The Big Three
The MSCI COLCAP closed at 2,332.77 on Thursday, up 8.18 points (+0.35%), recovering from Wednesday’s 1.48% sell-off and reclaiming the 21-day EMA. The index opened at 2,324.67, dipped to a session low of 2,315.30 in the first hour, then ground higher through the afternoon to print an intraday high of 2,333.94 and close near the top of the range. The close at 2,332.77 — exactly on the 21-day EMA — reclaims the technical level that Wednesday had tested as support, signaling that buyers stepped in at the 50-day SMA band near 2,309.
President Gustavo Petro publicly defied the Constitutional Court’s order to return emergency-decree taxes, claiming “there is nothing to return.” On Wednesday, the court ruled 8–0 (Sentence C-079 of 2026) to strike down Legislative Decree 1474 — the tax package Petro issued under the December 2025 economic emergency — following its earlier invalidation of the emergency declaration itself. DIAN has 30 days to refund approximately COP$25 billion collected between December 30, 2025 and January 28, 2026, including COP$23.8 billion from the 1% export tax on coal and hydrocarbons and COP$1.2 billion from additional liquor import IVA. Petro’s defiance raises a constitutional confrontation risk six weeks before the May 31 presidential first round.
The government continues buying dollars ahead of the planned US$4 billion external bond buyback as the May 31 presidential vote approaches, with over 107 pre-candidates registered for the race. The peso remains near its strongest in five years after Wednesday’s 0.81% drop brought USD/COP to ~3,608 — the lowest since March 2021. BanRep remains at 11.25% after two 100bp emergency hikes in January and March, and the Finance Minister’s ongoing absence from the board creates persistent operational uncertainty. The IMF’s 2.3% growth forecast, combined with the fiscal vacuum left by the court-struck emergency decrees, defines the medium-term risk: the next government inherits a 546.9 trillion peso budget with an 11%-of-spending funding gap and no credible revenue path.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| MSCI COLCAP Close | 2,332.77 | +0.35% (+8.18 pts) |
| Session Open | 2,324.67 | bullish reversal |
| Session High | 2,333.94 | closed near high |
| Session Low | 2,315.30 | held above 50-SMA |
| Previous Close (Wed) | 2,324.59 | −1.48% |
| 21-day EMA | 2,332.77 | reclaimed at close |
| 50-day SMA | 2,309.67 | held as support |
| Kijun-sen | 2,290.46 | deep support |
| 200-day SMA | 2,286.01 | primary trend support |
| RSI (14) | 57.99 | neutral, recovering |
| MACD / Signal | 20.68 / 11.86 | hist 8.82, positive |
| BanRep policy rate | 11.25% | +200 bp YTD |
| Presidential 1st round | May 31, 2026 | 45 days |
02 Equities — The 21-EMA Reclaim
COLCAP Colombia today enters Friday’s session with the 21-day EMA reclaimed after the MSCI COLCAP rose 0.35% on Thursday, reversing nearly a quarter of Wednesday’s 1.48% decline. This Colombia stock market report covers a session where the tape absorbed a constitutional confrontation — Petro’s public defiance of the court’s refund order — and chose to bid the dip rather than extend the sell-off. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Latin American equity markets.
The session structure was constructive. The index opened at 2,324.67 — essentially flat to Wednesday’s close — dipped to 2,315.30 as the market priced in Petro’s “there is nothing to return” statement, but then reversed as institutional buyers stepped in above the 50-day SMA at 2,309.67. The afternoon grind higher lifted price to 2,333.94, and the close at 2,332.77 — right on the 21-day EMA — is the kind of technical reclaim that matters. The session’s range of 18.64 points was one of the narrowest of the month, suggesting low-conviction buying rather than panic absorption.
The market’s read is increasingly clear: the Petro–institutional conflict is priced. Three sequential court defeats, the BanRep governor’s public rebuke, and now a direct executive-branch refusal to comply with a refund order — none of this produced sustained selling. The explanation is simple: the May 31 presidential election is 45 days away, and the market is no longer trading Petro’s residual policy risk. It is trading the post-Petro premium: Paloma Valencia’s strong showing in the right-wing consultation, a divided Congress that checks extremes, and the prospect that a market-oriented successor would compress sovereign spreads and re-engage foreign capital. The COLCAP’s willingness to absorb Wednesday’s shock and bid Thursday is the clearest signal yet of that trade.
03 Petro vs. the Court — The Defiance
The Constitutional Court’s 8-0 ruling (Sentence C-079 of 2026) on Wednesday struck down Legislative Decree 1474 of 2025 — the tax package Petro issued under the economic emergency — and ordered DIAN to refund approximately COP$25 billion within 30 days. The refund breaks into two components: COP$23.8 billion from the 1% “fiscal stability tax” on first coal and hydrocarbon exports, and COP$1.2 billion from 14 additional IVA percentage points on liquor imports.
Petro’s response on Thursday was unambiguous: the money “was never actually collected,” and therefore “there is nothing to return.” The statement directly contradicts DIAN’s own internal records — a source at the National Tax and Customs Directorate previously confirmed COP$1.67 trillion collected under the broader emergency framework before suspension. The confrontation is now a question of institutional compliance: DIAN has 30 days to execute the refund regardless of presidential commentary. The risk — non-compliance with a Constitutional Court order — is the kind of headline that would ordinarily spike country risk. That it did not on Thursday is the market’s way of saying: this is a 45-day problem, not a structural one.
The fiscal arithmetic is the harder story. The government had originally targeted COP$11 trillion from the emergency package; it collected COP$1.65 trillion before suspension. The 546.9 trillion peso 2026 budget has a funding gap exceeding 11% of total spending, with the emergency route now closed and Congress having rejected the Ley de Financiamiento in December. Petro has floated a new economic emergency declaration, but Wednesday’s 8-0 ruling makes a third attempt legally fragile. The fiscal situation now passes to the next president.
