Latin American Pulse for Saturday, May 9, 2026

Argentina Súper RIGI Announced — Caputo: 15% Corporate Tax, 60% Year-One Depreciation, Zero Export Tariffs, US$140B Pipeline + Chevron US$10B Vaca Muerta — Bill to Congress Monday May 11 — US-Iran Fire Exchange in Hormuz: CENTCOM Says Iran Attacked 3 Destroyers, US Strikes Qeshm + Bandar Abbas, Iran Says “Crossed Point of No Return,” Trump: “Just a Love Tap,” Brent $101.26 — Lula-Trump 30-Day Tariff Working Group Outcome: Beef-Fillet Lunch, US-Brazil Joint Financial-Asphyxiation Track, No Memorandum on Critical Minerals, No Cuba Invasion — Costa Rica: Fernández Sworn In as 50th President, Second Woman, Chaves Becomes Minister of Presidency + Finance — Bolivia: COB Declares Indefinite General Strike at 00:00 Friday, Túpac Katari + CSUTCB Demand “Immediate Resignation of Rodrigo Paz,” 18 Blockades in La Paz + Beni, Cochabamba Meeting Saturday — Peru: López Aliaga Refuses to Recognise Runoff Result, Calls “March of the Four Quarters” Today 17:00 — Neoenergia/Iberdrola R$47B Capex Largest in Brazilian History — Mexico CPI 4.45%/Core 4.26% Validates Banxico Cut — Brazil March Industrial Production +4.3% YoY — Colombia: Cepeda Pivots Constituent Assembly to “National Agreement”

Súper RIGI: Caputo Cuts Corporate Tax to 15%, Targets US$140B Pipeline, Chevron US$10B Vaca Muerta Comes Next

Vie May 8 conferencia Casa Rosada: Caputo + Adorni + Min Seguridad Monteoliva — Súper RIGI vs RIGI actual: Ganancias 25%→15%; amortización acelerada 60% año 1, 20% año 2, 20% año 3 (vs RIGI 40% en 2 primeros años); cero aranceles a la exportación desde día uno (vs RIGI 3 años, o 2 años exportaciones estratégicas); cero aranceles a la importación de TODOS los insumos (vs RIGI solo bienes de capital con “zonas grises” interpretativas); provincias adheridas: Ingresos Brutos cap 0.5%; municipios prohibidos cobrar tasas sobre ventas; “blindaje contra impuestos locales”; sectores: cobre refinamiento + laminado, baterías litio, autos eléctricos, paneles solares, turbinas eólicas, fertilizantes K+P, uranio, datacenters, agro-forestación, pesca; Caputo: “Argentina será una potencia minera”; “estamos hablando de inversión de USD 20 mil o USD 30 mil millones por proyecto”; “en próximas semanas pedidos de inversión van a acercarse a USD 140.000 millones”; “vamos a estar cobrando impuestos que hoy no se cobran porque estas industrias hoy no existen en el país”; Adorni: Chevron Vaca Muerta US$10B “muy pronto se sumará”; Mercedes-Benz Zárate plant inaugurada misma mañana = US$110M, 2,500 empleos, primera planta automotriz nueva desde cero en 15 años; proyecto a Congreso lunes May 11; RIGI actual pipeline: 36 proyectos = US$95B en hidrocarburos+minería

What Happened

• —The regime: Economy Minister Luis Caputo unveiled the Súper RIGI on Friday May 8 in a Casa Rosada press conference alongside Chief of Staff Manuel Adorni and Security Minister Alejandra Monteoliva. The new regime cuts the corporate income tax rate from the 25% set under the existing RIGI to 15%, and reshapes the depreciation schedule with 60% deductible in the first year and 20% in each of the second and third years — a significantly accelerated profile compared to the existing RIGI’s 40% over the first two years. Export tariffs are eliminated from day one of operations, against three years (or two for strategic long-cycle exports) under the original RIGI. Import tariffs on all production-related inputs are eliminated — closing the interpretive grey zones that the existing RIGI’s capital-goods-only exemption created. Adhering provinces face a 0.5% cap on the gross-receipts tax (Ingresos Brutos), and municipalities are prohibited from levying taxes on sales — a constitutional-level shield against local fiscal pressure that Caputo emphasised would make Argentina internationally competitive for the first time in decades.
• —The targets: The Súper RIGI is built around sectors that “today do not exist in Argentina” per Caputo: copper refining and laminating (“an industry in a boom phase, driven by electrification and artificial intelligence”), lithium-battery production, electric vehicle manufacturing, solar panels, wind turbines, potassium and phosphorus fertilisers, the uranium value chain, datacenters, and verticals in fishing, agriculture, and forestry. Argentina will be a mining power in a few years, Caputo said, framing the regime as a structural transformation of the productive matrix rather than a short-cycle stimulus. He told reporters that investment requests under this regime will probably approach US$140 billion in the coming weeks and that a single project under the Súper RIGI could be US$20 to US$30 billion in scale. The government will not lose fiscal revenue, in Caputo’s framing, because we will be collecting taxes that today are not collected, because these industries do not exist in the country. Background: Cavallo-Milei FX feud.
• —Chevron, Mercedes-Benz, and the path to Congress: Adorni opened the press conference by announcing the inauguration that morning of the Mercedes-Benz industrial centre in Zárate — a US$110 million investment generating 2,500 jobs and the first automotive plant built from scratch in Argentina in 15 years. He confirmed that a Chevron Vaca Muerta project worth another US$10 billion would shortly join the existing RIGI pipeline of 36 projects worth US$95 billion. The Súper RIGI text is being finalised over the weekend and will be sent to Congress on Monday May 11. The minimum investment threshold has not yet been disclosed but will be set before the bill enters parliament. Caputo defended the lower-tax / higher-revenue logic: While we will be charging less tax per productive unit, we will be charging taxes that today do not exist because these industries do not exist in the country. This puts Argentina at the top of the list to decide where investment goes, he closed.

