Chile Copper Stalls as Lithium Soars 175% in April Exports

Chile’s April exports climbed 7% year-on-year to $9.718 billion according to data released by the Banco Central on May 7, with mining shipments leading the gain at 14.1% to $5.963 billion but copper showing its weakest performance since March 2024 as concentrate volumes fell.

Lithium carbonate exports surged 175.6% to $498 million, silver 236.1% to $114 million and gold 165.7% to $494 million, offsetting copper’s near-flat 0.3% growth to $4.647 billion.

The April trade surplus narrowed to $1.912 billion from $3.061 billion in March as imports accelerated 11.8% to $7.807 billion FOB on rising oil purchases tied to Middle East supply concerns, while salmon exports fell 6.8% to $482 million and pulp shipments dropped sharply, signaling weakness beyond the mining cycle.

Key Points

Copper’s Concerning Plateau

The Rio Times, the Latin American financial news outlet, reports that copper, which represents Chile’s flagship export and a large share of fiscal revenue, posted its weakest year-on-year performance since March 2024 when shipments registered zero growth. Cathode exports rose, but concentrate volumes fell, with Bci Estudios noting that the 14.1% mining headline gain was driven primarily by a price effect rather than higher physical shipments amid the global metals rally. Stripping out price effects, real trade dynamism in April was substantially weaker than the nominal numbers suggest, with the LME copper price averaging around 556 cents per pound through early April — down 2.9% month-on-month but still up 30.1% year-on-year.

The signal contrasts with Chile’s strong Q1 print, when total exports reached $30.054 billion (+13.8% YoY) with mining alone delivering $17.643 billion (+21.6% YoY). The deceleration in April suggests that copper’s contribution to Chile’s growth story is rotating from volume to price, leaving fiscal projections more vulnerable to sudden corrections in commodity markets, particularly given the Middle East geopolitical tensions that have lifted Brent crude above $100 per barrel.

Lithium and Precious Metals Take the Lead

Lithium carbonate, silver and gold are emerging as the new pillars of Chile’s mining export mix. Lithium carbonate exports of $498 million in April reflect the SQM-Codelco partnership that is ramping production through 2026, with first-quarter lithium shipments rising 25% by volume and Q1 lithium carbonate alone delivering $1.108 billion (+147.7% YoY). Silver and gold gains exceeding 200% are largely price-driven, tracking the global precious-metals rally as central banks continue to add to gold reserves and silver demand benefits from solar-panel deployment in the energy transition.

Imports Surge on Oil and Capital Goods

Imports rose 11.8% YoY to $7.807 billion FOB in April, driven by intermediate goods at $4.460 billion (+12.5%), consumption goods at $2.196 billion (+10.1%), and capital goods at $1.699 billion (+9%). Oil purchases hit their highest level in two years on Middle East supply fears, while capital-goods strength reflects energy-transition machinery imports. Agricultural exports fell 1.5% to $670 million, with industrial exports also disappointing as bleached eucalyptus pulp dropped 24.1% to $120 million and bleached softwood pulp fell 30.6% to $84 million, both reflecting weaker global pulp demand and Chinese inventory adjustments.

Connected Coverage

For more on the global commodity rally and Latin America’s mining cycle, see our coverage of Argentina’s Fitch upgrade and the lithium-driven minerals push from Vaca Muerta and our analysis of how Colombia’s nickel sector faces parallel supply-chain stress.

What Happens Next

• Coming weeks: Banco Central monetary policy meeting will assess copper-volume signals.
• Q2 2026: Lithium production from SQM-Codelco partnership expected to ramp further.
• Mid-2026: Copper price trajectory will determine whether mining tax revenue holds at 2025 levels.

More: Chile news in English, every day from The Rio Times.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Chile’s exports perform in April?

Chile’s April 2026 exports rose 7% year-on-year to $9.718 billion, the lowest reading since February but the 19th consecutive month of YoY trade growth. Mining alone delivered $5.963 billion (+14.1%), with copper at $4.647 billion (+0.3%), lithium carbonate at $498 million (+175.6%), gold at $494 million (+165.7%), and silver at $114 million (+236.1%). Imports rose 11.8% to $7.807 billion, narrowing the trade surplus to $1.912 billion from $3.061 billion in March on rising oil purchases at the highest level in 2 years driven by Middle East supply tensions.

Why is copper underperforming?

Copper exports rose just 0.3% in April, the weakest since March 2024 when growth was zero. Cathode exports rose but concentrate volumes fell, with Bci Estudios noting that the 14.1% mining gain was driven by a price effect from the global metals rally rather than higher physical shipments, and the LME copper price averaged 556 cents per pound through early April — down 2.9% month-on-month but up 30.1% year-on-year. Real trade dynamism stripped of price effects was substantially weaker than nominal headlines suggest, raising concerns about Chile’s fiscal exposure to commodity volatility.

What is driving the lithium and precious metals surge?

Lithium carbonate exports of $498 million reflect production ramp-up from the SQM-Codelco partnership announced in 2024, with Q1 2026 lithium volumes rising 25% and lithium carbonate revenue reaching $1.108 billion (+147.7% YoY). Silver and gold gains of 236.1% and 165.7% in April are largely price-driven, tracking the global precious-metals rally as central banks accumulate gold reserves and silver demand benefits from solar panel deployment tied to the energy transition. Chile is positioning to approach 300,000 tons of total lithium production in 2026 as new operations come online.

What does this mean for Chile’s economy?

The 7% headline growth masks rotation from copper-volume gains to price-driven mining revenue and rising lithium and precious metals output. With Q1 2026 GDP showing weak momentum and IPC at 2.8% in March (3.4% core), the export deceleration plus rising oil import costs are likely to keep the Banco Central de Chile cautious on the next monetary policy moves. Trade surplus narrowing to $1.912 billion from $3.061 billion in March also signals tighter external buffer at a moment when global commodity volatility remains elevated, with the Brent above $100 a barrel posing a fresh inflation risk.

Updated: 2026-05-08T12:00:00Z by Rio Times Editorial Desk