Global Economy Briefing: January 27, 2026

Key Points

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• U.S. consumers turned sharply more cautious, even as house prices kept rising and services improved in Texas.

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• Europe’s labor and demand signals were mixed: Spain’s unemployment fell, Germany’s car market was strong, France’s confidence held.

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• Latin America was split: Mexico posted a larger trade surplus, while Brazil’s confidence slipped and inflation stayed sticky.

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United States

\nThe headline was weaker confidence. Conference Board consumer confidence fell to 84.5 from 94.2, a big drop. Housing stayed firm. FHFA rose 0.6% m/m and 1.9% y/y, and Case-Shiller 20-city was up 0.5% m/m s.a. with 1.4% y/y.
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\nLabor signals stayed calm: ADP was 7.75k and Redbook rose 7.1% y/y. Regional activity was mixed. Richmond manufacturing was still negative at −6, but shipments improved to −5 and services improved to −3.
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\nTexas services turned positive: revenues 7.8 and outlook 2.7. Funding stayed tight. The 5-year auction cleared at 3.823% and M2 rose to $22.40T.
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\nOil looked balanced: API showed a small draw (−0.247M). Net: consumers are nervous, but housing and services are still holding up.
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Europe and UK

\nSpain’s unemployment fell to 9.93% in Q4 from 10.45%, a real improvement for incomes. Germany’s 2-year auction inched up to 2.140%. France’s consumer confidence stayed at 90. The auto picture was noisy but revealing.
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\nGermany was strong (+9.7% y/y) even as m/m dipped; Italy was +2.3% y/y but −13.0% m/m; France was −5.8% y/y with a big m/m bounce; the UK was +3.9% y/y with a small m/m drop.
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\nJapan’s core CPI eased to 1.9% y/y, reinforcing a slow normalization path. Net: Europe’s labor is improving at the margin, but demand remains uneven across countries.
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Canada

\nWholesale sales jumped 2.1% m/m after a weak prior month. That points to a better goods pulse into early Q1.
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Asia-Pacific

\nIndia’s money growth slowed to 10.5% y/y from 12.1%, suggesting less liquidity momentum. Japan’s policy minutes were on the calendar.
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\nAustralia printed a mixed inflation set: CPI was 3.6% y/y with 0.6% q/q, while trimmed mean rose 0.9% q/q and 3.4% y/y. Weighted measures were firm. That keeps the RBA cautious on cuts.
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Latin America and Africa

\nMexico’s trade balance improved: the headline print was 2.43B, with the USD series at −$0.86B. Either way, the direction was better than prior.
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\nBrazil’s mid-month CPI was 0.20% m/m and 4.50% y/y, slightly higher than before, while consumer confidence fell to 87.3. South Africa’s leading indicators rose to 118.40, pointing to better momentum later this quarter. Chile held its policy rate at 4.50%.
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What it means

\nThis was a “confidence shock, not an activity shock” day in the U.S. Housing and services still support growth, but weaker sentiment can hit spending with a lag.
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\nEurope’s unemployment improvement is constructive, but car data show demand is patchy. Mexico’s external picture is improving, while Brazil remains flow- and inflation-sensitive. Australia’s sticky core measures argue for policy patience.
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\nTilt: keep quality duration; favor U.S. services over consumer discretionary; stay selective in Europe; prefer Mexico over Brazil until Brazil’s inflation and flows improve.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily global economic intelligence for the Latin American financial community.

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