Petrobras AGM Sealed: R$41.2B Dividends Approved (84.56%), Mello Elected Chairman, R$114B Capex — PETR4 +3.07% but Ibovespa Falls Second Straight to 196,818 (−0.46%) as Brent Snaps Back +4.7% to $99.39 — Real Holds at R$4.993 — Peru Dead Heat: ONPE at 93.07%, Sánchez 11.97% vs López Aliaga 11.93%, Gap Only 6,600 Votes, 22 Annulment Petitions Filed, “Insurgencia Civil” Rhetoric — Iran Rejects “Excessive US Demands” for Pakistan Talks, Hormuz Fully Blocked 48 Hours, France-UK Plan Post-War Unblocking — Chile IPSA Surges +1.44% to 11,477, RSI 70 — Bolivia Five-Department Runoff Sunday, OEA Deployed — Lula 39.2% vs Bolsonaro 30.2% in CNT/MDA
Executive Summary
The Big Picture: Today’s Latin American Pulse leads with three stories that define the region’s risk map at the midpoint of April. First, the resolved: Petrobras’ Assembleia Geral Ordinária on Thursday approved R$41.2 billion in total 2025 dividends with 84.56% shareholder support, elected Guilherme Mello — the architect of Lula’s fiscal framework — as chairman of the Conselho de Administração, and greenlit a R$114 billion capital expenditure budget for 2026 with exploration and production at its core. PETR3 rose 3.59% and PETR4 gained 3.07% on the day, yet the Ibovespa fell for a second consecutive session to 196,818.59 (−0.46%) — dragged lower by the return of oil fear as Brent snapped back 4.7% to $99.39. Iran told Pakistani mediators that US-Iran talks would be “unproductive” unless Washington drops its “excessive demands,” zero civilian ships have crossed Hormuz in 48 hours, and France and the UK are now preparing a post-war plan to reopen the strait without US involvement. The real held firm at R$4.993, the market’s verdict on Brazil’s structural attractiveness regardless of daily oil volatility. This is part of The Rio Times‘ comprehensive coverage of Latin American financial markets and economic developments.
In Lima, the race for second place has become a statistical dead heat. At 93.07% of actas processed, Roberto Sánchez holds 11.973% (1,880,549 votes) against Rafael López Aliaga’s 11.931% (1,873,944 votes) — a gap of just 6,605 votes, or 0.042 percentage points, with approximately 7% of actas still outstanding. López Aliaga has regained ground through overseas vote processing — where he leads Sánchez by some 50,000 votes — while Sánchez continues to gain from remaining rural actas in the southern highlands. Twenty-two annulment petitions have been filed across Jurados Electorales Especiales. López Aliaga has escalated from “electoral sabotage” accusations to calling for “insurgencia civil” and to “incendiar la pradera” — a deliberate invocation of social mobilisation that is now part of the institutional risk, not merely the electoral one. The JNE’s target of May 15 for official confirmation of the segunda vuelta matchup means five more weeks of this.
Beyond the three headline stories, the hemisphere is positioning for a weekend of decisions. Bolivia holds gubernatorial runoffs Sunday in five departments — Chuquisaca, Santa Cruz, Beni, Oruro, and Tarija — with OEA observers deployed and electoral silence in effect since midnight Thursday. In Brasília, the CNT/MDA poll showing Lula at 39.2% versus Flávio Bolsonaro at 30.2% in a first-round matchup frames the October context: the Petrobras governance restructuring, the Guimarães appointment at Institutional Relations, and the coalition management overhaul are all calibrated for a president who enters the race with a nine-point lead. Chile’s IPSA surged 1.44% to 11,477.11, with RSI touching 70 — the first overbought signal of the month — while Mexico’s IPC gave back Wednesday’s gains, falling 0.78% to 69,095.02 as oil repriced higher.