OUTLOOK: BULLISH

US-Iran Fire Exchange in Hormuz: 3 Destroyers Attacked, US Strikes Qeshm + Bandar Abbas, Brent $101

Late Thu May 7 → Vie May 8: CENTCOM dijo 3 US Navy guided-missile destroyers (incl. USS Mason) bajo ataque Iranian missiles + drones + small boats transitando Hormuz; Pentagon: todas amenazas destruidas, ningún buque dañado; “self-defense strikes” contra Iranian Qeshm Port + Bandar Abbas (Khamir, Sirik también); Iran’s Khatam Al-Anbiya HQ: US targeted Iranian oil tanker + vessel cerca strait, “ataque simultáneo” sobre “civilian areas con cooperación regional”; Iran FM Araghchi: “every time diplomatic solution on table, US opts for reckless military adventure”; Iran Foreign Ministry: US actions “clear violation April 8 ceasefire understanding” + “flagrant breach Article 2(4) UN Charter” + “acts of aggression”; “crossed point of no return”; Trump a ABC News: strikes were “just a love tap”, ceasefire “still in effect”; Trump Truth Social: “We’ll knock them out a lot harder, and a lot more violently, in the future, if they don’t get their Deal signed, FAST!”; Brent intraday $96.10 → $103.70 → close $100.06 Thu (−1.19%), $101.26 Fri (+1.20%); WTI $94.81 Thu close, $95.64 Fri close (+0.88%); Fitch raised 2026 Brent $87 (de $70), 2027 $65 (de $63); Hormuz reopening assumed July, ~5 month closure (vs 1-2 months prior estimates); Iran 14-point peace proposal todavía bajo revisión; 48hr response window expired Friday — Rubio: “respuesta esperada hoy, nada recibido”

What Happened

• —The exchange: Late Thursday May 7 into Friday May 8, US Central Command said three US Navy guided-missile destroyers including the USS Mason came under attack from Iranian missiles, drones, and small assault boats while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The Pentagon said all incoming threats were destroyed and that no US vessel was damaged. The US then conducted self-defence strikes against Iran’s Qeshm Port and Bandar Abbas, with simultaneous strikes also reported at Khamir and Sirik. Iran’s Khatam Al-Anbiya central military command claimed the US targeted an Iranian oil tanker and another vessel near the strait, prompting Iranian return fire on US warships. Iran said the strikes hit civilian areas with cooperation of some regional countries. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted: Every time a diplomatic solution is on the table, the US opts for a reckless military adventure. The Iranian Foreign Ministry said the US action constitutes a clear violation of the April 8 ceasefire understanding, a flagrant breach of Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, and amounts to an act of aggression. Tehran said the US has crossed the point of no return.
• —Trump’s posture: Trump told ABC News the strikes were just a love tap and that the ceasefire is still in effect. He then posted on Truth Social: We’ll knock them out a lot harder, and a lot more violently, in the future, if they don’t get their Deal signed, FAST! The 14-point peace proposal Iran has been reviewing remains under consideration with no formal response delivered. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters Friday that a response from Tehran was expected and that nothing had been received yet. The 48-hour response window cited in earlier US framing expired during Friday’s session.
• —The price reaction: Brent crude fell intraday Thursday to US$96.10 on early deal optimism, then bounced to a session high of US$103.70 after the Qeshm strikes were reported, closing at US$100.06 (−1.19%) per CNBC. Brent rose 1.20% Friday to US$101.26 per Investing.com. WTI closed US$94.81 Thursday and US$95.64 Friday (+0.88%). Fitch Ratings on Friday raised its Brent forecast for 2026 to US$87 from US$70, lifted 2027 to US$65 from US$63, and lengthened the assumed Hormuz closure window from one-to-two months to five months — assuming reopening around July. Fitch noted that pre-war, 15 million barrels per day of crude and 5 mmboe/day of products transited Hormuz, accounting for 20% of global oil consumption. The combined episode confirms the Iran-deal trade as binary into the next 72 hours: a deal collapse takes Brent back to US$115+; a quiet Iran response keeps the US$95-105 range.

RISK: CRITICAL

Lula-Trump 30-Day Tariff Working Group: Joint Anti-Crime Track, No Mineral MoU, No Cuba Plan

Thu May 7 White House: Lula-Trump 3hr meeting + working bilateral + beef-fillet lunch — ambos equipos económicos ordenados a constituir grupo trabajo US-BR con plazo 30 días para tratar estructura tarifaria; Lula “very, very satisfied” + “important step in consolidating Brazil-United States relationship”; Trump Truth Social: “very dynamic president of Brazil”, “very well”; Lula al Brazilian embassy + regreso Brasília Vie May 8 madrugada; Brazil anuncia plan integral contra criminal organizations próxima semana + US-BR joint financial-asphyxiation track confirmed con Trump; Min Fazenda Durigan: equipos Receita Federal + US counterparts conducirán operaciones conjuntas contra arms + synthetic-drug trafficking en ambas direcciones; PCC + CV foreign terrorist designation tracking — Lei Antifacção pushback liderado por PF director Andrei Rodrigues; sin MoU minerales críticos (oficiales Lula a Reuters: no acuerdo MoU básico); Brasil Cámara aprobó May 6 Política Nacional Minerales Críticos+Estratégicos PNMCE; Trump le dijo a Lula sin planes invasión Cuba; Lula entregó a Trump lista de oficiales brasileños + familiares bajo restricciones de visa US incluido STF justices + Procurador General Paulo Gonet + hija 10 años Min Salud Padilha; Lula ofreció “share Brazil’s mineral wealth con quien quiera invertir” — 21M ton tierras raras (24.7% global), 94% niobio; Lula presionó UN Security Council reform; Section 301 (Pix, ethanol, deforestación) plazo final julio 2026 sigue vigente; tensiones digitales — Brasil bloqueó renewal moratoria WTO e-commerce tariff; Lula pidió no press conference antes para reunirse primero con Trump; tariffs 50% mid-2025 ya aliviados a 10% global con product exclusions tras febrero ruling SCOTUS

