Global Economy Briefing: December 29, 2025

Key Points

• U.S. housing firmed again: pending home sales rose 3.3% (index 79.2) as factories in Texas stayed weak (Dallas Fed −10.9).
• India’s industry snapped back: output +6.7% y/y, manufacturing +8.0% m/m; Korea showed mixed momentum.
• Brazil’s inflation proxy turned slightly negative (IGP-M −0.01% m/m); France jobseekers fell to 3,129.3K.

United States

Housing ended the year with a pulse. Pending home sales rose 3.3% in November after 2.4% prior, lifting the index to 79.2.

Manufacturing remained soft in the Dallas Fed survey (−10.9 vs −10.4), underscoring a two-speed economy—services and housing steadier, goods lagging.

Front-end funding was calm: 3-month bills at 3.570%, 6-month at 3.500%. Natural gas storage drew 166 bcf (vs −169 bcf expected, −167 bcf prior), keeping winter energy pressure contained.

Europe and UK

France reported fewer jobseekers: 3,129.3K vs 3,150.8K. That’s a modest improvement in labor slack even as broader euro indicators remain mixed. No major market surprises from the continent on a holiday-thinned day.

Asia-Pacific

India delivered the standout. Industrial production jumped 6.7% y/y in November; manufacturing output surged 8.0% m/m; the cumulative year rose to 3.3% from 2.7%.

This supports regional supply chains without reigniting global goods inflation. Korea’s picture was mixed: industrial production −1.4% y/y but +0.6% m/m; retail sales fell 3.3% m/m; services rose 0.7% m/m.

Net: factories are stabilizing off weak bases; domestic demand is uneven.

Latin America

Brazil’s IGP-M edged to −0.01% m/m (from +0.27%), extending the benign pipeline trend that supports a gradualist monetary stance.

Bank credit grew 0.9% m/m in November, steady on the month. Focus survey ran as scheduled.

Fiscal-revenue prints earlier in the month pointed to a marginally firmer base into year-end; today’s flow data were limited.

Markets & liquidity

Holiday effects kept volumes light, amplifying micro-moves. U.S. bills cheapened a touch but showed solid demand. Energy balances stayed orderly with the gas draw close to expectations.

What it means

The soft-landing template held. U.S. housing helps anchor demand while factory softness caps price pressure.

India’s industrial rebound and Korea’s stabilization provide a floor for Asia’s goods cycle without stoking inflation.

France’s lower jobseekers and Brazil’s softer wholesale inflation reduce policy tail risks. Positioning: maintain a quality-duration bias; favor U.S. housing-adjacent and service names.

Lean into India-linked industrials and selective Korea cyclicals; in Brazil, carry remains supported as pipeline inflation cools; in Europe, prefer exporters benefiting from tame input costs over pure domestic discretionary.

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