Risk Snapshot
| Country | Key Driver | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil | Petrobras AGM approved: R$41.2B dividends + Mello chairman + R$114B capex; IBOV 196,818 (2nd fall); PETR4 +3.07%; real R$4.993; cut-off Apr 22; Lula 39.2% in CNT/MDA | BULLISH |
| Peru | ONPE 93.07%: Sánchez 11.97% vs López Aliaga 11.93% — gap 6,605 votes; overseas votes closing gap; 22 annulment petitions; “insurgencia civil” rhetoric; JNE May 15 | CRITICAL |
| Global / Oil | Brent +4.7% to $99.39; Iran rejects US “excessive demands”; Hormuz fully blocked 48hrs; France-UK plan post-war unblocking; ceasefire expires Apr 22 | ELEVATED |
| Bolivia | Five-department gubernatorial runoffs Sunday Apr 19; OEA observation deployed; electoral silence in effect; Santa Cruz, Tarija, Beni, Oruro, Chuquisaca | WATCH |
Brazil: Petrobras AGM Sealed — R$41.2B Dividends, Mello Chairman, R$114B Capex — The Governance Question Is Answered
AGM Thu Apr 16: R$41.2B total 2025 dividends approved (84.56% shareholder support); R$8.1B final tranche as JCP in two parcels (R$0.31311454/share May 20 + Jun 22); cut-off Apr 22, ex-date Apr 23; total = R$3.20/share (ON + PN); Guilherme Santos Mello elected chairman (ex-Secretário-Executivo do MPO, architect of arcabouço fiscal); 4 of 11 board seats rotated — new: Mello + Fábio Henrique Bittes Terra (gov), Marcelo Gasparino + Rachel de Oliveira Maia (minorities); gov retains 6/11; R$114B capex budget for 2026 approved (E&P focus); PETR3 +3.59% to R$53.35, PETR4 +3.07% to R$48.33; but IBOV O197,737.89 H198,586.57 L196,353.98 C196,818.59 (−919.02, −0.46%) — 2nd straight fall; options + oil repricing; USD/BRL O4.9912 H4.9937 L4.9912 C4.9937 (+0.05%); Brent Jun closed +4.7% at $99.39; RSI IBOV 63.44–67.72; RSI BRL 30.59–36.47
What Happened
- —The AGM outcome: Petrobras shareholders approved R$41.2 billion in total 2025 dividends on Thursday at the Assembleia Geral Ordinária in Rio de Janeiro, with 84.56% support. The final tranche of R$8.1 billion — equivalent to R$0.62622908 per share in JCP, paid in two equal instalments on May 20 and June 22 — brings the total per-share distribution to R$3.20 for both ordinary and preferred stock. The B3 cut-off is April 22; shares trade ex-dividend from April 23. The government and BNDES, as controlling shareholders, will receive R$17.6 billion of the total distribution. Simultaneously, the assembly elected a new Conselho de Administração: four of eleven seats were rotated, with Guilherme Santos Mello — formerly Secretário-Executivo at the Ministério do Planejamento e Orçamento and the architect of Lula’s arcabouço fiscal — ascending to the presidency. The government retained its standard six-of-eleven majority. Minority shareholders secured two seats: Marcelo Gasparino and Rachel de Oliveira Maia. The R$114 billion capital expenditure budget for 2026, focused on exploration and production, was also approved.
- —The market paradox: Petrobras led the Ibovespa’s gainers — PETR3 rose 3.59% to R$53.35, PETR4 gained 3.07% to R$48.33 — but the index fell for a second consecutive session to 196,818.59 (−0.46%), with volume at R$38.3 billion. The paradox is explained entirely by oil: Brent surged 4.7% on Thursday to $99.39 as Iran told Pakistani mediators that Washington must abandon “excessive demands” before any negotiation proceeds, and the US military confirmed that zero civilian vessels have transited Hormuz in 48 hours. The oil spike benefited Petrobras but punished the broader index, which must now price the inflationary and growth consequences of sustained $100 oil. The real held steady at R$4.993, suggesting that the currency market is discounting a different narrative — structural Brazilian attractiveness — from the equity market, which is reacting to the oil shock’s second-order effects. The IBOV RSI has eased from 67–73 to 63–67, technically healthy after the 18-nominal-record streak.
