IBGE foresees an 11.8% increase in Brazilian production and a record agribusiness harvest for 2023

Despite the adversities caused by drought, the pandemic, the dollar price, the war in Ukraine, and the increase in the value of inputs, Brazilian agribusiness has remained resilient and expects a record harvest next year.

The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) forecasts a harvest of 293.6 million tons for 2023, which represents an 11.8% increase over 2022 in the projection for grains, cereals, legumes, and oilseeds.

In an interview with Jovem Pan News, Carol Curimbaba, an entrepreneur in the sector, analyzed the context of national production: “Despite all this, we know how hard it is to work in the field here in Brazil, anywhere in the world, but in Brazil, we know how difficult it is.”

“Even so, it will be a good year, with many adversities, but a good year for agribusiness. And an even better expectation for 2023. It is worth mentioning that, in 2022, food inflation arrived on the Brazilian table and boosted the IPCA, along with fuels.”

“We believe that prices will stay relatively high due to the global crisis that is coming on strong. The big countries that haven’t seen inflation for decades, the United States and Europe, are seeing strong inflation.”

“We can see this in the last year, and we believe it will continue. Interest rates will continue to be high, and the dollar also with certain volatility.”

“The war is not showing much sign that it will end. In such an uncertain world, Brazil managed to hold its own. It was a task force of the public and private sectors together, especially the productive and agribusiness sector”, analyzed Curimbaba.

The impact of the negative variables was felt by many producers who have difficulties to keep their crops in the field, as explained by economist and Mackenzie professor Hugo Garbe.

“When we talk about agribusiness in Brazil, we have big players, but the credit for agribusiness is still very complicated in Brazil. I see that the financial market, even in 2022, doesn’t really understand how Brazilian agribusiness works.”

“Entering into the day-to-day of these rural producers, credit with a harvest term, that is, the citizen plants corn, and he has to have a credit that follows the term of his harvest, which is nine months to a year.”

“It has been a while since we had this type of credit in Brazil, which meets rural producers’ needs. Many people have had a hard time and are still suffering the consequences or have gone bankrupt.”

Regarding the unfavorable environment in the United States and Europe, in 2023, Garbe highlights the impact in Brazil: “In an economic crisis in Europe, the United States or anywhere in the world, families, which are the final consumers, will stop consuming consumer production goods.”

“That is refrigerator, car, and the like. Agribusiness does not. That is, food, in general, is the last item to be replaced by families. Unless we have a very deep crisis in global terms, which is not likely. We will likely have a recession in the United States and Europe as well, but nothing very deep.’

With information from Jovem Pan