04 Ecopetrol, Oil and the Peso
Ecopetrol’s CEO Ricardo Roa Barragán went on scheduled leave on April 7, with acting CEO Juan Carlos Hurtado Parra (EVP Hydrocarbons) now running operations. The leave is formally a personal matter with vacation days preceding a 30-day unpaid absence effective May 28 — but its timing, six weeks before the presidential vote and with the Ecopetrol–USO labor standoff unresolved, adds operational uncertainty. Ecopetrol’s dividend policy and capex cycle remain anchored to Brent, which eased toward $97.90 on Tuesday before stabilizing.
The peso’s strength — USD/COP near 3,608, a five-year low — continues to reflect the $4 billion external bond buyback program rather than domestic confidence. Public credit director Javier Cuellar confirmed the operation: the government is buying dollars to retire shorter-dated high-coupon external debt (above 7% coupons) and extend duration. The program has pulled the peso back from its strongest levels while supporting COLTES bonds. For equities, the buyback is a modest credit positive but creates a ceiling on peso appreciation that limits the carry-trade tailwind for dollar-revenue dividend names.
05 Technical Analysis — MSCI COLCAP Daily
From the chart: O:2,324.67, H:2,333.94, L:2,315.30, C:2,332.77 (+8.18, +0.35%). Thursday’s candle is a bullish reversal bar that opened near Wednesday’s close, tested the 50-day SMA band (2,309.67) with a wick low of 2,315.30, and closed near the session high at 2,332.77 — exactly on the 21-day EMA. This is a meaningful reclaim: Wednesday’s failure at the 21-EMA was the signal that prompted the sell-off narrative; Thursday’s recovery to the same level resets the range.
RSI at 57.99 with signal at 54.35 is neutral and ticking up — no overbought constraint and plenty of room to extend. MACD at 20.68 with signal at 11.86 (histogram 8.82) remains positive and has widened slightly from Wednesday, confirming the bounce has momentum support. Key resistance: 2,374 (upper Bollinger Band), then the early-April high cluster near 2,366. Key support: 2,314.23 (Tenkan-sen) → 2,309.67 (50-day SMA) → 2,290.46 (Kijun-sen) → 2,286.01 (200-day SMA). The close above the 21-EMA keeps the range regime intact and puts 2,374 back in play.
06 Key Levels
| Level | MSCI COLCAP |
| 2026 Peak (late Jan) | ~2,600 |
| Upper Bollinger Band | 2,374.26 |
| Thursday Close / 21-day EMA | 2,332.77 |
| Session Low (Thu) | 2,315.30 |
| Tenkan-sen | 2,314.23 |
| 50-day SMA | 2,309.67 |
| Kijun-sen | 2,290.46 |
| 200-day SMA | 2,286.01 |
| Lower Bollinger Band | 2,267.09 |
| Long-term trendline | 2,159.92 |
07 Looking Ahead
Friday’s test is whether the 21-EMA reclaim holds on a second consecutive close. A print above 2,340 would confirm the recovery and bring the upper Bollinger Band at 2,374 back into the range target. A reversal below 2,314 (Tenkan-sen) would invalidate Thursday’s bounce and re-open the 50-day SMA / 200-day SMA band at 2,309–2,286 as the immediate risk zone.
The dominant variable is no longer Petro’s day-to-day confrontation with institutions — that is priced. The dominant variable is the May 31 presidential first round and the emerging consensus that a market-friendly successor would compress sovereign spreads, restore BanRep credibility, and re-engage the foreign direct investment pipeline. The pre-election risk premium is now the swing input: polls showing Paloma Valencia or another market-oriented candidate in a strong position would be constructively received; any signal that the Pacto Histórico coalition retains the presidency would re-introduce the institutional premium that the Merval-Colombia parallel has been trading since Q1.
Key dates: May 31 — Presidential first round (runoff in June if no majority). Late April — BanRep policy meeting (market pricing hold at 11.25%). DIAN 30-day deadline to refund COP$25 billion per court order. Rolling through April — sovereign USD accumulation for US$4 billion buyback.
08 Verdict
Thursday was the session where the market chose to absorb the constitutional confrontation rather than sell it. Petro’s public defiance of an 8-0 court ruling would have triggered a panic session in a market that was still trading the Petro premium. The COLCAP’s +0.35% recovery — reclaiming the 21-EMA with a close near the session high — is the clearest signal yet that the market has rotated from pricing Petro risk to pricing post-Petro opportunity. With 45 days until the presidential first round, the institutional damage of the emergency-decree saga is being absorbed as legacy cost, not ongoing risk.
Bias: Range-bound with constructive lean. The 21-EMA reclaim at 2,332 is the key technical signal. A second consecutive close above it on Friday confirms the range recovery and targets 2,374 (upper Bollinger Band). The support shelf at 2,309–2,314 (50-day SMA / Tenkan-sen) held perfectly on Thursday’s intraday test. The structural case — 11.25% carry, peso at five-year highs, $4 billion buyback supporting the debt profile, and a divided Congress that constrains whoever wins in May — is intact. The near-term risk is binary: election polling. Watch 2,332 on the close, the DIAN refund compliance timeline, and any presidential polling that moves the market-friendly successor probability. This is now an election trade, not a Petro trade.
Related coverage:
Court ruling details: Colombia Court Strikes Petro Tax Decree 8–0
Previous COLCAP report: COLCAP Falls 1.48% as Court Hits Petro
Economy guide: Colombia Economy 2026: Petro Reforms, Coffee, Oil and Growth
Regional markets: Latin American Pulse — Daily Markets Brief
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published by The Rio Times.