Why It Matters
The Petrobras AGM delivered exactly what the market needed: a clean, predictable, technically justified distribution at the top of the commodity cycle, with no late political amendments, no fuel-price interference, and an orderly governance transition that puts economic-policy expertise at the head of the board rather than a political operative. Mello’s elevation — from the ministry that designed the fiscal framework to the chairmanship of Brazil’s largest company — signals that Lula’s economic team is integrating Petrobras into a coherent fiscal narrative ahead of October: disciplined capital allocation, reliable dividends, and a governance structure that reassures rather than alienates international investors. The R$114 billion capex commitment, concentrated in E&P, tells the exploration community that Petrobras is investing through the cycle, not just distributing. For the broader LATAM positioning trade, the message is reinforced: Brazil is the institutional anchor, and the Petrobras governance risk premium — which cost shareholders billions in 2024 — has been further compressed.
Key Watch
Apr 22: Petrobras dividend cut-off (B3) + ceasefire expiry. Apr 23: ex-date. IBOV 200K path now delayed — requires Brent stabilisation. Mello’s first board meeting. Copom Apr 28–29 (Selic 14.75%). PETR4 $99 Brent earnings sensitivity. Foreign flow persistence (R$56.5B YTD). October election framing.
OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Peru: Dead Heat — 6,600 Votes Separate Second from Third at 93%, Annulment Petitions Multiply, “Insurgencia Civil” Enters the Lexicon
ONPE at 93.073% (Thu Apr 16, 04:40 local): Keiko Fujimori 17.064% (2,680,035 votes), Roberto Sánchez 11.973% (1,880,549 votes), Rafael López Aliaga 11.931% (1,873,944 votes), Jorge Nieto 11.075% (1,739,526 votes); gap Sánchez-to-RLA: 6,605 votes (0.042 pp); at 91.75% (Wed 19:07): gap was ~32,000 — López Aliaga has closed ~25,000 votes via overseas count where he leads by ~50,000; rural actas from south still arriving but decelerating; 22 annulment petitions filed across JEEs since Apr 14; López Aliaga rhetoric: demands Corvetto arrest, calls for “insurgencia civil” and to “incendiar la pradera” (light the prairie on fire); Gabinete Arroyo seeks voto de confianza from Congress Apr 16 amid electoral irregularities fallout; EU mission urges corrections for orderly segunda vuelta; JNE official result target ~May 15; segunda vuelta Jun 7
What Happened
- —The narrowing: What appeared to be a widening Sánchez lead on Wednesday has reversed into a near-dead heat. Between Wednesday evening (91.75%, gap ~32,000 votes) and Thursday’s 93.07% report, López Aliaga recovered approximately 25,000 votes, driven principally by overseas ballot processing — where he leads Sánchez by an estimated 50,000 votes with roughly 68% of foreign actas counted. The national gap now stands at just 6,605 votes: Sánchez at 1,880,549 versus López Aliaga at 1,873,944. With approximately 7% of actas still outstanding — split between remaining rural ballots (which favour Sánchez) and additional foreign actas (which favour López Aliaga) — the outcome genuinely cannot be projected. Every percentage point of actas processed from here will move the needle in one direction or the other, and the composition of the remaining pool is the entire question.
- —The institutional escalation: López Aliaga has moved from accusing ONPE chief Corvetto of “electoral sabotage” and “destrozo electoral” to explicitly calling for “insurgencia civil” and to “incendiar la pradera” — a phrase that, in Peru’s political memory, evokes the social mobilisation that toppled Merino in 2020 and the protests that followed Castillo’s fall in 2022. He convened a rally outside the JNE on Tuesday to demand Corvetto’s immediate arrest, and his supporters have maintained a visible presence at the ONPE offices. Twenty-two annulment petitions have been filed across Jurados Electorales Especiales since April 14 — a legal strategy that, even if unsuccessful, introduces weeks of procedural delays into an already glacial count. The Gabinete headed by Luis Enrique Arroyo appeared before Congress on Thursday to request the voto de confianza, amid the fallout from logistical irregularities during the April 12 voting day when material delivery delays forced the extension of voting into April 13 in several Lima districts.
