Latin American Pulse for Saturday, April 25, 2026

Peru F-16 Crisis: Chancellor and Defence Minister Resign, US Ambassador Threatens Reprisals, MEF Pays $462M Anyway — Brazil Expands Minha Casa Minha Vida to R$600,000, Middle Class Enters Housing Programme — Argentina: Milei Bans All 60 Journalists from Casa Rosada, Hosts Peter Thiel Same Day, Approval Crashes to 14th of 18 LATAM Leaders — Peru ONPE at 94.79%: JNE Recounts Observed Actas Publicly for First Time — Petro Meets Delcy Rodríguez in Caracas — IPSA Surges +1.65%, IPC Mexico +0.87%, Real Back Below R$5.00, Ibovespa −0.33%, COLCAP −0.86%

Peru F-16 Crisis: Two Ministers Resign, US Ambassador Threatens Reprisals

Wed Apr 22: President Balcázar froze $3.5B contract for 24 F-16 Block 70 jets (Lockheed Martin); contracts signed Mon Apr 20 at Las Palmas Air Base — Balcázar claimed publicly they were not signed; Defence Min Carlos Díaz resigned: “discrepancy on strategic national security”; Chancellor Hugo de Zela resigned: “he lied to the country — the contracts were signed Monday”; US Ambassador Navarro: “if you negotiate in bad faith, I will use all tools available”; MEF paid $462M first tranche Wed to avoid penalties; deal includes 12 jets Phase 1 ($2B), 12 Phase 2 ($1.5B), Boeing KC-135R tanker (free), drone coproduction, SEMAN certification; delivery 2029-2030; new Defence Min Amadeo Flores Carcagno named; Navarro met PCM chief Arroyo at Palacio; US Embassy: “technical signing took place April 20 with full knowledge of highest levels”

What Happened

• —The collapse: Peru’s $3.5 billion F-16 Block 70 acquisition — the largest military procurement in the region in a decade — exploded into a full cabinet crisis on Wednesday. President Balcázar publicly declared the contracts had not been signed and ordered the purchase postponed until the next government takes office in July. Both the defence minister and the chancellor immediately resigned, accusing the interim president of lying: the contracts had been signed on Monday April 20 at Las Palmas Air Base in a classified ceremony, and Balcázar himself had signed the enabling decree. Defence Minister Carlos Díaz called the reversal a threat to national security; Chancellor Hugo de Zela told RPP that the president’s deception “destroys the country’s credibility” and “makes it impossible for the foreign minister to do his job.” The deal encompassed Phase 1 (12 jets for $2 billion, funded through sovereign bonds approved in December) and Phase 2 (12 additional jets for $1.5 billion), plus a free Boeing KC-135R Stratotanker, drone coproduction technology transfer, and SEMAN Peru certification for F-16 and KC-130 maintenance.
• —The US response: Ambassador Bernie Navarro issued the most explicit threat from a US envoy to a LATAM government in the Trump era: “If you negotiate in bad faith with the United States and undermine American interests, be certain that as the representative of the Trump administration I will use all tools available to protect and promote the prosperity and security of our country and the region.” The US Embassy released a statement confirming a “technical signing took place on April 20, 2026, with full knowledge of the highest levels of the Peruvian government.” Navarro then traveled to the PCM to meet Chief of Staff Luis Arroyo. The MEF — caught between a presidential order to freeze and a contractual obligation to pay — ultimately transferred $462 million to Lockheed Martin on Wednesday, stating that “fulfilling the State’s commitments is not an option, but an obligation.” The Atlantic Council’s Martín Cassinelli framed the broader damage: “The problem is not the specific decision — it’s the weakening of the presidential institution after eight presidents in ten years.”

RISK: CRITICAL

Brazil: Minha Casa Minha Vida Expands to R$600K — Middle Class Enters

Operational since Apr 22: Caixa + Banco do Brasil now financing properties up to R$600,000 for families earning up to R$13,000/month; Faixa 3 raised to R$400K; new Faixa 4 covers R$600K ceiling; funded by R$15B Pré-Sal Social Fund + FGTS + bank savings; Lula target: 2M housing units across 4-year mandate; listed homebuilders MRV, Cury, Direcional, Plano&Plano benefit from new addressable market; construction stocks positive since FGTS Council approval Apr 2025; transforms programme from low-income subsidy into structured middle-class mortgage channel

