuesday, the rally was broad (+2.7%); on Wednesday, the gains narrowed as the energy drag became more pronounced. The index is simultaneously celebrating cheaper oil (good for inflation and rate cuts) while punishing its heaviest-weighted stock for the same reason.

The key question is whether the ceasefire materializes. Trump’s address to the nation on Wednesday night was expected to elaborate on the Iran endgame, but markets remain wary of false starts after five weeks of conflicting signals. Brent fell from $118 to $101 in two sessions — a remarkable $17/bbl reversal — but it is still trading 45% above pre-war levels. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the oil unwind would accelerate dramatically (Goldman sees $80 Brent by Q3), which would be a massive tailwind for Brazilian equities ex-Petrobras.

The Q1 scorecard tells the story of Brazil’s resilience: the Ibovespa ended Q1 up 16.35%, with R$48 billion in foreign inflows — by far the strongest start to a year in recent memory. The war disrupted but did not derail the bull case. March lost 0.70%, but the index still sits just 2.4% below the all-time high of 192,624 set on February 25. XP’s new 196,000-point target implies roughly 4% further upside.

Domestically, the focus shifts to two catalysts: Thursday’s February industrial production data and the March trade balance, then the Good Friday holiday (B3 closed). The next Copom meeting on April 28–29 will be pivotal. With IPCA-15 at 3.90% (above target), oil still elevated, and Selic at 14.75%, the committee faces a delicate calibration. Focus consensus sees the year-end Selic at 12.25% — but the path there depends entirely on how fast oil normalizes.

Ibovespa daily (from uploaded chart): The index closed at 187,952.91 — inside the Ichimoku cloud with price sitting above the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. The daily candle printed a small-bodied green bar with a modest upper wick at 189,131, suggesting buyers lacked conviction to push through the 189K resistance. The Bollinger Bands show price near the upper band (~187,953) after two strong sessions squeezed the index back into the upper envelope.

RSI stands at 59.32 (signal: 49.54) — firmly above 50 and rising but still below overbought territory. This gives the rally room to extend. The MACD histogram reads 774.21 (MACD: 641.54, signal: 132.66) — a bullish crossover completed, with the histogram expanding. This is a constructive setup as long as the signal stays above zero.

Key levels: Resistance at 189,131 (Wednesday high) → 192,624 (all-time high, Feb 25). Support at 187,475 (upper SMA cluster) → 183,831 (prior swing high, now support) → 183,145 / 182,958 (SMA convergence) → 182,085 / 181,680 (mid-range cluster) → 178,099 (pivot) → 175,884 (lower Bollinger) → 155,633 (200-day SMA).

USD/BRL daily (from uploaded chart): The dollar-real pair fell to 5.1546, approaching the year’s low near 5.1154 (Feb 26). Price is trading below the 200-day SMA and below the orange 50-day EMA (~5.2301), with both acting as overhead resistance. The Ichimoku setup is bearish for the dollar: price sits below the cloud, with the lagging span also below the cloud. RSI at 49.36 (signal: 42.59) shows neutral momentum with a slight downward bias. MACD is marginally negative (−0.0019, signal: −0.0085), suggesting flat-to-lower drift. A break below 5.1154 would target the 5.05–5.00 psychological zone — levels not seen since early 2024.

Verdict: The Ibovespa’s technical setup is cautiously bullish. The MACD crossover, rising RSI, and recovery back above the SMA cluster all point to continuation. However, the inability to close above 189K keeps the all-time high at arm’s length. A decisive break above 189,131 on volume would target 192,624. The USD/BRL chart supports the equity bull case — a weakening dollar would attract further foreign flows.

Thursday, April 2: February industrial production (IBGE). March trade balance. This is the final trading session before the Good Friday holiday. Expect lower liquidity as participants front-load positioning. Trump’s Wednesday night address on Iran will set the overnight tone for global risk.

Friday, April 3: Sexta-feira Santa — B3 closed. U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls drops at 08:30 ET (consensus ~50,000 after February’s −92,000). Bond markets will trade; equity markets will not. Any payrolls surprise will gap through to Monday’s open.

Key risks: Trump’s Iran address could go either way — an escalation threat (he warned of strikes “20 times stronger” if Iran keeps blocking the Strait) would reverse the de-escalation trade instantly. OPEC+ meets April 5 to decide on production increases. And Good Friday creates a 72-hour gap during which payrolls, geopolitics, and oil prices can all shift without equity hedging.

Positioning note: The internal rotation trade (long banks/industrials, short energy) has worked for two sessions. The risk is mean reversion: if ceasefire talks collapse, Petrobras snaps back while banks give up gains. Position sizing into a holiday weekend should reflect this asymmetry.

Disclaimer: This Ibovespa market report is published by The Rio Times for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All data sourced from B3, TradingView, Trading Economics, InfoMoney, and Yahoo Finance. Verify all figures independently before making investment decisions.