The Big Three
WTI crude closed above $105 for the first time since 2022, settling at $105.18 (+5.55%) while Brent hit $114.65 (+1.85%). The WTI-Brent spread reached a record $9.50 premium as European and African crudes reflected acute scarcity from the five-week Hormuz blockade.
The IPC rebounded +0.60% to 67,087.64, led by mining and industrial names — Peñoles surged +5.53% and Grupo Carso jumped +5.18%. The bounce breaks a two-session losing streak but leaves the index still down over 6% for March.
Fed Chair Powell said at Harvard that rates are “in a good place” and warned against hiking to fight oil-driven inflation. The dovish signal failed to lift the Mexican peso, which depreciated for the fourth straight session to MXN 18.12, touching an intraday high of 18.16 — its weakest since December 11.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| IPC Close | 67,087.64 | +0.60% |
| IPC March | — | ~−6% |
| USD/MXN Close | 18.12 | −0.12% (peso, 4th session) |
| Banxico Rate | 6.75% | −25 bps (Mar 26) |
| WTI Crude | $105.18 | +5.55% (2022 high) |
| Brent Crude | $114.65 | +1.85% |
| S&P 500 | 6,343.72 | −0.39% |
| Dow Jones | 45,216.14 | +0.11% |
02 Equities
Mexico IPC today snapped a two-session losing streak with a +0.60% gain to 67,087.64 on 101.7 million titles traded. Industrias Peñoles led the rally at +5.53%, followed by Grupo Carso at +5.18% and Grupo Bimbo at +2.55%. The mining sector benefited from surging precious metals prices as investors sought inflation hedges. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Mexico’s stock market and Latin American financial markets.
El Financiero noted the prior week saw the BMV gain 3.98%, breaking a five-week losing streak, though the last two sessions of that week were negative. The Monday rebound suggests bargain-hunting in commodity-linked names rather than a broad sentiment shift. E*Trade’s Chris Larkin told Bloomberg that “geopolitical crises tend to have a relatively brief market impact” but acknowledged the Iran war lacks clear resolution signals.
03 Currency
The peso depreciated −0.12% to MXN 18.12, its fourth consecutive losing session. Banco Base reported the pair touched 18.16 intraday — the weakest level since December 11, 2025. Monex noted the week ahead will be driven by the geopolitical outlook and Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls.
Powell’s “wait and see” stance at Harvard suggests the Fed will not hike to fight oil inflation, which is modestly supportive for EM currencies. However, the peso remains trapped between Banxico’s dovish tilt (6.75% after last week’s surprise cut) and the structural energy-cost headwind from $105+ WTI.
04 Technical Analysis — S&P/BMV IPC Daily
The index opened at 66,729 — exactly at Friday’s close — and rallied steadily to 67,594 before pulling back marginally to 67,088. The bullish candle with no lower shadow (open equals session low) signals conviction from the opening bell, though the upper shadow shows resistance near 67,600.
The MACD histogram at −845.40 remains deeply negative, though the MACD line (146.85) has turned positive and is rising — the first clear bullish divergence signal of the month. RSI at 48.51/40.07 is approaching the 50 midline. A close above 67,836 would confirm the trend reversal.
05 Key Levels
| Level | IPC |
| Resistance 3 | 68,735.56 |
| Resistance 2 | 67,946.33 |
| Resistance 1 | 67,835.80 |
| Current Close | 67,087.64 |
| Support 1 | 66,031.33 |
| Support 2 | 63,634.58 |
| Support 3 | 62,764.68 |
06 Global Context
Wall Street was mixed — Dow +0.11%, S&P 500 −0.39% (third straight loss, 9% off highs), Nasdaq −0.73%. The VIX topped 30 intraday. WTI’s 5.55% surge to $105.18 was the dominant market story, with Asia approaching peak summer demand and scrambling for supply as the five-week Hormuz blockade tightens global crude availability.
07 Looking Ahead
Semana Santa begins, historically thinning Mexican market liquidity. The WSJ report Tuesday morning that Trump is willing to end hostilities even if Hormuz stays shut could be a game-changer for oil prices — if confirmed, WTI could correct sharply below $100, lifting the peso and risk assets broadly.
Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls will set the Fed narrative for April. The April 6 Iran deadline remains the key binary event. Banxico‘s next statement will be scrutinized for any walk-back of the surprise cut after the oil-driven inflation surge intensifies.
08 Verdict
Monday’s +0.60% rebound was driven by commodity plays — Peñoles and Carso — rather than broad buying conviction. The MACD line turning positive is the first constructive technical signal of the month, but the peso’s fourth consecutive depreciation and WTI above $105 cap the upside. The IPC sits in no-man’s-land between the 66,031 support and the 67,836 resistance that would confirm a trend reversal.
Bias: Neutral with cautious improvement. The technical picture has shifted from outright bearish to neutral on the MACD crossover attempt. A sustained close above 67,836 would flip the bias bullish; a break below 66,031 would resume the bearish trend. The WSJ report on Trump’s willingness to end the war is the overnight wildcard.