- —The dual-track uncertainty: The count is now a two-front contest. On the numerical front, the overseas vote is López Aliaga’s lifeline — with roughly 32% of foreign actas still to process and his 50,000-vote advantage abroad, he has a plausible path to reclaiming second place. On the institutional front, the 22 annulment petitions, the “insurgencia civil” rhetoric, and the political pressure on ONPE create a parallel track of uncertainty that operates independently of the actual vote count. Even if Sánchez ultimately holds second place by a few thousand votes, the legitimacy of that outcome — and therefore the stability of the June 7 segunda vuelta — will be contested through legal, political, and street-level channels simultaneously.
Why It Matters
Peru is now in a scenario that neither the conteo rápido firms (Datum, Ipsos/Transparencia) nor the early ONPE data projected with this level of precision. The 6,605-vote gap at 93% is inside any reasonable error band — the outcome could still go either way, and both candidates know it. For markets, the problem is not which of them comes second; it is that both scenarios now carry elevated risk. A Sánchez segunda vuelta means Castillista economic policy, anti-mining rhetoric, and governance instability. A López Aliaga segunda vuelta — if achieved through the closing of the overseas gap — means a right-right contest with Keiko, which is market-friendly, but arrived through a process that López Aliaga himself has delegitimised with fraud allegations, annulment petitions, and incitement to “civil insurgency.” The institutional damage persists regardless of the arithmetic outcome. For LATAM allocators, Peru is now a binary uncertainty that will not resolve until mid-May at the earliest — and the sol, the BVL, and copper-linked equities must trade through that uncertainty with zero visibility on the segunda vuelta matchup.
Key Watch
ONPE progression toward 100%. Overseas vs rural acta composition in remaining 7%. Gap trajectory — watch for crossover back to López Aliaga. 22 annulment petitions → JEE rulings. López Aliaga mobilisation calendar. Gabinete voto de confianza outcome. Sol and BVL daily reaction. JNE May 15. Jun 7 segunda vuelta.
RISK: CRITICAL
Oil: Brent Snaps Back to $99.39 (+4.7%) — Iran Rejects Terms, Hormuz Fully Blocked, France-UK Plan Post-War Reopening
Brent Jun closed Thu at $99.39 (+4.7% on ICE); WTI May at ~$93.56 (+2.49%); Iran via Pakistani mediators: US must “abandon excessive demands” and “fulfil prior commitments” before talks proceed; Tehran: Islamabad negotiations will be “unproductive” under current conditions; US military confirms zero civilian ships have crossed Hormuz in 48 hours (normal: ~135/day); France and UK preparing plan to unblock Hormuz post-conflict without US involvement — may require UN or EU mandate; Germany may join; Goldman Sachs: Brent could average >$100 if strait remains closed another month; Trump: deal is “very good,” war “near end”; ceasefire expires Apr 22; IMF/WB delegates in Washington warn markets “underestimate war’s economic damage”
What Happened
- —The reversal: Wednesday’s optimism — fuelled by Trump’s statement that Iran “wants a deal” and reports of an “agreement in principle” for Pakistan-mediated talks — lasted less than 24 hours. On Thursday, Iran communicated through Pakistani mediators that Washington must fulfil prior commitments and abandon what Tehran described as “excessive demands” before any negotiation could proceed. The Iranian government maintained its scepticism about US good faith, describing any imminent Islamabad meeting as “unproductive” under current conditions. Simultaneously, the US military confirmed that not a single civilian vessel has transited the Strait of Hormuz since the blockade was imposed — zero in 48 hours, against a normal daily flow of approximately 135 ships in both directions. Brent responded instantly, surging 4.7% to close at $99.39 on ICE, with WTI rising 2.49% to approximately $93.56.
