Latin American Pulse for Thursday, April 2, 2026

Mexico’s Canciller De la Fuente Resigns — Velasco, Under 40, Would Be Youngest Since 1940 — FBI Team Lands in Havana to Investigate Florida Boat Shootout That Killed Five — Survivors Face Terrorism Charges — Petro Orders Two Brazilian C-390 Millennium Aircraft After Deadly Hércules Crash — Argentina’s $LIBRA Scandal Deepens: Draft $5M Agreement Between Milei and Davis Found on Novelli’s Phone — Gold Crashes 3.3% as Iran Premium Unwinds — MERVAL Touches 3 Million — Semana Santa Thins Markets

Risk Snapshot

Mexico: Canciller De la Fuente Resigns — Velasco Takes the Helm Mid-Crisis

Juan Ramón de la Fuente, 75, resigns citing two spine surgeries and need for extended rehabilitation; Roberto Velasco Álvarez, subsecretario for North America, nominated — would be youngest canciller since 1940; Sheinbaum: “he will return in another role”; change comes mid-Trump, mid-Iran, mid-USMCA review, 78 days before World Cup

What Happened

• —The resignation: Mexico’s Foreign Minister Juan Ramón de la Fuente resigned on Wednesday, confirmed by President Sheinbaum in a video from Palacio Nacional with both officials present. De la Fuente, 75, cited spinal complications requiring “a much more complete rehabilitation and possibly a new intervention.” He had taken medical leave in November 2025 for spine surgery, during which Velasco served as acting secretary. De la Fuente was ex-rector of UNAM and former permanent representative to the United Nations.
• —The replacement: Sheinbaum proposed Roberto Velasco Álvarez to the Senate. A lawyer with a Master’s in Public Policy from the University of Chicago, Velasco has been key in high-level negotiations with the US on security, migration, and water. He served as Communications Director at the SRE under López Obrador before rising to subsecretario for North America. At under 40, he would be Mexico’s youngest foreign minister since 1940. Senate ratification is required.
• —The stakes: Velasco inherits the most complex diplomatic portfolio in Latin America: the USMCA review (deadline July 1, during the World Cup), Rubio’s border security demands, the Cuba fuel file (Mexico evaluating private shipments), the tormenta negra disrupting Semana Santa travel, and a World Cup co-hosting role with 78 days to kickoff. Some critics have questioned whether Velasco has sufficient experience for the scale of the confrontation with Washington. IPC Mexico rose 1.59% on Wednesday to 69,702.02, shrugging off the change.

Why It Matters

The canciller transition arrives during Semana Santa, when domestic attention is diluted — which means the Senate ratification debate will unfold with less scrutiny than it deserves. Velasco’s Chicago credentials and North America desk experience signal a technocratic approach to what De la Fuente managed with institutional gravitas. His first real test is Rubio. His second is the USMCA. His third is whether Mexico can navigate the Cuba fuel file without triggering US sanctions. As covered in yesterday’s Pulse, Mexico’s tormenta negra continues across 19 states, compounding to make this a week of overlapping disruptions.

RISK: ELEVATED

Cuba: FBI Lands in Havana to Investigate the Florida Boat Shootout

FBI team arrived Wednesday for joint investigation of February 25 armed confrontation near Cayo Falcones; five dead including US citizens, six survivors facing terrorism charges; Florida-registered speedboat carried assault rifles, body armor, incendiary devices; family says boat was stolen; Rubio demands “independent information”; Cuba also detained 10 Panamanians for “propaganda”; oil tanker unloading day 3

What Happened

• —The FBI arrives: An FBI team arrived in Havana on Wednesday to conduct an independent investigation into the February 25 armed confrontation between Cuban coast guard and the occupants of a Florida-registered speedboat near Cayo Falcones, Villa Clara province — approximately one nautical mile from Cuba’s north coast. The visit, confirmed by EFE and AFP, is unprecedented in recent bilateral history. US officials said the investigators would not rely on Cuban-provided information but would “independently verify what happened.”
• —The incident: According to Cuba’s Interior Ministry (MININT), the speedboat — registration FL7726SH — carried ten people armed with assault rifles, handguns, incendiary devices, body armour, and camouflage uniforms. Cuban coast guard approached to identify the vessel; the occupants allegedly opened fire first, wounding the patrol commander. The resulting engagement killed four on scene; a fifth died later in hospital. Six survivors were detained and now face terrorism charges. At least one US citizen was killed and another injured. Cuba identified all occupants as Cuban nationals, though at least two held US citizenship — a discrepancy the FBI investigation aims to resolve.
• —The Florida angle: The boat’s owner family in Miami Lakes told the FBI the vessel had been stolen by an employee and was a fishing boat, never intended for an armed operation. The FBI visited the property and Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier ordered a state investigation. Secretary of State Rubio insisted on obtaining “independent information” before setting an official position.
• —Broader context: Separately, Cuba detained 10 Panamanian citizens accused of conducting “propaganda” against the government. The Anatoli Kolodkin continues its 96-hour unloading at Matanzas — day 3 of 4. And Mexico is evaluating private-sector fuel exports to Cuba. The simultaneous FBI presence, oil delivery, and political detentions make this the most complex moment in Cuba’s relationship with the hemisphere since Maduro’s capture in January.