What Happened

• —The 30-day frame: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and President Donald Trump met for more than three hours at the White House on Thursday May 7 — a working bilateral followed by a beef-fillet lunch — and ordered both economic teams to set up a US-Brazil working group with a 30-day deadline to discuss the tariff structure. Brazilian officials told Reuters the working group framework bought them some time on the tariff issue. The 50% tariff package Trump imposed in mid-2025 has already been substantially loosened to a 10% global rate with product exclusions following the US Supreme Court’s February ruling against the IEEPA basis. The 30-day Brazil-US dialogue runs against the Section 301 final-report deadline in July 2026, which remains the next consequential trade event. Lula returned to Brasília Friday morning. Coverage: Lula and Trump set 30-day deadline to resolve Brazil tariff dispute.
• —Joint anti-crime track: Brazil announced that next week it will launch a comprehensive plan against transnational criminal organisations and confirmed a US-Brazil joint financial-asphyxiation track agreed directly with Trump. Finance Minister Dario Durigan said Brazil’s federal tax authority and US counterparts will conduct joint operations against arms and synthetic-drug trafficking flowing in both directions — the most concrete deliverable of the visit. The PCC/CV foreign-terrorist-organisation designation question remains contested, with the Federal Police director leading the technical pushback against the US designation track, citing the 20-40 year sentencing framework Brazil enacted in March under the Anti-Faction Law. Critical minerals were on the agenda after the Brazilian lower house approved the National Critical and Strategic Minerals Policy on May 6, but no memorandum of understanding was reached — sources close to Lula told Reuters the two sides could not agree on even a basic framework. Lula nonetheless told reporters Brazil is “willing to share its mineral wealth with whoever wants to invest in the country.” Brazil holds an estimated 21 million tonnes of rare earths (24.7% of global) and 94% of niobium reserves, with only 35% of national territory geologically mapped.
• —The visa list, the Cuba clarification, and what remains: Lula handed Trump a list of Brazilian officials and family members still under US visa restrictions imposed during the post-January 8 retaliation cycle — including Supreme Court justices, Prosecutor-General Paulo Gonet, and the 10-year-old daughter of Health Minister Alexandre Padilha. Lula said part of the suspensions had already been reversed and pledged to keep raising the remaining cases. On Cuba, Lula said Trump told him directly there are “no plans” for a US invasion. Lula also pushed UN Security Council reform and reiterated Brazil’s interest in a permanent seat. Tensions remain over digital trade after Brazil blocked the US-backed renewal of a WTO e-commerce tariff moratorium, and over high Brazilian ethanol tariffs. Lula said he had asked the US side not to hold the previously scheduled Oval Office press appearance because he wanted to meet with Trump first. Background: Lula lands in Washington on Pix, rare earths, PCC.

OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Costa Rica: Fernández Sworn In as 50th President, Chaves Becomes Min Presidencia + Hacienda

Vie May 8 11:00 Estadio Nacional San José: Laura Fernández Delgado (39 años) jurada presidenta #50 historia Costa Rica + segunda mujer (después Laura Chinchilla 2010); ceremonia adelantada de 13:00 a 11:00 por lluvias previstas; 71 delegaciones internacionales: rey Felipe VI España, Mulino Panamá, Noboa Ecuador; presidenta Asamblea Yara Jiménez retiró banda a Chaves y la impuso a Fernández; Chaves entregó mando + asumió INMEDIATAMENTE Min Presidencia + Min Hacienda — arreglo sin precedente democrático CR, preserva inmunidad hasta 2030, concentra coordinación política/económica en figura saliente; 22 de 39 carryover Chaves; Manuel Tovar COMEX→Cancillería; Indiana Trejos → COMEX titular; VP Douglas Soto = simultáneamente embajador Washington (Fernández: “momento clave relación con EEUU”); Roger Madrigal continúa BCCR hasta 2027; Karla Montero Recope, Mónica Taylor CCSS, Gabriela Chacón INS continúan; nuevos: Alexander Sánchez (Salud, ex-CCSS gerente médico), Roy Thompson (Trabajo), Milagro Solórzano (Economía), Carolina Delgado (INAMU, ex-PLN); 2do VP Francisco Gamboa coordina asuntos económicos; Fernández discurso: “No me temblará el pulso para enfrentar el crimen organizado”; “Sería mezquino abandonar el camino de bienestar construido por don Rodrigo”; anunció nuevo Ministerio de Costa, Mares y Pesca; mayoría legislativa Pueblo Soberano; concierto “Costa Rica Canta” 14 artistas cierre; ceremonia presidida sacerdote Sergio Valverde; Pueblo Soberano CR ganó >48% febrero 2026 elección

What Happened

• —The investiture: Laura Fernández Delgado, 39 years old, was sworn in Friday May 8 as Costa Rica’s 50th president and the second woman in history to hold the office, following Laura Chinchilla in 2010. The ceremony at the National Stadium in La Sabana, San José, was advanced from 13:00 to 11:00 to avoid the afternoon rains and brought delegations from 71 countries including King Felipe VI of Spain, Panama’s José Raúl Mulino, and Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa. Congress president Yara Jiménez removed the presidential sash from Rodrigo Chaves and placed it on Fernández. The Pueblo Soberano party holds the legislative majority following the February 2026 elections, in which Fernández won with more than 48% of the vote. The investiture closed with the “Costa Rica Sings” concert featuring 14 artists.
• —The Chaves super-ministry: Outgoing President Chaves was simultaneously sworn in as Minister of the Presidency and Minister of Finance — a doubling of cabinet portfolios unprecedented in Costa Rican democratic history that preserves Chaves’s immunity through 2030 and concentrates economic and political coordination in the figure that just left the presidency. Twenty-two of thirty-nine cabinet posts carry over from the Chaves administration. Manuel Tovar moves from the trade ministry (Comex) to the foreign ministry; deputy minister Indiana Trejos rises to lead Comex. Vice President Douglas Soto will simultaneously serve as Costa Rica’s ambassador in Washington — Fernández framed this as “a moment in which the relationship with the United States is key.” Carry-overs include Roger Madrigal at the central bank (mandate runs through 2027), Karla Montero at the state oil refiner Recope, Mónica Taylor at the social security fund (CCSS), and Gabriela Chacón at the state insurer (INS). New ministers include Alexander Sánchez (Health, formerly the medical lead at the social security fund), Roy Thompson (Labour), Milagro Solórzano (Economy), and Carolina Delgado (women’s institute INAMU, formerly with the centrist National Liberation party). Second VP Francisco Gamboa coordinates economic affairs. Fernández in her first address: “It would be petty to abandon the path of well-being built by Don Rodrigo.” On security: “My pulse will not tremble in the face of organised crime.” She announced a new Ministry of Coast, Seas and Fisheries.