- —The European plan: France and the United Kingdom are now preparing a contingency to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after the conflict without US involvement, according to The Wall Street Journal. Germany may join the initiative, which would require either a UN Security Council mandate or EU authorisation. This is the first concrete signal that European powers are planning for a post-war Hormuz architecture that is not dependent on US naval dominance — a structural shift in Gulf security that would have deep implications for oil supply chains and insurance pricing. Goldman Sachs reiterated that Brent could average above $100 per barrel if the strait remains closed for another month. Meanwhile, delegates at the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington warned that markets are underestimating the cumulative economic damage of the war.
Why It Matters
The LATAM oil calculus splits cleanly. Brazil, at $99.39 Brent with a net-exporter position, BTG Pactual’s US$90 billion commercial surplus forecast, and Petrobras’ freshly approved capex programme, is the primary beneficiary — even as the Ibovespa’s broader index struggles with the inflationary overhang. Colombia’s Ecopetrol benefits at the company level but the country’s fiscal fragility and the approaching May 31 election limit the upside. Chile and Central America, as net energy importers, face a direct cost-of-living squeeze — though Chile’s IPSA continues to trade on its copper profile rather than its fuel bill. Mexico, with Pemex’s declining production and growing refinery imports, sits in the worst position: high domestic fuel costs without proportionate export revenue. The April 22 ceasefire expiry is now the single most important date on every LATAM portfolio manager’s calendar. If it passes without a deal, Goldman’s $100+ average becomes the base case, and every country in the hemisphere must reprice accordingly.
Key Watch
TODAY Fri Apr 17: Any US-Iran Pakistan meeting materialisation. Brent daily trajectory. Apr 22: Ceasefire expiry — the pivot date. France-UK Hormuz plan details. Goldman $100+ scenario. Shipping insurance rates. LATAM fuel-subsidy stress (Chile gasoline, Ecuador Extra, Central America). IMF/WB damage assessments.
RISK: ELEVATED
Bolivia: Five-Department Gubernatorial Runoff Sunday — OEA Deployed, Electoral Silence in Effect
Runoffs Sun Apr 19 in Chuquisaca (Ayllón vs García), Santa Cruz (Velasco vs Ritter), Beni (Egüez vs Vargas), Oruro (Sánchez vs Chambi), Tarija (Oliva vs Soruco); La Paz cancelled after NGP declination + TSE personería cancellation; Potosí, Pando, Cochabamba resolved in first round (Mar 22); OEA observation mission deployed (funded by Brazil, South Korea, Spain, US, France, Netherlands, Panama, Turkey); electoral silence from midnight Thu; President Rodrigo Paz’s Patria alliance candidates compete in Beni, Oruro, Tarija, Chuquisaca; Santa Cruz: opposition Libre (Velasco) vs Santa Cruz para Todos (Ritter)
What Happened
- —The lineup: Bolivia’s gubernatorial runoffs take place Sunday across five departments after no candidate met the first-round threshold (50%+1, or 40% with a 10-point margin) in the March 22 elections. The highest-profile contest is in Santa Cruz, the country’s most populous and economically important department, where Juan Pablo Velasco (Libre alliance) faces Otto Ritter (Santa Cruz para Todos). In the remaining four departments — Beni, Oruro, Tarija, and Chuquisaca — President Rodrigo Paz’s governing Patria alliance fields candidates against various opposition forces. La Paz was removed from the runoff after Nueva Generación Patriótica declined to participate and the TSE subsequently cancelled its personería jurídica. The OEA has deployed an observation team funded by an unusual international coalition including Brazil, South Korea, Spain, the US, France, the Netherlands, Panama, and Turkey. Electoral silence took effect at midnight Thursday.
