Oil Wrap: WTI Slips as Gulf Risks Meet Latin Supply Hopes
Key Facts
- WTI-tracking USO fell 2.20% to US$154.90 as Friday’s session tempered Thursday’s surge even as Saudi infrastructure attacks kept Gulf supply fears alive.
- Petrobras shares eased 0.84% to US$21.20 a modest pullback after recent gains tied to Brazil’s pre-salt dominance and Equatorial Margin exploration.
- YPF slipped 0.91% to US$55.55 with Vaca Muerta shale economics still supported by elevated crude but taking a breath after Thursday’s climb.
- Ecopetrol dropped 1.77% to US$17.75 showing Colombia’s producer tracked the broader oil equity retreat more sharply than regional peers.
- The IEA revised its 2026 supply outlook down by 1.4 million barrels per day and no longer expects normal Gulf flows to return this year, implying a 5.7 million bpd global supply fall.
- Baker Hughes reported the US oil rig count rose by 1 to 450 bringing the total US rig count to 591, up 52 from the same week last year.
Today’s Focus
Oil prices gave back part of Thursday’s spike on Friday, September 11, 2026, with the WTI-tracking United States Oil Fund falling 2.20% to US$154.90. Traders were digesting drone strikes on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and a sobering IEA report rather than chasing the rally.
Latin American producers moved lower in sympathy, but the moves were gentler. Petrobras lost 0.84% to US$21.20, YPF fell 0.91% to US$55.55 and Ecopetrol dropped 1.77% to US$17.75.
The underlying picture remains tight. The IEA cut its 2026 supply outlook by another 1.4 million barrels per day and said normal Gulf flows will not return this year.
For Latin America, that tension is a tailwind: Brazil’s pre-salt projects, Guyana’s Stabroek block and Argentina’s Vaca Muerta all become more valuable when global supply fears persist.
What matters today. The Gulf disruption premium is not collapsing, so Latin America’s long-cycle oil bets stay attractive even on a down day.
01 The session in one read
The WTI-tracking United States Oil Fund settled 2.20% lower at US$154.90 on Friday, September 11, 2026, cooling after Thursday’s sharp 5.61% jump. The pullback came as traders absorbed confirmation of drone strikes on Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline system.
The IEA added fuel to the supply story by cutting its 2026 global oil supply outlook by 1.4 million barrels per day and no longer expecting normal Gulf flows to return this year. That implies a 5.7 million barrel per day supply drop across 2026, or roughly 6%.
In the United States, Baker Hughes reported the oil rig count rose by one to 450, lifting the total rig count to 591, up 52 from a year earlier. The higher drilling activity signals producers are responding to prices well above US$100.
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02 The board
Latin America’s listed oil names tracked the WTI proxy lower, with Ecopetrol the weakest at US$17.75 after a 1.77% decline. Petrobras held up better, slipping 0.84% to US$21.20, while Argentina’s YPF fell 0.91% to US$55.55.
The gap between Ecopetrol’s larger drop and Petrobras’s smaller one matters. Brazil’s producer is riding a wave of pre-salt output and fresh Equatorial Margin exploration, while Colombia’s producer has less new supply momentum to cushion a global dip.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| WTI crude (USO) | US$154.90 | -2.20% |
| Petrobras | US$21.20 | -0.84% |
| Ecopetrol | US$17.75 | -1.77% |
| YPF | US$55.55 | -0.91% |
Source: RT close, 2026-09-11. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 187,206.89 | -0.56% | +21.85% | 188,268.59 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| IPSA | 11,220.10 | -0.16% | — | 11,238.58 | 11,210 | 10,984 | 1,513,213,483 |
| IPC MEX | 63,924.77 | -0.28% | +12.17% | 64,106.82 | 66,121 | 65,405 | 108,886,187 |
| MERVAL | 3,098,898 | -1.87% | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| COLCAP | 2,589.69 | -1.41% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| BVL PERÚ | 59,373.28 | -0.32% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| USD/MXN | 17.06 | -0.24% | -8.58% | 17.10 | 17.08 | 17.01 | — |
| USD/CLP | 913.98 | +0.04% | -5.67% | 913.65 | 915.11 | 906.68 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,140 | +0.03% | -22.04% | 3,139 | 3,141 | 3,105 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.36 | -0.66% | -4.82% | 3.38 | 3.38 | 3.35 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.27 | +1.24% | +1.80% | 39.77 | 40.27 | 40.23 | — |
| USD/PYG | 5,939 | +1.68% | -19.54% | 5,841 | 5,939 | 5,925 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.64 | -0.76% | +72.04% | 11.73 | 11.72 | 11.64 | — |
| USD/DOP | 58.34 | +1.25% | -3.44% | 57.62 | 58.34 | 58.04 | — |
| USD/CRC | 445.92 | +0.89% | -9.71% | 441.97 | 448.50 | 445.92 | — |
03 What moved it
The dominant driver was the Middle East. Drone strikes hit multiple pumping stations on Saudi Arabia’s vital East-West pipeline on Thursday, threatening one of the kingdom’s key crude export routes and keeping Brent above US$104.