OUTLOOK: WATCH

Bolivia: COB Indefinite General Strike, Túpac Katari + CSUTCB Demand Paz’s Immediate Resignation, Cochabamba Meeting Today

Vie May 8 00:00: COB declaró paro general indefinido — coordinado con Csutcb + Federación Departamental Túpac Katari + Federación Juntas Vecinales La Paz; ABC reportó 15-18 puntos bloqueo activos La Paz + Beni (resto del país fluyendo); demanda unificadora: “renuncia inmediata de Rodrigo Paz” — “Hasta que se vaya Rodrigo Paz. No hay segunda alternativa. El Presidente no ha cumplido, nos ha engañado y no ha escuchado las demandas del pueblo” (comunicado COB); COB Mario Argollo: bases demandan renuncia, no él; Vicente Salazar (Túpac Katari ejecutivo): “la población ya está cansada, ya no quiere promesas, porque hemos tenido varios diálogos, solamente es promesa, promesa, promesa”; Salazar rechazó acuerdo Csutcb-Gobierno: “Pando y Beni le han desconocido, La Paz le ha desconocido, Cochabamba y Tarija le han desconocido, ya no es representante legítimo”; bloqueos estratégicos: Patacamaya, Villa Remedios, Cruce Luribay, Santiago de Machaca, tramo Viacha, Caranavi, Santa Bárbara (La Paz); Río Colorado, Nuevo Horizonte, puente Yucumo, San Ignacio (Beni); choferes confederation LIFTED measures tras acuerdo con Min Zamora — Lucio Gómez firmó Casa Grande del Pueblo; CSUTCB acuerdo: gobierno se compromete impulsar abrogación Ley 1720 ante Asamblea (tratada Cámara Diputados viernes tarde); magisterio paro May 11; Min Economía Espinoza: “bloqueos empañan confianza internacional” tras sobresuscripción bonos; Paz convoca encuentro nacional Cochabamba sábado May 9 (HOY) con líderes políticos, sociales, alcaldes, gobernadores; Paz cumple 6 meses gestión May 8; COB no reconoce Min Trabajo Edgar Morales — “cierra puertas salida concertada corto plazo”; FBF suspendió partido Nacional Potosí-Aurora por bloqueos; partido reprogramado 10 junio

What Happened

• —The strike: The Central Obrera Boliviana (Bolivia’s main labour federation, COB) declared an indefinite general strike at 00:00 Friday May 8, coordinated with the CSUTCB Túpac Katari peasant federation, the La Paz neighbourhood-association federation, and various sector unions. The state highway agency (ABC) reported 15 to 18 active blockades concentrated entirely in La Paz and Beni — strategic corridors at Patacamaya, Villa Remedios, Cruce Luribay, Santiago de Machaca, Viacha, Caranavi, and Santa Bárbara in La Paz, and Río Colorado, Nuevo Horizonte, the Yucumo bridge, and San Ignacio in Beni. The truckers’ confederation lifted its measures earlier in the week after a deal with the Public Works Minister at the government palace, and the CSUTCB negotiated an executive commitment to push the repeal of Law 1720 to the legislature (debated in the lower house Friday evening) — but those agreements have not absorbed the broader strike. Background: Bolivia blockades, Túpac Katari, and the Paz fuel crisis.
• —The demand: The unifying demand of the strike is the immediate resignation of President Rodrigo Paz. The COB’s official communiqué reads, in translation: “Until Rodrigo Paz leaves. There is no second option. The President has not delivered, has deceived us, and has not listened to the demands of the people.” COB executive Mario Argollo clarified that the demand comes from the rank and file rather than the leadership, citing the loss of purchasing power of salaries, the distribution of degraded fuel, and laws considered unconstitutional — including Law 1720 on the conversion of small to medium property holdings. Túpac Katari executive Vicente Salazar told Radio Fides: “The population is already tired, no longer wants promises, because we have had several dialogues. It’s only promise, promise, promise.” Salazar rejected the CSUTCB agreement with the government, saying Pando, Beni, La Paz city, Cochabamba, and Tarija have all “disowned” the CSUTCB and that it “is no longer the legitimate representative.”
• —The Cochabamba meeting: President Paz, who completed six months in office on May 8, has convened a national meeting in Cochabamba for Saturday May 9 (today) with political and social leaders, mayors, governors, and sector representatives. The COB has refused dialogue and does not recognise Labour Minister Edgar Morales — closing what Telesur described as “any short-term concerted solution.” The teachers’ federation announces a separate strike for Monday May 11. Economy Minister José Gabriel Espinoza warned the blockades “tarnish the international confidence” Bolivia has built, citing the recent over-subscription of international bonds and reminding that “the right to protest must be respected, but cannot affect the rights of others.” The Bolivian football federation suspended the Nacional Potosí-Aurora fixture after the broadcast operator reported it could not move equipment to Potosí; the match was rescheduled for June 10 after the next FIFA window.

