Colombian Peso Defies Equity Selloff As Local Risks Undermine Market Rally

The Colombian peso is starting Tuesday firm even as local equities absorb one of their sharpest daily setbacks in weeks, underscoring how FX resilience and stock-market anxiety are telling different stories about the economy.

The official TRM for the day is 3,804.09 pesos per dollar, while offshore spot trades slightly stronger near 3,790 after Monday’s session ranged between 3,785 and 3,822 on about $1.46 billion in turnover.

The move comes with the dollar index hovering around 100.2 as investors weigh another small Fed cut in December following dovish signals from US officials and a mixed but generally constructive tone in global stock markets.

Fundamentals still favour a strong peso. BanRep keeps its policy rate at 9.25%, with inflation projected around 5–5.5% by end-2025 and growth near 2.5%, according to the IMF.

Colombia benefits from high real yields, remittances close to 4% of GDP and roughly $4.1 billion in FX sales by the Finance Ministry this year.

Yet these same forces are widening the goods-trade deficit to about $1.6 billion a month, fuelling an import boom that may eventually force the central bank to tighten again instead of delivering the rate cuts many politicians demand.

Surveys continue to cluster year-end dollar forecasts around 3,800, but strategists increasingly warn that today’s strength could prove fragile into 2026.

Technically, USD/COP remains in a clear downtrend on the weekly chart, with price pressed to the lower Bollinger band and an RSI in the mid-30s.

The daily chart shows a modest rebound from mid-November lows near 3,700 toward 3,80, capped by a descending trendline and resistance at 3,83–3,85, while the four-hour chart reveals momentum already fading below that ceiling.

Support sits in the 3,75–3,70 area, where a break lower would resume the appreciation, but a breach of 3,85 could trigger a deeper dollar correction.

Equities are far less optimistic. The MSCI COLCAP fell 2.01% on Monday to just under 2,000 points, despite gains in New York.

Energy led the slide after gas producer Canacol sought Chapter 15 protection in the US and was cut to default by S&P, dragging down Ecopetrol by about 2.1%.

Financials also cracked: preferred Davivienda shares slumped 12.89% after recent gains and ahead of a shareholder meeting on its Scotiabank integration, while preferred Grupo Sura dropped 5.51% amid renewed attention to its indirect stakes via pension fund Protección. Grupo Bolívar, Celsia and Corficolombiana added to the losses.

Among the few bright spots, BHI gained 2.83%, Mineros 1.77%, Organizacion Terpel 2.70%, Grupo Cibest 2.50% and Cementos Argos 0.75%, suggesting selective interest in hard-asset and cash-generating stories.

International Colombia-focused ETFs showed no major inflows or outflows, implying that Monday’s selloff was largely driven by domestic investors reacting to corporate headlines and lingering concerns about policy direction rather than a wholesale rejection by foreign capital.

The result is a split-screen market: a currency buoyed by disciplined monetary policy and external income, and a stock exchange that continues to price in restructuring risk, energy-sector uncertainty and worries over how far the current administration is willing to push interventionist experiments.

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