Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for February 7, 2025
Brazilian financial markets are preparing for a day filled with significant economic data releases from both domestic and international fronts that are poised to influence market sentiment, policy directions, and potentially the trajectory of Brazil’s economy.
Today’s agenda is packed with indicators that will provide critical insights into not just the health of Brazil’s economy but also how it fits into the global economic puzzle. These events are particularly important for Brazil, given its reliance on exports, sensitivity to commodity prices, and the impact of global financial policies on domestic markets.
Globally, the day will be marked by economic releases and policy statements from major economies, offering a snapshot of the world’s economic health. This global economic pulse can significantly affect Brazil’s financial markets, commodity prices, and investor sentiment.
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Economic Agenda for February 7, 2025:
Brazil
- 9:00 AM – IPCA: A critical indicator of inflation, influencing expectations for monetary policy and interest rates.
- 3:00 PM – Trade Balance: Reflects Brazil’s export and import dynamics, crucial for understanding the country’s trade health and currency strength.
Mexico
- 9:00 AM – CPI: Influences regional inflation expectations and monetary policy, indirectly affecting Brazilian markets through trade and investment ties]
United States and Canada
- 10:30 AM: United States Payroll
- 8:30 AM: United States Average Hourly Earnings (YoY), Average Hourly Earnings (MoM), Nonfarm Payrolls, Participation Rate, Payrolls Benchmark, Private Nonfarm Payrolls, U6 Unemployment Rate, Unemployment Rate
- 8:30 AM: Canada Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
- 10:00 AM: Fed Monetary Policy Report, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan Consumer Sentiment
- 1:00 PM: Atlanta Fed GDPNow, U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count, U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count
- 3:00 PM: Consumer Credit
- 3:30 PM: CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions, CFTC Gold speculative net positions, CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions, CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions
Europe
- 4:00 AM: Germany Trade Balance
- 2:00 AM: German Industrial Production (MoM), German Trade Balance
- 3:45 AM: ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
- 2:00 AM: Halifax House Price Index (MoM), Halifax House Price Index (YoY)
- 7:15 AM: BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks
- 5:00 AM: Mortgage Rate (GBP)
Rest of the World
- 3:30 PM: CFTC AUD speculative net positions
- 3:30 PM: CFTC JPY speculative net positions
- 3:30 PM: CFTC EUR speculative net positions
- 3:30 PM: CFTC BRL speculative net positions
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Brazilian stock exchange’s main index, Ibovespa, continued its upward trend, bolstered by strong performances from banks and Vale (VALE3). The Ibovespa closed up 0.55% at 126,224.74 points, while the dollar dropped to R$5.7639, a decrease of 0.52%.
President Lula da Silva recently claimed that Brazil’s economy is experiencing its peak performance. He expressed confidence in the ongoing GDP growth and suggested that the dollar’s value against the real is normalizing, with inflation under control.
Itaú (ITUB4) reported a significant profit increase for Q4 2024, with a recurring management profit of R$10.9 billion, up 15.8% from the previous year.
This news, combined with improved profitability and reduced default rates, supported the banking sector’s performance. In related news, the government forecasts the completion of the airline merger within 12 months, as stated by the Minister of Ports and Airports, Silvio Costa Filho.
Meanwhile, Raízen (RAIZ4) shares jumped over 10% after reports suggested the company might increase capital to manage Cosan’s debt. On the negative side, Automob (AMOB3) led the declines without specific corporate news, and Embraer (EMBR3) saw a retreat following gains from the previous day.
Read more on currency movements…
U.S. Markets Yesterday
Wall Street drifted to a mixed close as drops for Ford Motor and Qualcomm worked against buoyant fashion and cigarette stocks.
The S&P 500 rose 0.4% Thursday following healthy gains for stock markets across much of Europe and Asia. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 125 points, or 0.3%, and the Nasdaq composite rose 0.5%.
Both Ford and Qualcomm fell despite reporting better profits than expected. Tapestry, Ralph Lauren, and Philip Morris International rose.
- The S&P 500 rose 22.09 points, or 0.4%, to 6,083.57.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 125.65 points, or 0.3%, to 44,747.63.
- The Nasdaq composite rose 99.66 points, or 0.5%, to 19,791.99.
- The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 9.11 points, or 0.4%, to 2,307.12.
Commodity Markets
Oil Prices
The market saw a significant drop with oil prices plummeting due to soaring U.S. stockpiles and Trump’s strategy focus on Iran. Read more…
Gold Prices
Gold hit record highs before experiencing a sharp decline, influenced by economic uncertainties. Read more…
Crypto Prices
As of 08:00 AM CET on February 7, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a slight decline, trading at approximately $98,000 after a 1% drop overnight. Read more…
Companies and Markets
Itaú (ITUB4): Reported a significant profit increase for Q4 2024, with a recurring management profit of R$10.9 billion, up 15.8% from the previous year. Read more…
ArcelorMittal: Committed up to $670 million to upgrade Tubarão steel plant in Brazil, signaling confidence in the sector. Read more…
Brazil’s Insurance Sector: Recorded a record high with 12.2% growth in 2024. Read more…
Estapar: Financial leap with revenue up 17%, adding 30,000 spaces in 4Q24. Read more…
Prio: January production jumped 8%, yet stock volatility lingers. Read more…
Inter: Q4 2024 financial report shows record profits amidst market volatility. Read more…
Neoenergia: Sells Baixo Iguacu hydroelectric stake to EDF and Stoa for $238 million. Read more…
Lula Backs Amazon Oil Exploration: With a green twist. Read more…
Log CP: Sees an 80% profit surge in 2024, driven by e-commerce growth. Read more…
Outlook
Today’s global economic data releases and policy announcements will be pivotal. Investors will monitor these closely for signs of shifts in economic policies or market sentiment, especially concerning inflation, commodity prices, and interest rate expectations in response to these developments.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-0.10%
166,934.20
-0.10%
64,573.59
-0.39%
11,042.69
+0.39%
2,954,090
-1.55%
2,457.60
+1.05%
58,104.31
+1.68%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 166,934.20 | -0.10% | +21.85% | 167,100.95 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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