Brazil: Potential yield losses for early-planted corn as drier weather pattern sets in

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Southern Brazil, after somewhat favorable rains in October, has since turned drier and this pattern is expected to continue, raising concern for crops in this region.

November 1 through 15 was the 4th wettest first half of a November in over 30 years for Argentina’s main soybean growing regions.

Meanwhile, for the Brazilian states of São Paulo south to Rio Grande do Sul it was the 7th to 9th driest first half of a November in over 30 years.

Soil moisture replenished in the fist half of November in Argentina should help to hold over this region at least in the short-term heading into early December 2021. As the effects of La Niña take hold, however, rainfall will become spotty. Unfortunately, this will happen as some of the early-planted crops enter sensitive pollination phases in December, potentially threatening yields.

For southern Brazil, the situation somewhat more precarious as drier than normal conditions in the first half of November have left much to be desired in terms of soil moisture across the region.

Drier than normal conditions are expected through the end of November and, like Argentina, any shower activity will be spotty. Early-planted crops may begin showing signs of stress heading into December as depleted soil moisture provide little support for developing plants.

Farther north across central Brazil, rainfall will continue to run near or above normal through the end of November and into December according to forecasts. There will thus be fewer concerns for crops, from a weather perspective, across this region as compared to southern Brazil and Argentina.