Why It Matters
Bolivia’s subnational elections are a real-time test of President Paz’s Patria coalition strength outside the presidential mandate. If the alliance sweeps its four contests while Santa Cruz goes to the opposition, the political map hardens into the familiar Bolivia-vs-Media Luna divide. If Patria loses more than one additional department, Paz’s grip weakens ahead of any future national reform agenda — including the constitutional, energy, and lithium-sector restructurings that international investors are watching. The IMF’s projection of Bolivia contracting 3.3% in 2026 means these gubernatorial outcomes will shape which regions attract (or repel) what limited investment flows remain. For LATAM context, Bolivia is the hemisphere’s weakest economy alongside Venezuela, and its institutional trajectory — whether centralising or federalising — will determine whether the contraction deepens or stabilises.
Key Watch
SUNDAY Apr 19: Voting day. Santa Cruz outcome (Velasco vs Ritter) = bellwether. Patria alliance performance across four departments. OEA observation report. Participation rate. Constitutional reform signals. IMF −3.3% contraction context.
OUTLOOK: WATCH
Brazil Politics: Lula 39.2% vs Bolsonaro 30.2% — The October Backdrop to Petrobras, Guimarães, and Copom
CNT/MDA poll (released Tue Apr 14): Lula 39.2% vs Flávio Bolsonaro 30.2% first-round; Guimarães settled into Institutional Relations Ministry (replaced Gleisi Hoffmann → Senate race); Paulo Pimenta new gov leader in Câmara; Centrão attended posse in force; Copom Apr 28–29 (Selic 14.75%, market consensus YE 12.50%); Focus IPCA 4.71% (5th consecutive revision upward, above target ceiling); Petrobras governance restructured — Mello + Guimarães = fiscal + political coordination ahead of October
What Happened
- —The political architecture: The CNT/MDA presidential poll released Tuesday shows Lula at 39.2% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 30.2% in a first-round matchup — a nine-point lead that, while not decisive (a runoff is implied), establishes the strategic frame for every government decision between now and October. This week’s actions read as a coordinated pre-campaign: Guimarães was installed at the Secretaria de Relações Institucionais to professionalise coalition management; Pimenta was moved to Câmara floor leader to consolidate the PT’s legislative operation; Mello was elevated to the Petrobras chairmanship to integrate fiscal and energy policy; and the Centrão’s attendance at the posse signalled the governing alliance remains intact. The Copom meets April 28–29 with Selic at 14.75% and market consensus for year-end at 12.50% — but the Focus survey’s fifth consecutive upward revision of IPCA to 4.71% (above the target ceiling) introduces the possibility that the easing cycle is delayed, which would tighten financial conditions into an election year. For markets, the question is whether the political stability implied by a nine-point lead translates into policy discipline or populist temptation.
Key Watch
Copom Apr 28–29: Selic hold or signal? IPCA trajectory vs target ceiling. Guimarães effectiveness with Centrão. October polling cadence. Fiscal framework compliance under oil-revenue windfall. BCB appointment process. Lula health status.
OUTLOOK: STABLE
Regional Snapshot
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Chile & Colombia The S&P IPSA surged 1.44% on Thursday to 11,477.11 — its strongest close since early February — with the RSI touching 70.33, the first overbought signal of the month. The session was driven by copper strength and broad risk appetite despite the Brent snap-back, confirming that the Chilean equity market continues to trade on its mining profile rather than its energy-import costs. Czech Republic president Petr Pavel arrived in Santiago for the first state visit President Kast has received since taking office. COLCAP rose 0.35% to 2,332.77, with modest Ecopetrol support at $99 Brent. The Colombia Carbón Fórum concluded in Bogotá with multilateral discussions on the carbon-market roadmap for Latin America. The Ecuador trade war (100% tariffs, energy pipeline suspensions, gasoline Extra above $3) remains unresolved. IMF and World Bank continue to project Colombia below regional peers. Previous Pulse editions. |
