Global Economy Briefing — August 26, 2026
Global economy: Wall Street rises as yields and oil fall, Brazil's Selic stands at 14% after a fourth cut, and markets wait for US inflation data.
Rio Times Global Economy Briefing
The Big Three
- Wall Street edges higher as yields and oil retreat The Dow rose 0.30% to 53,577, the S&P 500 added 0.32% to 7,677 and the Nasdaq climbed 0.66% to 26,151 as cheaper oil and a dip in the 10-year US Treasury yield calmed markets.
- Chip shares rebound ahead of Nvidia earnings US gains were led by big technology names, with the main semiconductor index recovering part of Monday’s slide of more than 3% as investors positioned for Nvidia’s results on Wednesday.
- Brazil’s Copom keeps cutting but stays data-dependent The central bank’s fourth straight quarter-point cut took the Selic to 14.00%, a full point below the 15.00% peak, and the bank’s Focus survey points to one more cut, to 13.75%, in September.
Europe & United Kingdom
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stoxx 600 (Tue close) | +0.35% | DAX +0.61%, CAC -0.16% | Europe followed Wall Street higher |
| Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Aug 27) | — | — | Morale still deep in negative territory |
Asia-Pacific & Emerging Markets
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil Selic rate | 14.00% | 14.25% | Fourth straight cut, real rates still high |
| Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (Aug 26) | -0.31% expected monthly | +0.07% prior | Power-bill bonus drives expected deflation |
| Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (Aug 26) | 4.34% expected annual | — | Would sit inside the 4.5% target ceiling |
| China Industrial Profits (Aug 27) | — | — | Profit-growth trend in focus |
| Japan Tokyo CPI (Aug 28) | — | — | Early read on August inflation |
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,677 | +0.32% |
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 174,577 | +1.55% |
| USD/BRL | 5.1404 | -0.25% |
Global economy — Source: RT close, 2026-08-25. Figures rendered directly from the feed.
Today’s Economic Calendar — Wednesday, August 26, 2026
| Time | Country | Event | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:30 | DE | 15-Year Bund Auction | — | 3.29 |
| 11:00 | US | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -0.4 |
| 11:00 | US | MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | — | 6.77 |
| 11:00 | US | MBA Purchase Index | — | 154.8 |
| 11:00 | US | MBA Mortgage Market Index | — | 247.7 |
| 11:00 | US | MBA Mortgage Refinance Index | — | 755.9 |
| 12:00 | BR | IPCA mid-month CPI (monthly) | -0.31 | 0.07 |
| 12:00 | BR | IPCA mid-month CPI (annual) | 4.34 | — |
| 12:30 | US | GDP, Q2 second estimate | — | — |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders | 0.7 | 0.3 |
Live Market IntelligenceGlobal Markets — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Global Markets — Live Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7,751 | +0.29% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NDX | 29,799 | +0.93% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DJI | 53,810 | +0.03% | — | — | — | — | — |
| RUT | 3,041 | +0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| US10Y | 4.6760 | -0.17% | — | — | — | — | — |
| VIX | 14.60 | -4.45% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DAX | 26,331 | -0.23% | — | — | — | — | — |
| FTSE | 10,833 | -0.10% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CAC | 8,675 | -0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| STOXX | 659.48 | -0.16% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIKKEI | 67,524 | +0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| HSI | 25,440 | -0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| KOSPI | 6,579 | +3.68% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CSI300 | 4,691 | +0.58% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIFTY | 24,436 | -0.15% | — | — | — | — | — |
| TSX | 36,619 | +0.39% | — | — | — | — | — |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
01 Risk rally saved by softer yields
US shares advanced on Tuesday as investors looked through recent volatility, helped by falling oil prices and a dip in Treasury yields. The Dow closed 0.30% higher at 53,577, the S&P 500 added 0.32% to 7,677 and the Nasdaq led with a gain of 0.66% to 26,151.
For Latin American assets, firmer Wall Street and slightly lower US yields offer short-term relief after weeks of choppy cross-border flows.
Technology and chip shares recouped part of Monday’s losses as investors positioned ahead of Nvidia’s earnings, due on Wednesday. The main US semiconductor index recovered ground after sliding more than 3% on Monday.
The tech-led tone keeps global benchmarks exposed to earnings surprises. For Brazil and the wider region, enthusiasm for US growth and AI stories tends to support appetite for risk, though it can also crowd money back into the biggest US names when volatility spikes.
