The Big Three
The S&P Merval bounced 0.32% to 2,840,787.49 on Friday after dipping to 2,803,645 intraday — briefly piercing below the 50-day SMA (2,826,458), the lower Bollinger Band (2,818,409), and approaching the 200-day SMA (2,792,486). The index opened at 2,831,902, pushed to 2,857,977, sold off to the 2,803,645 low — the closest the Merval has come to the 200-day SMA since the March correction bottom — then recovered to close at 2,840,787 on the cloud bottom. The intraday probe below the 50-day SMA and lower Bollinger Band with a recovery back above both produces the first constructive signal since the selloff accelerated on Wednesday. The February–March precedent is clear: the Merval’s MACD did not flatten until it found the 200-day SMA. Friday’s low at 2,803,645 is 11,159 points (0.4%) above the 200-SMA — close enough to suggest the proximity effect is generating buying interest.
The MACD histogram deepened to −17,356 — from −14,504 (Thursday) — even as price bounced, extending the divergence pattern into its seventh session. The MACD line at 32,727 is now far below the signal at 15,371. The histogram’s trajectory since the bearish cross (−3,286 → −4,747 → −5,280 → −8,369 → −14,504 → −17,356) shows unrelenting momentum deterioration. RSI signal at 45.36 remains well below 50. Every momentum indicator remains bearish. The constructive signal is limited to the price action: the recovery from the intraday low is the only element arguing for stabilization.
The structural argument for the Merval is fraying at the edges — but the core remains intact. The Buenos Aires Times documented the challenge: Argentine stocks trade at a forward P/E of 19.8x (vs Brazil’s 13.4x, Chile’s 15.6x, Mexico’s 15.9x) while the MSCI LatAm index has rallied 20%+ and the Merval has underperformed. Analysts note that “validating these valuations requires confidence that earnings will grow strongly this year” — and that evidence has not arrived. The economy grew 4.4% in 2025, but the EMAE shows a two-speed picture: agriculture +25% while manufacturing −2.6% and retail −3.2%. The soybean harvest, Vaca Muerta production, BCRA reserves (~$3.3B YTD vs $10B target), and the fiscal surplus remain positive — but the forward P/E demands earnings delivery, not just policy promises.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| S&P Merval Close | 2,840,787.49 | +0.32% (+8,938.95) |
| Session Low (200-SMA area) | 2,803,645.22 | below 50-SMA & lower BB |
| Close / Cloud bottom | 2,840,787 | recovered to cloud edge |
| 50-day SMA (pierced, recovered) | 2,826,458 | close above |
| 200-day SMA | 2,792,486 | 0.4% below Fri low |
| MACD histogram (deepest 2026) | −17,356 | from −14,504 prior |
| RSI (14) / Signal | 55.98 / 45.36 | signal well below 50 |
| Cloud top (resistance) | 2,902,741 | distant |
| Forward P/E (LatAm highest) | 19.8x | vs Brazil 13.4x, Chile 15.6x |
02 Equities — The 200-SMA Proximity Effect
Merval Argentina today enters Monday’s session on the cloud bottom after the S&P Merval bounced 0.32% on Friday from an intraday low that briefly pierced below the 50-day SMA and the lower Bollinger Band. This Argentina stock market report covers the session that tested the deepest support since the March correction bottom — and held. The recovery from 2,803,645 to 2,840,787 (a 37,142-point intraday reversal) is the first evidence of buying interest at major support levels since the selloff began. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Latin American equity markets.
The intraday low at 2,803,645 sat just 11,159 points (0.4%) above the 200-day SMA at 2,792,486. In the February–March correction, the Merval found its floor at the 200-day SMA (then near 2,700,000) before launching the rally that eventually reached 2,955,991. The proximity of Friday’s low to the 200-day creates the question that defines Monday: is the 200-SMA proximity generating the buying interest that turns the correction, or is the market pausing before the next leg down toward a 200-SMA test?
The weekly scorecard is brutal: the Merval went from the Kijun-sen (2,940,100 on Tuesday) to the cloud bottom (2,840,787 on Friday) — a 99,313-point decline (−3.4%) in three sessions. The index is up just 1.41% over the past month and 27.84% year-over-year (per Trading Economics), but the LatAm underperformance is stark: the MSCI LatAm index has rallied 20%+ while the Merval has lagged. The 19.8x forward P/E requires earnings delivery that has not materialized.
03 The Valuation Problem
The Merval’s correction is not just technical — it is a valuation reckoning. At 19.8x forward P/E, the Merval is the most expensive major index in Latin America. Brazil trades at 13.4x. Chile at 15.6x. Mexico at 15.9x. The Milei reform premium — the belief that fiscal austerity, deregulation, and Vaca Muerta growth would deliver sustained earnings acceleration — was priced in during the October 2025 midterm rally and has not been validated by earnings in the six months since.