Argentina, Mexico, Crypto & Region In Buenos Aires, the MERVAL edged up 0.20% to 2,923,833.26 — treading water as the Adorni enriquecimiento ilícito investigation dominates political headlines. Adorni met with Desregulación Minister Sturzenegger on Ley Hojarasca and property reform; the April 29 congressional report remains the next political flashpoint, with Milei reportedly considering attending in person. Vozna polling shows Milei’s approval at 37.8% (down 7 points from January). Mexico’s IPC fell 0.78% to 69,095.02, giving back Wednesday’s gains as the Brent spike repriced energy exposure; the peso remains near 16.80–17.00 retail against the dollar. BTC/USD closed at $74,768 (−0.55%), consolidating in the $73,500–76,000 range with RSI at 57–61 (neutral). The Venezuela post-Maduro story quietly advances: the Rodríguez government reformed hydrocarbon and mining laws under US pressure, with a new US-registered investment fund targeting real estate, tourism, and agriculture. Previous Pulse editions. |
Markets at a Glance — Thursday April 16 Close
| Index | Thu Close | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 196,818.59 | −0.46% | 2nd straight fall; PETR4 +3.07% but Brent $99 dragged index; RSI 63–67; YTD +22.72% |
| USD/BRL | 4.9937 | +0.05% | Holds below 5.00; RSI 30–36 (oversold zone); structural bid intact despite IBOV pullback |
| IPSA (Chile) | 11,477.11 | +1.44% | Strongest since Feb; RSI 57–70 (touching overbought); copper > oil pain; Kast state visit |
| COLCAP | 2,332.77 | +0.35% | Modest; Ecopetrol at $99 Brent; Carbón Fórum concludes; RSI 54–57 |
| IPC (Mexico) | 69,095.02 | −0.78% | Gives back Wed gains on Brent repricing; RSI 52–54; AMIB YE consensus 72,427 |
| MERVAL | 2,923,833.26 | +0.20% | Flat-positive; Adorni scandal + Ley Hojarasca; Milei approval 37.8%; RSI 54–59 |
| BTC/USD | 74,768 | −0.55% | Consolidating $73.5K–$76K range; profit-taking continues post-$76K peak; RSI 57–61 |
All equity, FX, and crypto data from TradingView Tier 0 charts timestamped Apr 17, 06:09–06:10 UTC (riotimesonline account) — reflecting Thursday April 16 closes. Brent Jun from ICE via Money Times/El Español. Brazil from Jornal de Brasília/Metrópoles/Seu Dinheiro/Money Times/Portal Tela/CNN Brasil. Peru from ONPE/RPP/El Comercio/La República/Gestión/Trome/Infobae/CNN en Español. Bolivia from ABI/Infobae/Wikipedia ES. Argentina from APFDigital/El Cronista/Metadata/El Destape. Mexico from TV Azteca/Investing.com. Chile from Diario Financiero/Infobae-EFE. Colombia from Semana/Infobae. Oil from PrecioPetroleo.net/El Español/Goldman Sachs via WSJ. IMF/WB from Portal Tela. Crypto from Fortune/CoinDesk. Previous Pulse editions.
The Week Ahead
| Date | Event | Country |
|---|---|---|
| Fri Apr 17 — TODAY | US-Iran Pakistan talks (if materialise); Brent pivot; IMF/WB Spring Meetings continue | Global |
| Sun Apr 19 | Bolivia gubernatorial runoffs — five departments (SC, Tarija, Beni, Oruro, Chuquisaca); OEA observation | Bolivia |
| Mon Apr 20 | Adorni witness testimony (real estate financiers Rucci + Trimarchi); Petrobras 1st Mello board meeting | Argentina / Brazil |
| Tue Apr 22 | CEASEFIRE EXPIRES; Petrobras dividend cut-off (B3); Ley Hojarasca + PCT vote Argentina | Global / Brazil / Arg |
| Wed Apr 23 | Petrobras ex-dividend date (B3) | Brazil |
| Mon-Tue Apr 28–29 | COPOM Selic decision (14.75%); Adorni congressional report Apr 29 (Milei attendance?) | Brazil / Argentina |
| ~May 15 | Peru: JNE official segunda vuelta confirmation (Keiko vs Sánchez or López Aliaga) | Peru |