Oil’s slide fed the move lower in yields and powered the modest rally in shares. Brent futures fell about 3.6% to roughly US$87.30 a barrel, while US crude settled near US$82.36.
Cheaper crude cuts both ways for Latin America — it eases imported inflation in countries that buy oil abroad, but squeezes government budgets in exporters. That balance will colour how investors judge regional currencies like Brazil’s real against the dollar in coming weeks.
02 Copom walks a narrow line
Brazil’s Copom cut the benchmark Selic by a quarter point to 14.00% at its 5 August meeting, its fourth consecutive reduction. The cycle has now taken a full percentage point off the 15.00% peak.
The committee, led by Governor Gabriel Galípolo, stressed that future moves will depend on incoming data. The central bank’s Focus survey points to one more quarter-point cut, to 13.75%, at the September meeting, though nothing is pre-committed.
With 12-month inflation at 4.44% in July, Brazil’s inflation-adjusted interest rate is still around 9% — one of the highest in the world. That anchors the real, but it also weighs on credit and growth at home.
The real has held firm since the decision, with the dollar slipping to about 5.14 reais by Tuesday’s close. Any renewed rise in US yields or tougher talk from the Fed could quickly pressure the currency and complicate plans for further gradual cuts.
The dollar index was little changed near 99 on Tuesday, while the 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 4.64% from around 4.70% on Monday. A calm dollar and lower US yields give Copom room to prioritise growth without rushing to defend the real.
Still, the VIX at 15.45 shows investors remain watchful. Any surprise from the Fed — Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole on Friday — could quickly reverse that supportive backdrop.
03 Deflation pulse gives Brazil room
Brazil’s mid-month inflation reading for August, due on Wednesday, is expected to show prices falling 0.31% on the month, helped by an Itaipu bonus credit on power bills. The 12-month rate is seen at 4.34%, after a 0.07% monthly rise in July.
A negative monthly print would confirm the disinflation trend Copom has cited to justify its measured cuts. It would also pull the 12-month rate back inside the central bank’s tolerance band, which tops out at 4.5%.
A soft reading would strengthen the case for the quarter-point cut markets expect in September, though Copom has been careful not to promise a fixed path. On Thursday, the central bank publishes July figures for the current account and foreign direct investment, watched for signs of how easily Brazil finances its external gap.
Elsewhere in the region, Mexico revises its second-quarter growth figure and releases fresh inflation data this week. Across the big Latin American economies the pattern is gradual cooling rather than a sharp downturn, leaving central banks room to manage rates without triggering capital flight.
The dominant outside driver remains the path of US yields and the dollar. Wednesday brings the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, plus a second estimate of US second-quarter growth.
What to watch today and this week
- Wednesday: US PCE inflation, second estimate of Q2 growth, durable goods orders, Nvidia earnings after the US close, Brazil IPCA mid-month inflation
- Thursday: Jackson Hole symposium begins (through Saturday), US initial jobless claims and advance goods trade balance, Brazil July current account and foreign investment, China industrial profits, Germany GfK confidence
- Friday: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole, Tokyo CPI and Japan unemployment (early Friday, Japan time), US Michigan consumer sentiment and payrolls benchmark revision
- Ongoing: Nvidia earnings fallout, Brazil’s inflation path and the Selic, commodity price swings
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Wall Street rise on Tuesday?
Softer Treasury yields and falling oil prices eased pressure on rate-sensitive sectors, helping the S&P 500 add 0.32% to 7,677 and the Dow close 0.30% higher at 53,577.
What is Brazil’s Selic rate now?
Copom cut the Selic by a quarter point to 14.00% at its August meeting, the fourth straight reduction, taking total easing to a full percentage point from the 15.00% peak.
How does the US dollar index affect Latin America?
The dollar index held near 99 on Tuesday, little changed on the day. A steady dollar takes some pressure off emerging-market currencies like the real and keeps conditions favourable for local-currency debt.
What is the current US 10-year Treasury yield?
The 10-year yield eased to about 4.64% on Tuesday, down from around 4.70% on Monday, lowering borrowing costs globally.
What is driving tech shares higher?
Chip shares recouped part of Monday’s slide of more than 3% in the main US semiconductor index, with investors positioning ahead of Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
LatAm Markets: Live Signals → — real-time movers, turnover leaders and FX across Latin America.