Colombia 2026 Election: Cepeda Leads at 44%, De la Espriella at 22%, Valencia Surging Late
Colombia’s presidential election is 26 days away on May 31, 2026, and the race has narrowed to three names with thirteen candidates on the ballot. Pacto Histórico senator Iván Cepeda holds 44.3 percent in the most recent Invamer survey of 3,800 voters published April 26, with attorney Abelardo De la Espriella at 21.5 percent and Centro Democrático senator Paloma Valencia at 19.8 percent. President Gustavo Petro, barred from a second consecutive term, holds a 49.3 percent positive approval rating, and a second-round runoff on June 21 is virtually certain.
Key Points
— First-round vote on Sunday, May 31, 2026; runoff on Sunday, June 21 if no candidate clears 50 percent plus one.
— Iván Cepeda of Pacto Histórico leads four major April polls with figures between 37 and 44 percent.
— Abelardo De la Espriella, hard-right attorney with 18.9 percent in February, climbed to 21.5 to 29 percent across April polls.
— Paloma Valencia of Centro Democrático shows the steepest April rise, from roughly 10 to 19.8 percent in Invamer alone.
— Cepeda wins all Invamer second-round simulations, but Guarumo’s late-April poll shows Valencia defeating him in a runoff.
— CNE has opened a preliminary inquiry into Cepeda campaign financing and is reviewing a request to revoke De la Espriella’s candidacy over signature collection.
— Petro is decertified by the Trump administration as an anti-narcotics partner and personally sanctioned along with family members for alleged crime ties.
— A record 107 precandidates initially registered before consolidation into the 13-name ballot announced March 25.
Where the Race Stands 26 Days Out
Four major polls released over the last fortnight tell the same story: Cepeda is the only candidate within striking distance of the magic 50 percent first-round threshold, but he is not crossing it. The Rio Times, the Latin American financial news outlet, reports that the consensus places Cepeda in the high 30s to mid 40s, with two right-of-centre candidates competing for the second spot.
| Poll | Field dates | Cepeda | De la Espriella | Valencia |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Invamer / Caracol-Blu | Apr 15–24 | 44.3% | 21.5% | 19.8% |
| Guarumo / EcoAnalítica | Late April | 38.0% | 23.9% | 22.8% |
| CNC / Cambio | Apr 23–30 | 37.2% | 20.4% | 15.6% |
| AtlasIntel | Late April | 37.0% | 29.0% | 20.0% |
The dispersion across pollsters in the order of De la Espriella and Valencia matters more than the headline numbers. AtlasIntel places De la Espriella nine points clear of Valencia, while Guarumo and Invamer show them within two to four points. The runoff math depends entirely on which one survives the first round.
The Late-April Movers
Two candidates have moved decisively in April. Valencia, the Centro Democrático senator who has positioned herself as the establishment uribista alternative, almost doubled her share in Invamer from 10 percent in February to 19.8 percent in late April; De la Espriella climbed three points in the same comparison and gained roughly seven points in AtlasIntel. Both are absorbing voters from the centrist field.
Centrist former Bogotá mayor Claudia López collapsed from 11.8 percent in February to 5.5 percent in Invamer in some scenarios and as low as 3.6 percent in others. Sergio Fajardo, the perennial centrist candidate, dropped from 9.8 to between 2.5 and 4.2 percent. The combined centre is now polling under 10 percent in every major survey.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
-1.28%
172,043
-1.28%
67,458
+0.59%
10,821
+0.55%
3,225,190
+0.88%
2,281.11
-0.64%
55,976.67
+0.51%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 172,043 | -1.28% | +23.34% | 174,266 | 174,057 | 171,622 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.14 | -0.47% | -5.09% | 5.17 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 37.68 | -1.49% | +17.56% | 38.25 | 38.02 | 37.61 | 11,928,800 |
| VALE3 | 77.95 | -1.13% | +43.41% | 78.84 | 78.78 | 77.83 | 5,878,600 |
| ITUB4 | 42.29 | -1.05% | +17.03% | 42.74 | 42.67 | 42.05 | 9,231,900 |
| BBDC4 | 17.78 | -0.74% | +7.81% | 17.91 | 17.94 | 17.71 | 20,333,600 |
| BBAS3 | 19.73 | -1.25% | -10.52% | 19.98 | 19.87 | 19.62 | 8,402,300 |
| B3SA3 | 14.55 | -1.42% | -0.61% | 14.76 | 14.69 | 14.46 | 9,693,900 |
| ABEV3 | 15.74 | -3.38% | +17.76% | 16.29 | 16.10 | 15.69 | 20,002,100 |
