Global Economy Briefing: January 23, 2026

Key Points

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• Global growth still runs on services: the UK surged, Germany held up, and India stayed hot.

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• The weak spots were clear: France’s services slipped below 50, Mexico’s activity turned negative, and China’s FDI fell again.

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• U.S. sentiment improved and inflation expectations eased, but leading indicators stayed soft.

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United States

\nThe U.S. picture was “steady now, cautious later.” S&P Global PMIs stayed expansionary: manufacturing 51.9, services 52.5, composite 52.8.
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\nMichigan sentiment improved to 56.4, with current conditions up to 55.4 and expectations at 57.0.
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\nInflation expectations eased at the front end: one-year fell to 4.0%, while five-year rose slightly to 3.3%.
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\nThe Leading Index stayed negative at −0.3% in November after −0.1% in October, so the forward signal is still weak. Oil supply was stable: rigs 411 and total rigs 544.
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\nNet: the consumer mood is better, but the pipeline indicators still warn.
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Europe and UK

\nThe UK was the upside surprise. Retail sales rose 0.4% m/m and 2.5% y/y, with core up 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y.
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\nPMIs jumped: composite 53.9, services 54.3, manufacturing 51.6. That is a real re-acceleration in private demand.
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\nThe euro area was mixed. Composite was steady at 51.5, but services eased to 51.9 while manufacturing improved to 49.4.
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\nGermany outperformed: composite 52.5, services 53.3, manufacturing 48.7. France weakened: manufacturing held at 51.0, but services fell to 47.9 and the composite to 48.6.
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\nFrance’s business survey rose to 105, so sentiment is not collapsing, but activity in services is.
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\nRead-through: Europe is a Germany-led stabilization, with France lagging and the bloc still shy of a broad manufacturing rebound.
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Canada

\nRetail was strong in November and soft in December. November headline rose 1.3% m/m and core 1.7% m/m.
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\nDecember slipped −0.5% m/m. That looks like a strong pre-holiday run and a payback month, not a collapse.
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Asia-Pacific

\nIndia stayed hot across the board: manufacturing 56.8, services 59.3, composite 59.5. FX reserves jumped to $701.36B from $687.19B, strengthening buffers.
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\nJapan’s BoJ press conference was on the calendar, but no new policy change was listed here.
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\nChina’s FDI fell 9.5% y/y, worse than the prior −7.5%, a reminder that capital remains cautious.
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Latin America and Africa

\nMexico’s activity rolled over. Economic activity fell −0.2% m/m and −0.1% y/y, well below expectations, a clear warning for Q1 momentum.
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\nColombia slowed but stayed positive: industrial production 0.7% y/y and retail sales 7.5% y/y, both lower than prior readings.
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\nNet: Mexico is the region’s soft spot; Colombia is cooling, not breaking.
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Positioning and risk

\nCFTC showed risk mixed. Crude length rose to 78.8k, while S&P 500 net shorts narrowed to −81.8k.
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\nEUR net length fell to 111.7k, and GBP shorts continued to cover (−22.0k). MXN net length rose to 107.2k.
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\nThe market is still treating Mexico as a carry trade, but the macro data are weakening.
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What it means

\nThis was a “services world” day. Where services are strong, growth is holding. The UK and India look firm. Germany looks stable.
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\nFrance and Mexico are the main red flags. If Mexico stays negative, it can drag regional trade and sentiment.
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\nIf France’s services weakness persists, euro growth will stay narrow.
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\nFor positioning: keep quality duration, prefer service-heavy markets, stay selective in Europe, and treat MXN exposure as data-dependent rather than automatic.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily global economic intelligence for the Latin American financial community.

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