Why It Matters

The FBI operating on Cuban soil — under a US administration that maintains maximum pressure on the island — is an extraordinary development. It requires cooperation between security services that have been adversaries for six decades. The investigation’s findings could have major diplomatic consequences: if the occupants were indeed armed paramilitaries from Florida, it raises questions about domestic security failures; if Cuba’s version is overstated, it feeds the regime’s narrative of external aggression. The detention of 10 Panamanians adds a separate tension line. And all of this happens while Russian oil is physically being unloaded at Matanzas with Trump’s blessing. Cuba is simultaneously receiving American investigators, Russian petroleum, and Mexican diplomatic outreach — a situation that has no historical precedent. As covered in the US intelligence brief, the Cuba file is now the most layered in the hemisphere.

RISK: CRITICAL

Colombia: Petro Orders Brazilian C-390 Aircraft After Deadly Hércules Crash

President orders purchase of two Embraer C-390 Millennium tactical transports at Consejo de Ministros; decision follows Hércules C-130 crash in Putumayo that killed 70 servicemen; $90-120M per unit; Lula alliance drives selection over Airbus A400M and Lockheed C-130J; FAC also recently purchased Swedish Gripen fighters; 80% of Colombia’s 95% cargo moves by air in conflict zones

What Happened

• —The order: President Gustavo Petro ordered the formal initiation of a procurement process for two Embraer C-390 Millennium tactical-strategic transport aircraft during a Consejo de Ministros meeting. The decision was driven by Petro’s commitment to a defence alliance with Brazil, forged through conversations with President Lula da Silva. The C-390 — the largest military aircraft produced in the Southern Hemisphere — carries up to 26 tonnes and is valued at $90-120 million per unit depending on configuration.
• —The catalyst: The order follows the crash of Fuerza Aeroespacial Colombiana Hércules C-130 FAC 1016 in Puerto Leguízamo, Putumayo, on March 23, which killed 70 military personnel — Colombia’s deadliest military aviation disaster. Two of the FAC’s remaining C-130H aircraft are currently out of service awaiting spare parts. Petro publicly blamed the previous Duque administration for purchasing what he called “chatarra.” The aging Hércules fleet has been the backbone of Colombia’s military transport for decades but is now critically degraded.
• —The alliance angle: While the FAC had also been evaluating the Airbus A400M Atlas and Lockheed Martin C-130J Super Hercules, the presidential directive specifically favours the Brazilian option — reflecting the Petro-Lula political alignment. Colombia recently completed the acquisition of Swedish SAAB Gripen fighters (compatible with the C-390 for aerial refuelling), and previous administrations had explored having Colombian companies manufacture C-390 components. The procurement must still comply with Colombian contracting law, and the FAC retains the other platforms as alternatives. Argentina’s FADEA already supplies the C-390’s tail cone, cargo door, and landing gear doors.

Why It Matters

This is the most significant Latin American defence procurement decision of the year — and it is being driven by politics as much as operational need. Petro choosing the Brazilian C-390 over the American C-130J is a statement about where Colombia’s defence relationships are heading under a left-wing government that is simultaneously fighting FARC dissidents and building ties with Lula’s Brazil. The C-390 is also the first major military aircraft where Latin American countries (Brazil, Argentina, Colombia) would be in the same supply chain. If the purchase closes, Colombia joins Brazil, Portugal, Hungary, the Netherlands, Austria, Czech Republic, and South Korea as C-390 operators — a club that notably excludes the United States. COLCAP closed at 2,280.95 (−0.24%) on Wednesday. As covered in the Defense Monitor, Latin American military modernisation is accelerating across the board.