| WEGE3 | 46.17 | -0.67% | +9.10% | 46.48 | 46.46 | 45.77 | 1,920,800 |
| PRIO3 | 52.99 | +0.06% | +26.87% | 52.96 | 53.67 | 52.79 | 2,613,000 |
| SUZB3 | 40.64 | -0.39% | -20.39% | 40.80 | 40.79 | 40.44 | 1,704,000 |
| RENT3 | 40.42 | -2.48% | +4.60% | 41.45 | 41.21 | 40.26 | 2,290,800 |
| AZZA3 | 17.36 | +1.28% | -56.90% | 17.14 | 17.73 | 16.72 | 1,389,400 |
| CSNA3 | 4.85 | +0.62% | -40.27% | 4.82 | 4.90 | 4.75 | 6,222,300 |
| GGBR4 | 21.64 | +0.93% | +28.55% | 21.44 | 21.90 | 21.50 | 7,665,000 |
| ENEV3 | 26.16 | -1.76% | +92.14% | 26.63 | 26.52 | 25.95 | 3,557,900 |
Why Cepeda Leads
Cepeda, a longtime human-rights activist and senator, won the Pacto Histórico consultation on October 26, 2026 — a result that consolidated the entire left around a single candidate one round earlier than the right has managed. His running mate is Senator Aída Quilcué Vivas, an indigenous Misak leader. The pair has been endorsed by Colombia’s major union confederations.
Three structural factors explain his lead. First, Petro’s approval has rebounded to 49 percent positive, giving the incumbent left coalition more wind in its sails than international observers expected six months ago. Second, the right-of-centre vote is fragmented across at least four serious candidates with overlapping constituencies, and the August 11, 2025 assassination of Miguel Uribe Turbay removed the strongest right-wing candidate from the field.
The Runoff Question
The first-round threshold is 50 percent plus one, and no poll currently shows Cepeda above 44.7 percent. A second round on June 21 is the base case for every analyst tracking the race. The question is who he meets.
| Runoff scenario | Invamer | Guarumo | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cepeda vs De la Espriella | 54.6 – 42.6 (Cepeda) | Statistical tie | Wide divergence |
| Cepeda vs Valencia | 51.2 – 46.6 (Cepeda) | Valencia ahead | Coin-flip race |
| Cepeda vs Fajardo | 46.2 – 31.5 (Cepeda) | Not measured | Comfortable lead |
Three datapoints matter for the runoff. Valencia carries 85.1 percent positive image among voters who recognize her, and only 1.3 percent of voters say they would never support her, the lowest rejection rate in the field. De la Espriella’s never-vote rate is 16.5 percent, the highest of the top three.
Twenty-five percent of voters name Valencia as their second choice if their preferred candidate is eliminated, by far the highest second-choice share. Fifty percent of voters say they prefer a candidate in opposition to the Petro government, a figure that climbs further in mid-income urban districts.
The Right’s Coalition Problem
For the opposition to defeat Cepeda, Valencia and De la Espriella would need to consolidate behind whichever one finishes second. Valencia has lower negatives and higher second-choice support, which makes her the more rational coalition pick. De la Espriella has the larger first-round number in some polls and is unlikely to cede the contest even if Valencia outperforms him on May 31.
Sergio Fajardo, the centrist who finished third in 2018, has publicly ruled out joining a Valencia coalition to block Cepeda. The fragmentation that hurts the opposition in the first round may persist into the runoff.
Why It Matters for International Investors
For markets, the question is continuity. A Cepeda victory implies broad continuation of Petro-era policy on energy transition, fiscal redistribution, and pension reform. A De la Espriella or Valencia victory implies a hard-right swing on security policy, fiscal consolidation, and likely accelerated normalization with the Trump administration after Trump’s decertification of Petro and personal sanctions on the Petro family.
Petro’s relationship with Washington has reached its lowest point of his term. Trump’s decision to decertify Colombia as an anti-narcotics partner and to impose sanctions on Petro and his family for alleged ties to organized crime has significantly raised the stakes for the next president. Eighty-one percent of Colombians told Invamer in November 2025 that they consider it important for the next president to maintain good relations with the United States.
For background on Latin America’s election cycle this year, see our analysis of Peru’s June presidential runoff and our coverage of Kast’s early approval slump in Chile. For Colombia regional context, see our earlier piece on Colombia’s election-period security crisis.
