Itaú BBA reports that better weather conditions for arabica beans will drive a 4.6% increase in the 2024/25 coffee harvest in Brazil, reaching 69.4 million 60-kg bags.
Though recovering, this yield won’t beat the 2020/21 record of 69.9 million bags.
Recent improved rainfall in Minas Gerais after a tough dry spell hints at a promising season.
The south of Minas Gerais shows particularly good progress, possibly exceeding last year’s arabica output.
However, the Cerrado region might see a dip in production. Overall, arabica is expected to slightly outperform last year’s crop but not reach the 2020 peak.
Itaú BBA predicts arabica at 46.2 million bags and robusta/conilon at over 23 million.
This reflects a global trend towards a “more comfortable” coffee surplus, from 1.9 million bags to 4.6 million year-over-year.
The expectation is for a 1% increase in global coffee consumption, signaling growing demand.
This anticipated growth underscores the importance of stable production and the impact of climatic conditions on coffee yields.