RISK: ELEVATED

Argentina: The $LIBRA Scandal Tightens Around Milei

812 GB recovered from Novelli’s phone reveal draft $5M agreement between Milei and Hayden Davis dated three days before token launch; fiscal Taiano had evidence since November 2025 but sat on it; at least 8 phone calls between Novelli and Milei on launch day; previous crypto scam Vulcano also promoted by Milei in 2022; opposition revives parliamentary commission; justice minister calls evidence leak “very serious”

What Happened

• —The phone data: Digital forensics teams recovered 812.72 GB from the iPhone of crypto lobbyist Mauricio Novelli — including thousands of documents, voice notes, text messages, and deleted files. The material, now part of the case file before fiscal federal Eduardo Taiano and judge Marcelo Martínez De Giorgi, reveals a draft agreement dated February 11, 2025 — three days before the $LIBRA token launch — outlining $5 million in payments to Milei: $1.5M upfront, $1.5M upon the president’s public endorsement, and $2M for a signed contract for “blockchain/AI advisory” to the Argentine government.
• —The calls: Phone records show Novelli attempted to call Milei at 18:44 on February 14, 2025 — the launch day. The account that created the $ARG token (a parallel project) was funded at exactly that moment. Three more calls followed at 18:54, 18:56, and 18:58. At 19:01, Milei posted the $LIBRA link on X. The token surged from centavos to approximately $5 before collapsing in a classic rug-pull that generated at least $100 million in investor losses. The investigation also revealed Novelli had promoted a previous failed crypto project called Vulcano in 2022, which Milei also endorsed — and which collapsed shortly after.
• —The judicial delay: Journalist Natalia Volosin revealed that fiscal Taiano had received the first forensic report detailing the draft agreement and invoices by November 17, 2025 — over four months before the evidence became public. Opposition lawmakers led by Ferraro filed a complaint against Taiano for allegedly obstructing the investigation. Justice Minister Mahiques called the evidence leak “very serious” and questioned whether the chain of custody was intact, suggesting parts may have been “manipulated.” The parliamentary commission investigating $LIBRA has been revived.
• —The market: MERVAL touched an all-time intraday high of 3,018,033.68 — breaching 3 million for the first time — before settling at 2,999,341.73 (+0.05%). The scandal has not derailed the equity rally, which remains driven by the poverty data (28.2%) and global risk-on sentiment. Argentina’s riesgo país stands at 612.

Why It Matters

The $LIBRA scandal now has three documented layers: a draft contract for $5 million, real-time phone coordination on launch day, and a pattern of prior crypto promotions that also failed. Milei’s defence — that he found the token randomly online and had no financial relationship with the project — is increasingly difficult to sustain against 812 GB of forensic evidence. The market is not pricing the political risk yet, with MERVAL at record highs. But October’s legislative elections are approaching, and opposition lawmakers are now armed with a documentary trail that connects the presidency to what appears to be a coordinated pump-and-dump. The question is whether Taiano accelerates or whether the evidence continues to leak through the press faster than the courts can act. As covered in yesterday’s Pulse, Milei’s poverty triumph at 28.2% and the $LIBRA liability now coexist in a single political narrative heading into October.

RISK: ELEVATED

Regional Snapshot

Markets at a Glance

Equity indices and commodities: Wednesday April 1, 2026 closes from TradingView Tier 0 charts (timestamped 05:53–05:54 UTC, April 2). IPSA O 10,640.08 H 10,856.29 L 10,640.08 C 10,856.29 (+2.03%). IPC O 68,597.24 H 69,928.49 L 68,597.24 C 69,702.02 (+1.59%). IBOV O 187,462.68 H 189,130.90 L 187,255.65 C 187,952.91 (+0.26%). MERVAL O 2,997,780.34 H 3,018,033.68 L 2,944,673.20 C 2,999,341.73 (+0.05%). COLCAP O 2,286.41 H 2,287.52 L 2,255.18 C 2,280.95 (−0.24%). Gold O 4,758.18 H 4,800.10 L 4,585.57 C 4,601.33 (−3.30%). Silver O 74.799 H 75.828 L 70.231 C 70.769 (−5.71%). BTC O 68,104 H 68,644 L 66,216 C 66,496 (−2.36%). Mexico canciller from Infobae/La Jornada/El Financiero/SDP Noticias. FBI Cuba from CiberCuba/Infobae/CNN en Español/EFE. Colombia C-390 from Infodefensa/Vanguardia/Defensa.com. Argentina $LIBRA from Infobae/Buenos Aires Times/Perfil/Página 12. Peru from La República/RPP. Previous Pulse editions.

The Week Ahead