Global Economy Briefing: January 15, 2026

Key Points

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• The UK grew faster in November, but construction kept shrinking and the trade gap stayed wide.

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• Europe’s disinflation continued, yet long yields rose and the euro-area trade surplus shrank sharply.

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• China’s credit growth stayed firm; the U.S. factories improved and foreign inflows to Treasuries jumped.

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United States

\nThe tone improved on the margin. Claims fell: initial 198k and continuing 1.884M, with the 4-week average down to 205k. Regional factories turned up.
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\nEmpire State rose to 7.70 and Philly to 12.6, with new orders at 14.4 and prices paid lower at 46.9. Trade prices were mixed: export prices +0.5% m/m, import prices +0.4% m/m, while import inflation stayed low at 0.1% y/y.
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\nNatural gas drew 71 bcf, less tight than last week. The bigger story was funding. Foreign Treasury buying was $85.6B and overall net inflows were $212.0B, with net long-term transactions at $220.2B.  The Fed balance sheet edged up to $6.582T and reserves to $3.062T.
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\nRead-through: disinflation holds, the factory pulse is stabilizing, and the U.S. remains the global magnet for capital.
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Europe and UK

\nBritain beat on growth but not on the mix. GDP rose 0.3% m/m and 1.4% y/y, with services up 0.2%. Industrial output was strong (1.1% m/m; 2.3% y/y) and manufacturing rose 2.1% m/m and 2.1% y/y.
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\nConstruction was the drag (−1.3% m/m; −1.1% y/y). The trade deficit was still large at £23.71B, though the non-EU gap narrowed slightly. Confidence improved (UK PCSI 49.2).
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\nIn the euro area, wholesale disinflation continued in Germany (WPI −0.2% m/m; 1.2% y/y). France stayed very low inflation (CPI 0.8% y/y; HICP 0.7% y/y).
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\nSpain held CPI at 2.9% y/y (HICP 3.0% y/y). Core was 2.6% y/y. Wages cooled: euro-area wages 3.0% y/y and the labor cost index 3.3% y/y earlier this month, and the pattern continued here.
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\nActivity was better: Italy’s industrial production rose 1.5% m/m and 1.4% y/y. Euro-area output rose 0.7% m/m and 2.5% y/y. The weak spot was the external account: the euro-area trade surplus fell to €9.9B from €17.9B.
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\nLong yields stayed high: Germany’s 30-year auction rose to 3.450%, Spain’s long auctions rose (50-year 4.024%; 15-year 3.670%), while Italy’s 12-month bills eased to 2.112%.
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\nGermany’s annual GDP was 0.20%, a small improvement from −0.50%. Net: Europe is disinflating, but financing remains tight and the external cushion is thinner.
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Asia-Pacific

\nChina’s credit pulse stayed firm. M2 rose 8.5% y/y. New loans were ¥910B and total social financing ¥2.21T, both above expectations.
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\nOutstanding loan growth held 6.4% y/y. That supports activity, but it also signals targeted easing rather than a full reflation push. India’s trade gap widened slightly to −$25.04B as imports rose faster than exports.
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\nMoney supply in India eased to 12.1% y/y in the prior release, but sentiment improved today (India PCSI 60.73). New Zealand surprised on the upside: PMI jumped to 56.1, while food prices fell again (FPI −0.3% m/m).
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\nSingapore’s non-oil exports fell 9.4% m/m and grew 6.1% y/y, with the trade surplus down to 2.205B.
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\nJapan’s flows swung risk-on: foreigners bought ¥1,141.4B of equities and bought ¥101.1B of bonds.
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Latin America and Africa

\nMexico’s investment improved month on month (+0.9%), but was still down 5.5% y/y. Brazil’s consumer demand looked better: retail rose 1.0% m/m and 1.3% y/y, and job creation was steady (CAGED 85.86k).
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\nThe weak spot was autos: production fell 15.8% m/m even as sales jumped 17.1% m/m, a classic inventory and base-effect split.
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\nFX flows were still negative at −$1.696B, but less severe than earlier. Chile was not in today’s dataset. South Africa sentiment improved (SA PCSI 49.27) but no new hard data were listed.
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What it means

\nThis was a “disinflation with pockets of demand” day. The UK is not in recession, but it is not rebalancing yet, because construction and the trade gap remain weak.
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\nEurope is growing and disinflating, but higher long yields and a smaller trade surplus raise sensitivity to shocks.
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\nThe U.S. still attracts capital, which supports the dollar and keeps global funding anchored. China is supporting growth through credit, not a big stimulus wave.
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\nTilt: keep quality duration; prefer U.S. services and quality cyclicals; be selective in Europe until the external balance stabilizes; in EM, favor Mexico carry with improving activity, and treat Brazil as flow-sensitive despite better retail.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily global economic intelligence for the Latin American financial community.

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