RISK: CRITICAL

Peru: López Aliaga Refuses to Recognise Runoff, Calls “March of the Four Quarters” for Today

Vie May 8: López Aliaga (Renovación Popular) en reunión prensa extranjera Lima — “La segunda vuelta no puede proclamar lo que es un delito contra la voluntad popular, vamos a ir hasta las últimas consecuencias; si es necesario movilizar al pueblo lo haremos”; no reconocerá ni Fujimori ni Sánchez si JNE no acepta exigencia revisar todo proceso; pedirá Tribunal Constitucional declare nulidad parcial/total + acudir organismos internacionales no precisados; convocará “marcha de los Cuatro Suyos” sábado May 9 (HOY) 17:00 — referencia a movilización Lima 26-28 julio 2000 contra tercera reelección Alberto Fujimori; ONPE 98.98% escrutinio: Fujimori 17.16% (2,843,215 votos), Sánchez 12.04% (1,994,505), López Aliaga 11.89% (1,972,943) — gap ~21,562 votos a Sánchez; pidió anular votación mesas serie 900 (zonas remotas Amazonía donde tiene voto residual); abogado Wilmer Medina aceptó “no todas las mesas favorecen a Sánchez”; JNE rechazó por unanimidad solicitudes elecciones complementarias (no contempladas en Ley Orgánica de Elecciones para procesos generales); Renovación Popular legisladores asumirán pero él no — “no puedo ser tan irresponsable de dejar al Perú sin senadores ni diputados”; Fujimori comenzó campaña segunda vuelta y rechazó “insurgencia”; Juntos por el Perú “rechazó maniobras desestabilizadoras y antidemocráticas” — pidió “JNE no alterar calendario electoral y culminar proceso de proclamación”; resultados definitivos esperados quincena mayo per JNE secretaria general Yessica Clavijo; JNE presidente Roberto Burneo bajo presión; ex jefe ONPE Piero Corvetto renunció post-elecciones; Fiscalía investigando irregularidades distribución material electoral; runoff confirmado 7 junio

What Happened

• —Renovación Popular candidate Rafael López Aliaga announced Friday in a press conference with foreign correspondents accredited in Lima that he will not recognise the second-round result whether Keiko Fujimori or Roberto Sánchez wins, unless the National Election Board (JNE) reviews the entire process. “The second round cannot proclaim what is a crime against the popular will. We will go to the last consequences. If necessary, we will mobilise the people,” he said. He will ask the Constitutional Tribunal to declare the process partially or totally null and will appeal to international organisations not yet specified. He will convene a “March of the Four Quarters” — Marcha de los Cuatro Suyos — for Saturday May 9 at 17:00 in Lima, a deliberate reference to the July 26-28, 2000 mobilisation against Alberto Fujimori’s third re-election. With the election authority (ONPE) counting at 98.98%, Fujimori leads with 17.16% (2,843,215 votes), Sánchez has 12.04% (1,994,505), and López Aliaga is third with 11.89% (1,972,943) — about 21,562 votes behind. He requested the annulment of the “series 900” ballot stations (remote Amazonian areas where his vote is residual) — though his lawyer Wilmer Medina conceded “not all stations favour Sánchez.” The JNE rejected complementary-election requests by unanimous vote, noting the figure is not contemplated in the General Election Law. Renovación Popular’s elected senators and deputies will take their seats — “I cannot be so irresponsible as to leave Peru without senators or deputies,” López Aliaga said — but he himself will not. Fujimori began her second-round campaign Friday and rejected calls for “insurgency.” The runoff is confirmed for June 7. Background: Peru runoff: Fujimori-Sánchez at the F16 cap.

RISK: CRITICAL

Neoenergia/Iberdrola Announces R$47B Capex 2026-2030 — Largest Distribution-Grid Investment Cycle in Brazilian History

Vie May 8: Neoenergia (controlled by Iberdrola 84% post-PREVI buyout Sept 2025) anunció R$47B ($9.5B) capex 5-año across 4 distribuidoras Brasil — triggered by 30-year concession contracts moviéndose hacia firma; Coelba Bahía lidera paquete con R$25B ($5.1B) hasta 2030; Cosern Rio Grande do Norte R$4B ($810M); Neoenergia Pernambuco + Neoenergia Brasília account balance same renewal cycle; ciclo 2026-2030 capex 82% sobre R$25.8B desplegado 2021-2025 — largest distribution-grid investment cycle in Brazilian history; Neoenergia sirve >16M clientes cubriendo 40M brasileños; “lock Neoenergia into capital deployment reflejado in BRR (Brazil Regulatory Asset Base) calculations, supporting tariff revenues across 30-year concession horizon”; ejecución riesgo si costos escalan más allá presupuesto; Pernambuco renovación temprana hasta 2060 fue primera Brasil — set precedent; Q1 2026 net profit Neoenergia R$1.2B ($228M) +28% YoY; Iberdrola completó tender offer abril adquiriendo 14.21% capital R$5.8B ($1.1B) at R$32.50/share post-PREVI deal Sept 2025 R$11.5B; mkt cap ~R$39B ($7.2B); Iberdrola sale Mexico US$4.2B reorienta Brasil regulated utilities

What Happened

• —Neoenergia, the Brazilian utility controlled by Spain’s Iberdrola at 84% following the September 2025 PREVI buyout, announced Friday May 8 a R$47 billion (US$9.5 billion) five-year capital-expenditure commitment across four distributors triggered by 30-year concession contracts moving toward signature. Coelba in Bahia leads the package with R$25 billion (US$5.1 billion) through 2030. Cosern in Rio Grande do Norte is committed to R$4 billion (US$810 million). Neoenergia Pernambuco and Neoenergia Brasília account for the balance under the same renewal cycle. The cycle 2026-2030 capex runs 82% above the R$25.8 billion deployed in 2021-2025 and represents the largest distribution-grid investment cycle in Brazilian history. Neoenergia serves more than 16 million customers covering 40 million Brazilians. Pernambuco’s early renewal to 2060 set the Brazilian precedent for the cycle. The R$47 billion commitment locks Neoenergia into capital deployment that will be reflected in Brazil Regulatory Asset Base calculations, supporting tariff revenues across the 30-year concession horizon — though execution risk emerges if costs escalate beyond budget. Iberdrola’s posture follows the company’s strategic pivot from Mexico (US$4.2 billion exit on regulatory uncertainty) into Brazilian regulated utilities under 30-year concession renewals, stable regulations, and inflation-protected revenues. Q1 2026 net profit was R$1.2 billion (US$228 million), up 28% year-on-year. Coverage: Spain’s Iberdrola to invest $9.5 billion in Brazil grid renewal.

OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Mexico: April CPI 4.45% / Core 4.26% Validates Banxico Terminal Cut, Sheinbaum: “Activates Investment”

Vie May 8 INEGI: April CPI headline 4.45% (vs 4.59% marzo, vs consenso 4.50%); MoM 0.20%; core 4.26% (vs 4.45% marzo) — lowest reading meses; categorías que decelaran: alimentos+bebidas no alcohólicas 6.36% vs 6.91%, alcoholic+tabaco 7.97% vs 8.05%, vivienda 3.08% vs 3.13%, salud 5.25% vs 5.43%, restaurantes+hoteles 6.89% vs 7.16%, miscelánea 4.81% vs 5.52%; transporte aceleró: 3.14% vs 2.62% por costos combustibles ligados a Middle East; Sheinbaum: corte Banxico “activa la inversión”; Banxico cortó 25 bp a 6.50% Thu May 7 split-vote — cerró ciclo 14-corte / 450 bp desde marzo 2024 11.25%; “Looking ahead, the Governing Board estimates that it will be appropriate to maintain the reference rate at its current level”; Banxico minutas May 21 (split-vote dissent breakdown); Heath dissent watch; Banorte 18-month hold confirmed; Mexico Q1 GDP −0.8% q/q (mayor caída desde Q4 2024); Sheinbaum mañanera: presentó “Estrategia Nacional Control Drogas EE.UU.” documento — 1ra vez Washington estrategia para prevención; “estamos actuando” + reducción 50% homicidios; nueva embajadora US: Roberto Lazzeri propuesto

What Happened

• —Mexico’s national statistics agency INEGI reported Friday May 8 that headline annual inflation eased to 4.45% in April from 4.59% in March, below the 4.50% consensus. Month-on-month inflation registered 0.20%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell to 4.26% from 4.45% — the lowest reading in months, and the cleanest deceleration print of 2026. Categories that decelerated include food and non-alcoholic beverages 6.36% versus 6.91% prior, alcoholic beverages and tobacco 7.97% versus 8.05%, housing and utilities 3.08% versus 3.13%, health 5.25% versus 5.43%, restaurants and hotels 6.89% versus 7.16%, and miscellaneous goods and services 4.81% versus 5.52%. Transportation prices rose faster at 3.14% versus 2.62% — reflecting the higher fuel costs linked to the Hormuz energy shock. The print validates the Bank of Mexico decision Thursday to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.50% in a split vote and close the 14-cut, 450 basis-point easing cycle that began in March 2024 from an 11.25% peak. Banxico’s statement: “Looking ahead, the Governing Board estimates that it will be appropriate to maintain the reference rate at its current level.” President Claudia Sheinbaum said the cut “activates investment.” Banxico minutes are due May 21. Background: Mexico inflation April 2026 and the Banxico rate cut.

OUTLOOK: WATCH

Brazil March Industrial Production +4.3% YoY Beats, PMI Manufacturing 52.6, Trade Surplus $10.54B

Vie May 8 IBGE: Brazil March industrial production +4.3% YoY (vs 3.5% consenso, vs prior −0.7%) — strongest reading meses; combined con BCB cut + PMI Manufacturing 52.6 expansion + services PMI 52.3 → economía respondiendo a easier monetary conditions más rápido que esperado; trade surplus $10.54B (vs $10.90B est) — moderado pero positivo; FX flows +$3.307B; Vivara Q1 2026 (B3:VIVA3, Latin America’s largest jewellery chain ~400 stores) — resultados Q1; Sabesp Q1 (B3:SBSP3, NYSE:SBS) São Paulo state water/sewage utility privatised by Equatorial Energia July 2024 R$67/share; Rumo Q1 (B3:RAIL3, Cosan rail logistics subsidiary) adjusted net income; Magazine Luiza Q1 (B3:MGLU3, Brazil’s largest domestic e-commerce + physical retail) Q1 result; Tecnoglass Q1 record despite 10% US tariff; “Enter” Latin America’s first AI unicorn at US$1.2B con Founders Fund backing; Argentina industrial production +5.0% YoY March (per INDEC, prior −8.6%) — major reversal; US Court of International Trade ruling 2-1 May 7 — Trump’s 10% global tariff (significant for tariff exposure)

What Happened

• —Brazil’s March industrial production beat consensus at +4.3% YoY (vs 3.5% expected, prior −0.7%) per IBGE — the strongest reading in months. Combined with the Copom cut, the manufacturing PMI crossing into expansion at 52.6, and the services PMI at 52.3, the economy is responding to easier monetary conditions faster than expected. Brazil’s trade surplus came in at $10.54 billion (vs $10.90 billion est), and FX flows remained positive at $3.307 billion. The Q1 earnings layer added beats: Vivara Participações (B3: VIVA3) — Latin America’s largest jewellery chain with approximately 400 stores — released Q1; Sabesp (B3: SBSP3, NYSE: SBS), the São Paulo state water and sewage utility privatised by Equatorial Energia in July 2024 at R$67/share, reported Q1; Rumo (B3: RAIL3), the Cosan rail logistics subsidiary, posted Q1 adjusted net income; Magazine Luiza (B3: MGLU3), Brazil’s largest domestic e-commerce and physical retail platform, reported Q1; Tecnoglass posted record Q1 results despite the 10% US tariff. Enter became Latin America’s first AI unicorn at US$1.2 billion with Founders Fund backing. Argentina’s INDEC reported industrial production surged 5.0% YoY in March (prior −8.6%) — a remarkable reversal that contributes to the Súper RIGI growth narrative. The US Court of International Trade ruled 2-1 on May 7 that President Trump’s 10% global tariff exceeds executive authority — a significant ruling for the tariff-exposure position of every Latin American exporter into the US market.

OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Colombia 22 Days Out: Cepeda Pivots Constituent Assembly to “National Agreement,” Petro Push Splits Field

Vie May 8 — Cepeda recasting Constituyente Petro como “Acuerdo Nacional” — incluiría Centro Democrático: “Puede ser que nos pongamos de acuerdo”; Cepeda: “el amor por el país está por encima de divisiones, heridas y desconfianzas”; Petro promueve constituyente desde San Juan del Cesar (La Guajira) y Medellín — comité promovido por Min Trabajo Antonio Sanguino registrado diciembre 2025, target 2.5M firmas; rechazo unánime otros candidatos: Sergio Fajardo “La Constitución no puede ser un arma de guerra electoral. La haremos respetar, Presidente. No le quepa la menor duda” + “asamblea constituyente es declaración de guerra para Colombia”; Paloma Valencia “Petro está desesperado por plata, ya no ve dónde sacar más” + “Petro cree que problemas Colombia se solucionan con nueva constitución, no señor”; Abelardo De la Espriella “horror que no vamos a tolerar” + “ilegal, nos comprometemos a defender Constitución 1991”; Claudia López a Cepeda: “querido Iván, la gente está presionada para votar por ti y por el Pacto Histórico” + “cínico”; CUT respalda Cepeda; AtlasIntel/Semana May 6: Cepeda 37.4% / De la Espriella 29.4% / Valencia 20.9%; Invamer Apr 26: Cepeda 44.3% / De la Espriella 21.5% / Valencia 19.8%; CNC for Cambio Apr 23-30: Cepeda 37.2% / De la Espriella 20.4% / Valencia 15.6%; T-22 first round May 31; T-43 runoff Jun 21; Petro decertificación antinarcóticos + sanciones Trump familia; 86 US embassy delegates accredited observers under Resolución 2090; Indepaz: 48 masacres + 249 muertes Q1 2026 — pre-electoral count más alto década

What Happened

• —Twenty-two days before Colombia’s May 31 first round, Pacto Histórico candidate Iván Cepeda has begun to recast President Petro’s Constituent Assembly proposal as a “National Agreement” that would explicitly include the right-wing Centro Democrático: “It could be that we reach an agreement.” The reframing answers two political constraints simultaneously — preserving the Petro support base while detoxifying the Constituent brand for centrist and right-leaning voters. Petro himself continues to push the original framework from San Juan del Cesar (La Guajira) and Medellín; the committee promoted by Labour Minister Antonio Sanguino registered with the electoral authority in December 2025 and is collecting signatures with a target of 2.5 million names. Other candidates have rejected the move uniformly. Sergio Fajardo: “The Constitution cannot be a weapon of electoral war. We will make it be respected, Mr. President. Have no doubt” — and called the proposal “a declaration of war for Colombia.” Paloma Valencia: “Petro is desperate for money, he no longer sees where to extract more” and “Petro believes Colombia’s problems are solved with a new constitution. No, sir.” Abelardo De la Espriella called the proposal “a horror we will not tolerate,” declared it “illegal,” and committed to defending the 1991 Constitution. Claudia López to Cepeda: “Dear Iván, people are pressured to vote for you and for Pacto Histórico” — calling him “cynical.” The CUT labour confederation endorsed Cepeda. Polling remains divided: AtlasIntel/Semana May 6 has Cepeda 37.4% / De la Espriella 29.4% / Valencia 20.9%; Invamer April 26 has Cepeda 44.3%; CNC for Cambio April 23-30 has Cepeda 37.2%. Indepaz reports 48 massacres and 249 deaths in Q1 2026 — the highest pre-electoral count in a decade. The electoral authority accredited 86 US embassy delegates as international observers under Resolution 2090, the first time the United States serves directly as electoral observer in a Colombian presidential vote. Background: Colombia 2026 election: Cepeda leads at 44%.

OUTLOOK: WATCH

Markets: Friday Recovery After Hormuz Strikes — Banks Lead Ibovespa, Embraer −6.2% on Q1 Miss

Ibovespa Friday May 8 close at 184,108.30 (+0.49%, +890 points) per Yahoo Finance — banks led the recovery with Itaú +1.5%, Vale +1.2%, WEG +1.9%, Axia (ex-Eletrobras) +1.0%. Embraer fell 6.2% on a Q1 miss — adjusted net income R$145.4 million, down 51.5% YoY. Cemig (+1.1%) approved Alexandre Ramos Peixoto as CEO ahead of Q1 results. Banco do Brasil (+1.6%) renegotiated more than R$430 million in customer debt over two days. Brent rose 1.20% to US$101.26 on the Hormuz fire-exchange aftermath. The Súper RIGI announcement is structurally bullish for the MERVAL into Monday’s open. Mexico’s IPC consolidates above 70,000 with the CPI deceleration validating the Banxico terminal cut. COLCAP technical signal remains weak at RSI 38.11 with the Constituyente fight gripping the closing-stretch campaign. Fitch raised Brent 2026 to US$87 from US$70 and 2027 to US$65 from US$63, with the Hormuz reopening assumption pushed from one-to-two months to five months. The combined macro frame is binary into next week’s Iran response window: a deal lifts every LATAM index 2-3% in hours; a deal collapse takes Brent above US$115 and Petrobras with it.

Regional Snapshot

What to Watch This Week

• —Sat May 9 (today): Bolivia: Paz convoca encuentro nacional Cochabamba con líderes políticos + sociales · Peru: López Aliaga “Marcha de los Cuatro Suyos” 17:00 Lima · Iran response window status
• —Sun May 10: Petrobras Q1 results (after B3 close); webcast May 12
• —Mon May 11: Argentina Súper RIGI text to Congress · Bolivia magisterio strike · Petrobras Q1 results pricing
• —Wed May 14: INDEC Argentina April CPI (binary for disinflation thesis) · JNE Peru official runoff results due (mid-May per JNE secretary general)
• —Mon May 18: Ecuador curfew (Decreto 370) expires
• —Thu May 21: Banxico minutes (split-vote dissent breakdown)
• —Week of May 25: Mexico-US T-MEC formal negotiation phase opens · Brazil-US 30-day tariff working group first deliverable due (running to June 7)
• —Sun May 31: Colombia presidential first round · Sun Jun 7: Peru runoff · Jun 18: Copom meeting · Sun Jun 21: Colombia possible runoff · Jul 24: US Section 122 tariffs expiry · Jul 2026: US Section 301 final report on Brazil · Sun Oct 4: Brazil general election

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Argentina’s Súper RIGI announced on May 8, 2026?