Open Investigations and Late-Stage Risks
Three risk vectors are active in the closing stretch of the race:
- Cepeda campaign financing: The Consejo Nacional Electoral opened a preliminary inquiry in October 2025 into alleged irregularities in the Pacto Histórico campaign’s financing.
- De la Espriella candidacy revocation: The CNE is studying a request to revoke the attorney’s candidacy on the basis of disputed signature collection during his independent registration.
- Candidate security: The August 2025 assassination of Miguel Uribe Turbay set a precedent that Colombian electoral and security services have been working to prevent from being repeated, with police protection increased for all top-three candidates.
Neither electoral inquiry is expected to alter the May 31 ballot, but either could shape the legitimacy debate after voting. A revocation of De la Espriella, however unlikely at this stage, would benefit Valencia and reorder the runoff math overnight.
What Happens Next
The campaign now enters its 26-day final stretch. Three milestones will define the closing arc:
- Mid-May TV debates: Final televised debates between the top three or four candidates, traditionally a moment when undecided voters consolidate their pick.
- Final pre-vote polls: Colombian electoral law restricts publication of polls in the seven days before the vote, which means the May 24 polls will be the last public read on the race.
- May 31 first round: Polls open at 8:00 a.m. local time. Preliminary results are typically available by 7:00 p.m. local time. A runoff on June 21 between the top two finishers is the base case.
A late shift on either flank could still change the runoff lineup. Valencia’s trajectory, in particular, is the most volatile variable. If she overtakes De la Espriella in the next two polls, the runoff math against Cepeda becomes a coin-flip race rather than a comfortable Pacto Histórico victory.
Frequently Asked Questions
When are the 2026 Colombia presidential elections?
Colombia’s presidential first round is scheduled for Sunday, May 31, 2026. If no candidate obtains 50 percent plus one of the valid votes, a second-round runoff between the two highest-finishing candidates is held on Sunday, June 21, 2026. The new president takes office on August 7, 2026, for a single non-renewable four-year term.
Who is leading in the polls in Colombia 26 days before the election?
Iván Cepeda, the Pacto Histórico senator, leads every major poll published in late April 2026. Invamer places him at 44.3 percent, Guarumo at 38 percent, CNC at 37.2 percent and AtlasIntel at 37 percent. Abelardo De la Espriella holds second place between 21 and 29 percent depending on the pollster, and Paloma Valencia of Centro Democrático climbed to between 15.6 and 22.8 percent in late April after a sharp acceleration during the month.
Can Iván Cepeda win in the first round on May 31?
A first-round victory would require Cepeda to clear 50 percent plus one, but no poll in 2026 has placed him above 44.7 percent. The base case across all four major pollsters is a second-round runoff on June 21. For Cepeda to win in the first round, he would need to gain at least six points from his current Invamer high in the next 26 days, a significant but not impossible move given the centrist collapse and Pacto Histórico turnout potential.
Why is Petro not running for re-election in Colombia?
Article 197 of the Colombian Constitution prohibits consecutive presidential re-election, so Gustavo Petro, elected in 2022 for the term ending August 7, 2026, is constitutionally barred from running in 2026. Petro’s approval rebounded to 49.3 percent positive in April 2026 according to CNC, and his endorsement is now a significant asset for Cepeda. The Trump administration’s decertification of Colombia as an anti-narcotics partner and personal sanctions on Petro and his family have, however, complicated the campaign trail for Pacto Histórico.
Who would win a Colombia runoff between Cepeda and Valencia?
Polling on this scenario splits sharply: Invamer’s late-April measurement gives Cepeda 51.2 percent against Valencia’s 46.6 percent, a 4.6-point lead within the margin of error, while Guarumo and EcoAnalítica’s late-April poll has Valencia defeating Cepeda in a runoff. The crucial variable is which centrist and right-leaning voters consolidate behind Valencia. Her 25.1 percent second-choice share and 1.3 percent never-vote rate make her the most formidable potential runoff opponent for the Pacto Histórico ticket.
What are the open electoral investigations in Colombia 2026?
The Consejo Nacional Electoral has two active proceedings affecting the top of the race. The first is a preliminary inquiry opened in October 2025 into possible financing irregularities in the Cepeda campaign, while the second is a request, currently under CNE study, to revoke Abelardo De la Espriella’s candidacy on the basis of disputed signature-collection procedures during his independent registration. Neither is expected to alter the May 31 ballot, but either could shape post-election legitimacy debates.
Updated: 2026-05-05T08:30:00Z by Rio Times Editorial Desk
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