What Happened

• —As we reported this week, Brazil’s flagship housing programme underwent its most significant expansion since creation. The new rules — operational since April 22 — raise the property ceiling to R$600,000 and extend eligibility to families earning up to R$13,000 per month, creating a new Faixa 4 tier that transforms Minha Casa Minha Vida from a low-income welfare scheme into a comprehensive middle-class mortgage instrument. Caixa Econômica Federal and Banco do Brasil are now financing across all four tiers, funded by a R$15 billion allocation from the Pré-Sal Social Fund alongside FGTS resources and bank-raised savings. The Lula government’s target is two million housing units across the four-year mandate. For the construction sector, the update is materially significant: listed homebuilders MRV, Cury, Direcional, and Plano&Plano derive a substantial share of revenue from programme-eligible units. The Faixa 4 expansion opens an entirely new addressable market in the metropolitan rings of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, and the Northeast capitals — segments that previously relied on the more expensive SBPE channel. The timing — just days before the April 28–29 Copom decision — positions the housing expansion as a fiscal-stimulus counterweight to the monetary tightening that has depressed consumer purchasing power.

OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Argentina: Press Ban, Thiel Visit, Approval Crash — A Week of Fractures

Thu Apr 23: Milei banned all 60 journalists from Casa Rosada — fingerprints disabled, sala de prensa closed; “basuras repugnantes” on X; Casa Militar criminal complaint vs TN journalists (arts 222-223, 1-6 years); hours later hosted Peter Thiel (Palantir) at 14:00 — 3rd encounter; Thiel in Argentina 1+ week, met Santiago Caputo, attended Superclásico; CB Global Data Apr: Milei 14th/18 LATAM leaders, 36.2% positive, 59.7% negative, −6.1pp in one month; Giacobbe: 31.3% say most corrupt since 1983; Ley Hojarasca dictamen (35 votes) but floor vote delayed to after Adorni Apr 29; MERVAL: −2.31% Thu, +0.32% Fri (stabilising); Fernando Mendoza drafted #1 overall NFL by Raiders

What Happened

• —The press ban: As we reported, the Milei government disabled fingerprint access for all 60 accredited correspondents at Casa Rosada on Thursday morning, closing the presidential press room in a measure journalists described as unprecedented — the sala de prensa remained open even during the 1976–1983 dictatorship. Milei called the press corps “basuras repugnantes” on X. Casa Militar filed criminal charges against two TN journalists under Penal Code articles 222–223 (revelation of state secrets, 1–6 years). The ban was framed as a “preventive measure for illegal espionage” after TN aired footage from corridors filmed with hidden camera glasses. International press freedom organisations condemned the action.
• —Thiel and the optics: Hours after banning journalists for “espionage,” Milei hosted Peter Thiel — co-founder of Palantir Technologies, the CIA-backed surveillance and data-analytics company — in the presidential office. The juxtaposition dominated Argentine media. Thiel had been in Argentina for over a week on a largely private agenda that included meeting presidential adviser Santiago Caputo and attending the River-Boca Superclásico.
• —The numbers: CB Global Data’s April ranking placed Milei 14th of 18 LATAM leaders — positive image 36.2%, negative 59.7%, a gap of 23.5 points and a 6.1pp collapse in a single month. Giacobbe & Asociados found 31.3% of Argentines identify his government as the most corrupt since 1983. The Ley Hojarasca obtained its dictamen with 35 signatures but the floor vote was delayed until after Adorni’s April 29 congressional report. The MERVAL crashed 2.31% on Thursday before stabilising with a 0.32% gain on Friday. On a lighter note, Fernando Mendoza became the first Argentine drafted #1 overall in the NFL, selected by the Las Vegas Raiders.

RISK: CRITICAL

Peru ONPE at 94.79% — JNE Recounts Observed Actas for First Time

87,937 actas contabilizadas; 4,829 sent to JEE; JNE conducting virtual public hearings — first time in its history; personeros, observers, Ministerio Público participating; Corvetto replaced by Pachas Serrano; criminal proceedings underway; Sánchez leads López Aliaga by ~14,785; Jun 7 segunda vuelta confirmed; Keiko 17.05% first place secured

What Happened

• —Peru’s electoral process advanced to 94.79% of actas counted — 87,937 processed with 4,829 sent to JEE for individual resolution. In an unprecedented move, the JNE is conducting virtual public hearings to recount the observed actas, with personeros from all parties, international observers, and Ministerio Público representatives participating in real time. The transparency initiative — a direct response to the April 12 logistical failures that forced Corvetto’s resignation — aims to rebuild institutional credibility at the most sensitive stage of the count. Sánchez maintains a lead of approximately 14,785 votes over López Aliaga for the second-place slot. The June 7 segunda vuelta between Keiko Fujimori and the second-place finisher is confirmed. The F-16 crisis (Section 1) adds a separate dimension of institutional fragility: Peru now faces simultaneous cabinet collapse, electoral uncertainty, and a bilateral rupture with Washington — all under an interim president without democratic legitimacy. For full context, see our previous Pulse coverage of the Corvetto resignation and JNE timeline.