That disruption adds to an already extreme supply picture. The Strait of Hormuz, which previously moved about a fifth of the world’s oil and LNG, has been effectively shut since March.
Saudi output fell around 1.9 million barrels per day in August, and Middle Eastern crude has soared to US$120. Against that backdrop, Friday’s US$154.90 close for the WTI-tracking fund looks like consolidation, not capitulation.
04 The Latin American read
For Latin America, supply fears in the Gulf translate into better economics for long-cycle projects. Petrobras at US$21.20 still reflects Brazil’s pre-salt dominance and the promise of Equatorial Margin discoveries.
YPF at US$55.55 shows Vaca Muerta remains a beneficiary of crude prices far above breakeven levels for shale. The slight decline suggests traders took profits after Thursday’s 2.66% advance.
Guyana’s boom, led by ExxonMobil’s Stabroek block, continues to be the region’s most dramatic growth story even though no direct proxy traded in Friday’s board. Mexico’s Pemex remains a cautionary tale of debt-heavy state control rather than a play on higher prices.
05 The names to watch
Petrobras is the most direct Latin American bellwether for this market. Its pre-salt output and Equatorial Margin exploration give it upside optionality that peers lack.
YPF offers exposure to Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale, where higher crude prices improve returns on wells that need US$50-plus to be economic. Ecopetrol is a higher-beta name that will move more sharply in both directions.
06 The outlook
The IEA’s revised outlook and the Saudi pipeline strikes point to a market that cannot easily replace lost Gulf barrels. The WTI-tracking proxy at US$154.90, even after Friday’s dip, prices in a world of sustained supply anxiety.
For Latin American oil equities, the question is whether the region can accelerate production fast enough to capture the premium. Brazil’s pre-salt and Guyana’s offshore fields are the obvious candidates, while Argentina and Colombia provide higher-risk torque.
07 What to watch
- Saudi pipeline damage: How much East-West capacity stays offline; a prolonged outage would tighten Gulf exports further and support WTI above US$150.
- IEA monthly revisions: The agency cut 2026 supply by 1.4 million bpd; another downgrade would signal the deficit is widening, not narrowing.
- Petrobras exploration news: Any Equatorial Margin confirmation could decouple Petrobras from global oil dips and lift the share from US$21.20.
- Vaca Muerta output: With YPF at US$55.55, Argentina’s shale growth pace determines whether the stock rerates beyond crude-price moves.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did oil fall if Saudi Arabia was attacked?
The WTI-tracking USO fund had already surged 5.61% on Thursday, so Friday’s 2.20% dip to US$154.90 was largely profit-taking while traders waited for damage confirmation.
Is Latin America benefiting from the Gulf disruption?
Yes. Higher global crude prices improve the economics of Petrobras’s pre-salt, Guyana’s offshore boom and YPF’s Vaca Muerta shale, even on days when shares ease.
What does the USO fund actually track?
The United States Oil Fund tracks near-month WTI futures, not physical barrels, and since January 1, 2026 has used a five-day roll process to manage its positions.
Why did Ecopetrol fall more than Petrobras or YPF?
Ecopetrol dropped 1.77% to US$17.75 versus Petrobras’s 0.84% decline, reflecting Colombia’s thinner pipeline of new supply projects compared with Brazil and Argentina.
Market data: EODHD
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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