Economy Minister Luis Caputo announced the Súper RIGI on Friday May 8 in a Casa Rosada press conference alongside Chief of Staff Manuel Adorni and Security Minister Alejandra Monteoliva. The new investment incentive regime reduces the corporate income tax rate to 15% (from 25% under the current RIGI), allows accelerated amortisation at 60% in the first year and 20% in each of the second and third years, eliminates export tariffs from day one, eliminates import tariffs on all production inputs, caps provincial Ingresos Brutos at 0.5%, and prohibits municipal sales taxes. Targeted sectors include copper refining and laminating, lithium batteries, electric vehicles, solar panels, wind turbines, fertilisers, uranium, datacenters, and agro-forestry. Caputo said investment requests could approach US$140 billion in the coming weeks. The project will be sent to Congress on Monday May 11. A US$10 billion Chevron Vaca Muerta project preview was confirmed by Adorni.

What happened with the US-Iran fire exchange in the Strait of Hormuz on May 7-8, 2026?

US Central Command said three US Navy guided-missile destroyers including the USS Mason came under attack from Iranian missiles, drones, and small assault boats while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The US then conducted self-defence strikes against Iran’s Qeshm Port and Bandar Abbas. Iran called the action a clear violation of the April 8 ceasefire understanding. Trump told ABC News the strikes were just a love tap and that the ceasefire remains in effect, then posted on Truth Social that the US would knock Iran out a lot harder if they don’t get the Deal signed FAST. Brent fell intraday to US$96.10 then bounced to a high of US$103.70 before closing at US$100.06 Thursday and rising 1.20% to US$101.26 Friday. Fitch raised its 2026 Brent forecast to US$87 from US$70.

What did the Lula-Trump 30-day tariff working group outcome announce?

President Lula and President Trump met for more than three hours at the White House on Thursday May 7. Both economic teams were ordered to set up a US-Brazil working group with a 30-day deadline to discuss the tariff structure. Brazil will launch a comprehensive plan against transnational criminal organisations the following week and confirmed a US-Brazil joint financial-asphyxiation track. Receita Federal teams and US counterparts will conduct joint operations against arms and synthetic-drug trafficking. No critical-minerals MoU was reached. Lula said Trump told him there are no plans for an invasion of Cuba. The Section 301 final report deadline remains July 2026.

What was the Costa Rica handover from Chaves to Fernández on May 8, 2026?

Laura Fernández Delgado, 39 years old, was sworn in as Costa Rica’s 50th president and the second woman in history to hold the office on Friday May 8 at the Estadio Nacional in San José. The ceremony brought delegations from 71 countries including King Felipe VI of Spain, Panama’s José Raúl Mulino, and Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa. Outgoing President Chaves was simultaneously sworn in as Minister of the Presidency and Minister of Hacienda — a doubling unprecedented in Costa Rican democratic history that preserves Chaves’s immunity through 2030. Twenty-two of thirty-nine cabinet posts carry over from the Chaves administration. Fernández announced a new Ministry of Coast, Seas and Fisheries.

What is the status of Bolivia’s national strike on May 8-9, 2026?

The Central Obrera Boliviana declared an indefinite general strike starting Friday May 8 at 00:00, coordinated with the CSUTCB Túpac Katari, the Federación de Juntas Vecinales de La Paz, and various sector unions. The Administradora Boliviana de Carreteras reported 15 to 18 active blockades concentrated in La Paz and Beni. The unifying demand is the immediate resignation of President Rodrigo Paz. Tupac Katari leader Vicente Salazar told Radio Fides that the population is tired of promises, promises, promises. The government convened a national meeting in Cochabamba for Saturday May 9. Magisterio announces a strike for Monday May 11.

Why is Peru’s López Aliaga refusing to recognise the runoff result?

Renovación Popular candidate Rafael López Aliaga announced on Friday May 8 that he will not recognise the result of the second round whether Keiko Fujimori or Roberto Sánchez wins, unless the JNE reviews the entire process. With ONPE counting at 98.98%, Fujimori leads with 17.16%, Sánchez has 12.04%, and López Aliaga is third with 11.89% — about 21,562 votes behind. He will appeal to the Constitutional Tribunal and international organisations and will convene a Marcha de los Cuatro Suyos for Saturday May 9 at 17:00 — a reference to the 2000 march against Alberto Fujimori. The JNE rejected requests for complementary elections by unanimous vote. The runoff is confirmed for June 7.

What did Mexico’s April CPI show on May 8, 2026?

Mexico’s INEGI reported on May 8 that headline annual inflation eased to 4.45% in April from 4.59% in March, below the 4.50% consensus. Month-on-month inflation registered 0.20%. Core inflation fell to 4.26% from 4.45% — the lowest reading in months. The print validates the Banxico decision Thursday to cut 25 basis points to 6.50% and close the 14-cut, 450 basis-point easing cycle. President Sheinbaum said the cut activates investment. Banxico minutes are due May 21.

What was Neoenergia’s R$47 billion concession-renewal announcement on May 8?

Neoenergia, controlled by Spain’s Iberdrola at 84% post the September 2025 PREVI buyout, announced on Friday May 8 a R$47 billion (US$9.5 billion) five-year capital-expenditure commitment across four distributors triggered by 30-year concession renewals. Coelba leads with R$25 billion through 2030, Cosern is committed to R$4 billion, and Neoenergia Pernambuco and Brasília account for the balance. The cycle 2026-2030 capex runs 82% above 2021-2025 and represents the largest distribution-grid investment cycle in Brazilian history. Neoenergia serves more than 16 million customers covering 40 million Brazilians.

Updated: 2026-05-09T07:30:00Z by Matias Sebastian Lopez · Latin American Pulse Issue Nº 25

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