RISK: ELEVATED

Colombia: Petro Meets Delcy Rodríguez in Caracas

Thu Apr 24: President Gustavo Petro traveled to Caracas for bilateral summit with Venezuela’s interim president Delcy Rodríguez; first Petro-Delcy meeting since Maduro’s capture in January; agenda includes: border trade normalisation, energy cooperation, migration (1.8M+ Venezuelans in Colombia), Catatumbo armed conflict (ELN/FARC disidencias clashing), Ecopetrol cross-border operations; Petro-Noboa Ecuador crisis (100% tariffs) remains unresolved; May 25 Colombian first round approaching; Angie Rodríguez “criminal network” scandal still dominating domestic politics

What Happened

• —President Gustavo Petro traveled to Caracas on Thursday for the first bilateral summit with Venezuela’s interim president Delcy Rodríguez since Maduro’s capture by US forces in January 2026. The meeting — reported by Semana, El Espectador, and Diario Primicia — covers the full spectrum of bilateral issues: border trade normalisation (the Cúcuta-San Antonio and Maicao-Maracaibo corridors), energy cooperation (Venezuela’s PDVSA at 1.1M bpd, Ecopetrol’s cross-border operations), the status of 1.8+ million Venezuelan migrants in Colombia, and the Catatumbo armed conflict where ELN and FARC dissident forces continue clashing. The summit arrives simultaneously with the US new chargé d’affaires Oliver Blanco’s arrival in Caracas — signalling that Washington’s engagement with the post-Maduro government is deepening through parallel diplomatic channels. Separately, a New York Times investigation revealed that a US soldier used classified military intelligence to place a bet on the timing of Maduro’s capture — a gambling scandal that underscores the operational chaos surrounding the January operation. For Petro, the Caracas visit provides a foreign-policy counterweight to two domestic crises: the Angie Rodríguez “criminal network” scandal and the approaching May 25 first-round election in which his Pacto Histórico candidate faces Paloma Valencia’s centre-right coalition.

OUTLOOK: WATCH

Markets: IPSA Surges +1.65%, IPC +0.87%, Real Below R$5.00 — Bounce Day

Fri Apr 24: IBOV 190,745.02 (−633.41, −0.33%) — 3rd drop but smallest, stabilising at 190K; L189,962; USD/BRL 4.9793 (−0.0452, −0.90%) — BACK BELOW R$5.00, real strengthens; RSI 33–37; IPC Mexico 69,230.56 (+599.40, +0.87%) — rebounds; IPSA Chile 11,173.51 (+181.42, +1.65%) — biggest gain in weeks, snaps 4-day streak; MERVAL 2,840,787.49 (+8,938.95, +0.32%) — stabilises after Thu −2.31% crash; COLCAP 2,232.90 (−19.37, −0.86%) — still falling, RSI 41 oversold; BTC 77,592 (+126, +0.16%); Copom Mon-Tue Apr 28-29

What Happened

• —After a week of relentless selling, LATAM markets staged a partial bounce on Friday. Chile’s IPSA surged 1.65% to 11,173 — snapping a four-day losing streak and posting its biggest daily gain in weeks — as the indefinite ceasefire extension reduced the immediate tail risk for oil importers. Mexico’s IPC rebounded 0.87% to 69,230 after three sessions of security-crisis-driven selling. The real strengthened back below R$5.00 to R$4.9793, a 0.90% gain that reversed Thursday’s breach of the psychological barrier. The Ibovespa fell 0.33% to 190,745 — its third consecutive decline but the smallest, suggesting a stabilisation zone near 190K ahead of Monday’s Copom decision. The MERVAL recovered 0.32% after Thursday’s 2.31% crash. The week’s outlier was the COLCAP, which fell another 0.86% to 2,232 with RSI at 41 — now the most oversold major LATAM index, as the 200-day SMA breakdown and MACD bearish cross continue to weigh. Bitcoin held at $77,592. The week ahead is dominated by two central bank decisions: Copom (Apr 28–29, Selic 14.75%) and ECB (Apr 29–30).

Regional Snapshot

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