Poll Puts Tarcísio Far Ahead in São Paulo Race

São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the state’s 2026 gubernatorial race, according to the first Datafolha survey of the year on the contest, published on Sunday. The poll of 1,608 registered voters, conducted March 3–5 across 71 municipalities, shows the right-wing incumbent well ahead of every candidate the Lula government might field — with a margin of error of two percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

In the main scenario, Tarcísio leads Finance Minister Fernando Haddad 44% to 31%, with no other candidate reaching double digits. Minor-party figures Kim Kataguiri and Paulo Serra each register 5%, and Felipe D’Ávila of the Novo party 3%, while 11% of respondents said they would cast a blank or null ballot.

Haddad the Strongest, But Also the Most Rejected

The poll tests several possible Lula-aligned challengers. Haddad, who lost to Tarcísio in the 2022 governor’s race before being appointed finance minister, performs best among them. When Vice President Geraldo Alckmin — a four-term former São Paulo governor — is substituted in, Tarcísio’s lead widens to 46% against 26%. Against Planning Minister Simone Tebet, the margin stretches to 30 points: 49% to 19%.

The picture complicates around Haddad’s rejection numbers. Of all candidates tested, he carries the highest proportion of voters who say they would never support him under any circumstances: 38%, compared with 29% for Alckmin, 27% for Tebet, and 24% for Tarcísio himself. PT leaders have nonetheless pressed Haddad to run, calculating that his name recognition and association with Brazil’s economic management — GDP grew in 2025 and inflation remains under control — give Lula the strongest possible platform in the country’s largest electoral college.

No Runoff Safe Harbor for the Opposition

Second-round simulations offer Lula’s camp no relief. Tarcísio beats Haddad 52% to 37% in a head-to-head matchup, defeats Alckmin 50% to 39%, and runs over Tebet 58% to 28%. The governor’s approval rating has also improved since Datafolha’s last measurement, in April 2025: 45% now rate his administration as good or excellent, up from 41%, while 64% of Paulistas say they approve of his performance overall against 30% who disapprove.

A politically sensitive question illustrates Tarcísio’s positioning within the Brazilian right. Asked whether they view him as an ally of imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro — convicted in September 2025 of plotting to overturn the 2022 election — 69% of respondents said yes. Only 10% placed him in the Lula camp. The governor has leaned into that association: in January he visited Bolsonaro in detention and confirmed his support for Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential candidacy, while simultaneously ruling out his own run for the presidency and declaring re-election in São Paulo his political priority through at least 2030.

Why São Paulo Matters Nationally

The state accounts for roughly a quarter of Brazil’s electorate, making its governor’s race a proxy for the country’s broader political direction. Lula won the presidency in 2022 narrowly — by 1.8 percentage points — with São Paulo‘s interior swinging sharply against him while the capital gave him a thin majority. A strong government ally holding the governorship would anchor that coalition in 2026; a second Tarcísio term would make it far harder to replicate. The federal government has not yet announced its candidate, and party leaders say a decision is unlikely before the middle of the year.

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