The Big Three
The S&P Merval crashed 2.31% to 2,831,848.54 on Thursday — the largest single-session decline of the entire selloff and a direct hit on the cloud bottom / 50-day SMA confluence that the prior report identified as “the next make-or-break level.” The index opened at 2,898,692 (Wednesday’s close), pushed marginally to 2,904,282, then collapsed to a session low of 2,830,075 — briefly piercing below the cloud bottom and the 50-day SMA — before closing at 2,831,849. The two-session decline from the cloud interior totals −3.68% (−66,843 points) and has brought the Merval from above the Kijun-sen to the cloud bottom in 48 hours. This is the fastest intra-cloud traverse of the 2026 cycle.
The MACD histogram exploded to −14,504 — nearly doubling from Wednesday’s −8,369 and producing the deepest negative reading of the entire 2026 cycle. The six-session histogram trajectory tells the momentum story: −3,286 → −4,747 → −5,280 → −8,369 → −14,504. The MACD line at 37,066 is now accelerating away from the signal at 22,562, meaning the bearish momentum is not just persisting — it is intensifying. RSI signal at 44.34 has crashed below 50, confirming the full bearish regime on all indicators. The Merval has not produced this combination of MACD depth and RSI signal below 50 since the February–March correction that saw an 18% drawdown.
The close at 2,831,849 sits exactly at the cloud bottom (2,831,849) and within 10,000 points of the 50-day SMA (2,821,606) — the confluence the prior report identified as the decision level. A close below the cloud bottom on Friday would push the Merval below the cloud entirely — confirming a medium-term downtrend for the first time since the February–March correction. That correction took the index from the January 28 ATH (3,296,502) to below 2,700,000 — an 18% drawdown. The 200-day SMA at 2,774,124 would become the next major support, and the 2,557,711 lower Bollinger Band the deep target. The soybean harvest, which supported the prior week’s range-holding, could not prevent Thursday’s breakdown.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| S&P Merval Close | 2,831,848.54 | −2.31% (−66,843.20) |
| Session Low (pierced cloud) | 2,830,075.25 | below cloud bottom |
| Cloud bottom / Close | 2,831,849 | exactly on it |
| 50-day SMA | 2,821,606 | 10K pts below close |
| MACD histogram (deepest 2026) | −14,504 | from −8,369 prior |
| RSI (14) / Signal | 57.43 / 44.34 | signal well below 50 |
| Cloud top (resistance) | 2,919,518 | distant |
| 200-day SMA | 2,774,124 | 2.0% below close |
| Lower Bollinger Band | 2,801,575 | 1.1% below close |
| Country risk | ~500 bps | threshold watch |
02 Equities — The Cloud Bottom Test
Merval Argentina today enters Friday’s session on the cloud bottom after the S&P Merval crashed 2.31% on Thursday — the largest single-session decline of the correction and the most violent move since the February–March selloff. This Argentina stock market report covers the session that brought the Merval from the cloud interior to the cloud bottom in 48 hours, producing the fastest intra-cloud traverse of 2026. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Latin American equity markets.
The week’s trajectory has been devastating. Monday: +1.47% (cloud reclaim). Tuesday: +0.29% (Kijun, divergence). Wednesday: −1.41% (cloud re-entry). Thursday: −2.31% (cloud bottom). The Merval went from above the Kijun-sen on Tuesday to the cloud bottom on Thursday — a 108,252-point decline (−3.68%) in two sessions. The session low of 2,830,075 briefly pierced below the cloud bottom and the 50-day SMA before the close recovered to 2,831,849 — suggesting some buying interest exists at the confluence, but not enough to produce a meaningful bounce.
The MACD’s acceleration is the most alarming signal. The histogram’s trajectory (−3,286 → −4,747 → −5,280 → −8,369 → −14,504) shows exponential deepening — the kind of momentum acceleration that characterized the early stages of the February–March correction. In that correction, the MACD deepened until the Merval found the 200-day SMA at ~2,700,000. The current 200-day SMA at 2,774,124 is 2.0% below Thursday’s close. If the cloud bottom breaks, the 200-day is the next major level — and the February–March precedent suggests the MACD does not flatten until it reaches one.
