Global Economy Briefing: January 5, 2026

Key Points

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• U.S. manufacturing stayed in contraction, but autos sold at a 16.0M pace and funding costs eased at the front end.

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• Europe’s demand looked mixed: UK credit accelerated while French and Italian auto registrations diverged.

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• Asia signaled stability, not surge: Singapore retail held up, Japan’s monetary base shrank, Korea’s reserves dipped.

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United States

\nISM manufacturing stayed sub-50 (PMI 47.9; new orders 47.7; employment 44.9), with prices steady at 58.5. GDPNow slipped to 2.7% for Q4 from 3.0%. Front-end funding eased (3-month 3.540%, 6-month 3.475%).
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\nAutos were a bright spot: total vehicle sales reached 16.00M (15.60M prior). Regionals were soft (Dallas Fed manufacturing −10.9, from −10.4), but holiday spending held (Redbook +7.6% y/y).
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\nRead-through: goods remain weak, consumers and autos keep growth alive; no stress in dollar funding.
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Europe and UK

\nSpanish unemployment fell again (−16.3k). French short bills cheapened slightly (12-month 2.116%, 6-month 2.060%, 3-month 2.043%).
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\nUK credit re-accelerated: consumer credit £2.077B; M4 +0.8% m/m; net lending to individuals £6.6B; mortgage approvals 64.53k (near trend).
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\nIndustry signals were uneven: Switzerland’s PMI fell to 45.8; French registrations −5.8% y/y; Italy +2.2% y/y.
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\nTakeaway: households are re-levering at the margin in the UK, but continental goods indicators remain patchy.
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Latin America

\nBrazil’s Focus survey ran (no figures today). Positioning shifted: BRL net longs eased (42.1k), while MXN longs rose (106.4k). The mix favors Mexico’s carry and external story over Brazil until flows stabilize.
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Asia-Pacific

\nSingapore retail was flat m/m but a firm 6.3% y/y, consistent with steady services demand. Japan’s monetary base contracted further (−9.8% y/y) and the 10-year JGB auction cleared at 2.095% (from 1.872%), a nod to slow-burn normalization.
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\nKorea’s FX reserves dipped to $428.05B; official PMIs due later kept tone cautious. Australia’s composite PMI slipped to 51.0 (services 51.1), signaling expansion without heat.
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\nHong Kong’s PMI eased to 51.9 (from 52.9). Net: Asia remains an anchor—stable consumption, restrained price pressure, ample but not growing liquidity.
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Positioning & commodities

\nCFTC showed lighter risk appetite at the margin: copper length trimmed (59.8k from 67.1k), gold length down (231.2k from 240.7k), Nasdaq 100 length lower, S&P 500 net shorts deeper.
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\nGBP shorts covered (−33.2k from −41.2k); JPY longs built (14.1k from 1.2k); EUR longs edged lower.
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What it means

\nThe soft-landing template endures: U.S. goods weak, autos and services steady; Europe mixed but financed; Asia stable without reflation.
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\nPortfolio tilt: keep quality duration; overweight U.S. service/auto linkages; add selectively to UK lenders and payment names on rising credit; lean into Asia consumer/services over deep cyclicals; prefer MXN carry over BRL until Brazil’s flow picture improves.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily global economic intelligence for the Latin American financial community.

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