Colombia’s October Growth Looked Solid, but It Ran on Services, Not Production

Key Points

• Headline growth was solid: activity rose 2.95% in October 2025 versus a year earlier.
• The engine was services (+3.87%); industry and construction were weak month to month (-1.17%).
• For businesses and investors, the mix signals consumers are spending, but big-ticket investment is still hesitant.

Colombia’s economy just delivered a number that looks like a turning point—and a breakdown that looks like a caution label.

The country’s statistics agency, DANE, said its monthly activity tracker (ISE) grew 2.95% year over year in October. It was slower than September, yet still strong enough to keep the recovery narrative alive.

DANE’s own calendar shows other standout months in 2025—July (4.6%), March (4.5%), September (4.0%) and June (3.0)—with October ranking next in the growth table.

But the “behind the headline” story is about what grew, and what did not. Services did the heavy lifting. DANE’s tertiary basket rose 3.87% from a year earlier and, after seasonal and calendar adjustment, grew 0.52% from September to October.

Services Lead as Industry Lags

That points to steady demand in commerce, transport, communications, finance, and other service jobs that tend to expand when households feel less squeezed. The productive base told a quieter story.

Primary activities—agriculture plus mining—grew just 0.35% from a year earlier and slipped 0.13% from September. Secondary activities—manufacturing and construction—were up 0.83% year over year but fell 1.17% month to month.

Put simply: the economy moved forward (+0.21% month to month overall), but the parts that usually pull investment, imports, and hiring momentum stumbled.

Zoom out, and the trend is positive. From January to October 2025, activity was up 2.83%, versus 1.59% in the same period of 2024. Yet the composition matters for policy.

With inflation still around 5.5% in October, the central bank’s path to faster rate cuts is not frictionless, and fiscal promises face a tighter credibility test.

Why it matters abroad: Colombia is a bellwether for the northern Andes. A services-led rebound supports banks, retailers, and travel flows, but weak industry and construction can cap demand for capital goods, pressure jobs, and temper nearshoring enthusiasm.

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