03 The Decision Level
The cloud bottom at 2,831,849 and the 50-day SMA at 2,821,606 form the most important support confluence the Merval has tested since the March recovery bounce. A close above the cloud bottom on Friday would keep the index inside the cloud — a zone of indecision but not a confirmed downtrend. A close below 2,821,606 (the 50-day SMA) would push the Merval below the cloud entirely, confirming the medium-term downtrend and targeting the 200-day SMA at 2,774,124 and the lower Bollinger Band at 2,801,575.
The fundamental bid remains present but overwhelmed. The soybean harvest is in peak season. The BCRA has accumulated ~$3.3 billion in reserves YTD. The IMF’s $1 billion is disbursed. Vaca Muerta production is at record levels. Country risk at ~500 bps is near the market-access threshold. But the 19.8x forward P/E — LatAm’s highest — means the Merval has less valuation cushion than peers. At 2,831,849, the index needs earnings delivery and macro catalysts to justify the multiple. The April CPI (May 14) is the next data test.
04 Technical Analysis — S&P Merval Daily
From the chart: O:2,898,691.74, H:2,904,281.73, L:2,830,075.25, C:2,831,848.54 (−66,843.20, −2.31%). Thursday’s candle is a large bearish bar with virtually no upper wick (the open was near the high) and a close near the session low — the continuation sell pattern. The body covers the entire cloud interior in a single session, which is unusual and indicates capitulation-level selling.
MACD at 37,066 with signal at 22,562 (histogram −14,504) is the deepest negative of 2026. The gap between the MACD and signal lines is widening exponentially. RSI at 57.43 with signal at 44.34 has the signal well below 50. The lower Bollinger Band at 2,801,575 is 1.1% below the close. The 200-day SMA at 2,774,124 is 2.0% below. If the cloud bottom breaks, these are the sequential targets — each representing a progressively deeper correction: −1.1% to the lower BB, −2.0% to the 200-day SMA.
05 Key Levels
| Level | S&P Merval |
| 21-day EMA (distant resistance) | 2,930,903 |
| Cloud top (resistance) | 2,919,518 |
| Kijun-sen (resistance) | 2,876,254 |
| Thursday Close / Cloud bottom | 2,831,849 |
| 50-day SMA | 2,821,606 |
| Lower Bollinger Band | 2,801,575 |
| 200-day SMA | 2,774,124 |
06 Looking Ahead
Friday is the most important session since the February–March correction. A hold above the cloud bottom (2,831,849) and the 50-day SMA (2,821,606) would keep the Merval inside the cloud and produce the potential for a relief bounce toward the Kijun-sen (2,876,254). A close below 2,821,606 would confirm the exit below the cloud — the most severe Ichimoku signal — and target the 200-day SMA at 2,774,124 (−2.0%) and the lower Bollinger Band at 2,801,575 (−1.1%). The February–March precedent: the Merval’s MACD did not flatten until it found the 200-day SMA.
Key dates: May 14 — April INDEC CPI print. Rolling through April–May — peak soybean harvest dollar inflows. BCRA targeting US$10 billion in 2026 reserve purchases. US$19 billion in external debt maturities.
07 Verdict
Thursday was the session that brought the Merval to its most consequential support level since the March recovery. The 2.31% crash — the largest of the correction — hit the cloud bottom / 50-day SMA confluence with the MACD at −14,504 (deepest of 2026) and the RSI signal at 44.34 (well below 50). The sell momentum is accelerating: the histogram has gone from −3,286 to −14,504 in six sessions. The session low briefly pierced below the cloud bottom, suggesting capitulation selling. The structural thesis (soybean harvest, fiscal surplus, Vaca Muerta, RIGI, IMF backstop) remains — but the technicals are the most damaged since the 18% February–March correction.
Bias: Strongly bearish — cloud bottom is the last line. The 2,831,849 (cloud bottom) and 2,821,606 (50-day SMA) are the make-or-break confluence. A hold and bounce on Friday is the only constructive outcome remaining. A break below 2,821,606 confirms the exit below the cloud and targets 2,801,575 (lower BB) and 2,774,124 (200-day SMA). The MACD’s trajectory mirrors the early stages of the February–March correction. The soybean harvest provides the only fundamental floor. Friday is binary: hold the cloud bottom, or the medium-term downtrend is confirmed.
Related coverage:
Previous Merval report: Merval Falls 1.41% Into Cloud as MACD Wins
Cloud breakdown: Merval Enters Cloud for First Time in 2026 Rally
Economy guide: Argentina Economy 2026: Complete Investor Guide
Regional markets: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Complete Guide
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published by The Rio Times.