The economy grew 4.4% in 2025, but the composition is problematic: agriculture surged 25% while manufacturing fell 2.6% and retail dropped 3.2%. The two-speed economy means the Merval’s financials-and-energy weighting captures the resource boom but misses the consumer pain. The April CPI print (May 14) is the next test: a reading below 3% monthly would restore some of the disinflation thesis; anything above 3% confirms the structural re-acceleration that has eroded Milei’s 36% approval rating. Country risk at ~500 bps remains the gate for private market access and refinancing of the US$19 billion maturity wall.
04 Technical Analysis — S&P Merval Daily
From the chart: O:2,831,901.65, H:2,857,976.56, L:2,803,645.22, C:2,840,787.49 (+8,938.95, +0.32%). Friday’s candle has a long lower wick (2,803,645 to 2,840,787) — a hammer pattern that forms at the cloud bottom after a sharp decline. The wick pierced below the 50-day SMA and the lower Bollinger Band before recovering. The close at 2,840,787 sits at the cloud bottom / 50-SMA area — the same confluence that Thursday’s crash brought the index to.
MACD at 32,727 with signal at 15,371 (histogram −17,356) is the deepest negative of 2026 and continues to widen. RSI at 55.98 with signal at 45.36 remains bearish. The 200-day SMA at 2,792,486 is the ultimate backstop — 1.7% below Friday’s close. The cloud top at 2,902,741 is the first major resistance on any rally — a 2.2% move higher. The technical picture remains bearish on every indicator, with Friday’s intraday reversal as the only constructive element.
05 Key Levels
| Level | S&P Merval |
| 21-day EMA (distant resistance) | 2,909,866 |
| Cloud top / Tenkan (resistance) | 2,902,741 |
| Kijun-sen | 2,868,162 |
| Friday Close / Cloud bottom | 2,840,787 |
| 50-day SMA | 2,826,458 |
| Lower Bollinger Band | 2,818,409 |
| 200-day SMA (ultimate support) | 2,792,486 |
06 Looking Ahead
Monday determines whether Friday’s hammer candle is the beginning of a base-building process or a dead-cat bounce within a deeper decline. A hold above 2,826,458 (50-day SMA) with a move toward the Kijun-sen (2,868,162) would suggest the cloud bottom is holding and the correction is stabilizing. A break below 2,803,645 (Friday’s low) would target the 200-day SMA at 2,792,486 — and the February–March precedent says the MACD does not flatten until the 200-day is reached.
Key dates: May 14 — April INDEC CPI (below 3% restores disinflation thesis; above 3% confirms re-acceleration). Rolling through April–May — peak soybean harvest dollar inflows. BCRA targeting US$10 billion in 2026 reserves. US$19 billion in debt maturities. Country risk ~500 bps threshold.
07 Verdict
Friday was the session that tested the deepest support and held — barely. The +0.32% bounce from a 2,803,645 low (below the 50-day SMA and lower Bollinger Band) to a 2,840,787 close (cloud bottom) produces a hammer candle at a major support confluence. But the MACD at −17,356 — deepest of 2026 — means the momentum picture has not begun to stabilize. The valuation argument (19.8x P/E, LatAm’s most expensive) weighs against a V-shaped recovery. The structural thesis (fiscal surplus, Vaca Muerta, soybean harvest, BCRA reserves) provides the floor. The 200-day SMA at 2,792,486, 1.7% below Friday’s close, is the ultimate backstop.
Bias: Bearish — but the 200-SMA proximity is generating buyers. The Merval at 2,840,787 is trapped between the cloud bottom (support) and the cloud interior (resistance), with the MACD at its deepest negative of the year. The intraday recovery from 2,803,645 is the first hint of demand at major support. But until the MACD histogram begins to narrow, every bounce is a selling opportunity within a bearish regime. The April CPI (May 14) and country risk (~500 bps) are the fundamental catalysts. The 200-day SMA is the line that, if tested and held, could produce the same kind of recovery as February–March. Watch 2,803,645 (Friday’s low) below and 2,868,162 (Kijun) above.
Related coverage:
Previous Merval report: Merval Crashes 2.31% to Cloud Bottom at 2.83M
Valuation challenge: Argentine Stocks Left Behind as Earnings Growth Eludes Milei
Economy guide: Argentina Economy 2026: Milei’s Shock Therapy Is Working
Regional markets: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Complete Guide
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published by The Rio Times.