The Big Three
The S&P Merval closed at 2,923,833.26 on Thursday, up 5,944.44 points (+0.20%), snapping a three-session losing streak with a modest bounce off the cloud-top support. The index opened at 2,917,889, pushed to an intraday high of 2,941,752 in the first hour, then pulled back to test 2,889,179 before recovering to close at 2,923,833 — exactly on the Kijun-sen. The close-on-Kijun pattern is the Ichimoku system’s definition of neutral: the level that separates a pullback within an uptrend from a genuine breakdown. Thursday’s hold converts what could have been a fourth straight loss into a stabilization signal.
The IMF’s US$1 billion disbursement — cleared on Wednesday after the second review was approved — is the key flow positive anchoring the market. The tranche arrives as Argentina faces roughly US$19 billion in 2026 external debt maturities. Country risk near 500 bps remains the binary threshold: a sustained move below it unlocks private market access for the first time under Milei and allows the government to refinance the maturity wall on commercial terms. A move above it closes that door. The BCRA continues to accumulate reserves — targeting US$10 billion in purchases for 2026 — and gold above $4,700 provides a mark-to-market boost to gross reserves.
The structural headwinds have not changed: Milei’s approval at a record-low 36%, March CPI at 3.4% (tenth consecutive acceleration), and the REM consensus at 29.1% for full-year 2026 — triple the budget target. But Thursday’s session suggests the market is beginning to distinguish between the inflation noise and the structural thesis. YPF and Vaca Muerta producers continue to benefit from Brent in the mid-$90s. The April–May soybean harvest season is the single most important near-term dollar inflow catalyst, historically generating Argentina’s largest agricultural export revenues of the year. The RIGI investment incentive regime continues to attract commitments — nine projects exceeding US$16 billion have been approved, spanning energy, mining, and agriculture.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| S&P Merval Close | 2,923,833.26 | +0.20% (+5,944.44) |
| Session High | 2,941,751.87 | rejected below Tenkan |
| Session Low | 2,889,179.03 | held above cloud top |
| Previous Close (Wed) | 2,917,888.82 | −1.11% |
| Kijun-sen / Close | 2,923,833 | closed exactly on it |
| Cloud top (Senkou A) | 2,906,541.88 | intraday support held |
| Tenkan-sen / 21-EMA | 2,967,872 / 2,974,731 | resistance above |
| 50-day SMA | 2,821,606 | medium-term support |
| 200-day SMA | 2,648,023 | primary trend support |
| RSI (14) | 59.98 | neutral, flat |
| MACD / Signal | 49,101 / 46,112 | hist 2,989, nearly flat |
| Country risk | ~500 bps | threshold for mkt access |
| ATH (Jan 28) | ~3,296,502 | ~12.7% above close |
02 Equities — Stabilization, Not Recovery
Merval Argentina today enters Friday’s session with the three-day losing streak broken but the broader damage unrepaired after the S&P Merval rose a marginal 0.20% on Thursday. This Argentina stock market report covers a session where the cloud-top support at 2,906,542 held on the intraday dip to 2,889,179, and the close at 2,923,833 — exactly on the Kijun-sen — converts the pattern from “breakdown” to “stabilization.” This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Latin American equity markets.
The session structure was two-phase. The first hour saw a bid to 2,941,752 — testing the Tenkan-sen (2,967,872) from below without reaching it. The rejection there led to an afternoon sell-off that punched through the cloud top to 2,889,179 before a sharp late-session recovery lifted the close back to the Kijun. The wick pattern — rejection above, support below, close in the middle — is the definition of range compression ahead of a directional move. The MACD histogram at 2,989 is nearly zero, confirming that momentum has completely flattened.
The Merval’s 2026 underperformance narrative continues to dominate: the index is roughly flat YTD while the MSCI LatAm index has rallied more than 20%. At a forward P/E of 19.8x — the highest in the region — the earnings gap is the problem. The structural reform premium (Milei’s congressional majority, disinflation from 300% to 30%, Vaca Muerta) is priced; the earnings delivery (corporate margins, real wage recovery, domestic consumption) is not yet materializing. The sector weighting toward financials and energy means the Merval needs both lower country risk and sustained Brent to re-rate — and those two conditions are in tension.
03 The Inflation Drag and the Soybean Floor
The Reuters poll published this week confirmed the market’s inflation fear: 2026 full-year CPI at 30.0% (down from 44.5% in 2025 but triple the budget target), with March at 3.0–3.4% marking the worst monthly print of the year. The economy team, per Portfolio Personal’s Pedro Siaba Serrate, has “become a bit more dovish in order to give activity breathing room through better credit lines and lower rates.” Milei’s AmCham Summit speech on Tuesday acknowledged the March data is “bad” but insisted wholesale prices are already running below 1% monthly — a forward indicator the retail CPI has not yet reflected.
The counterweight is the April–May soybean harvest, which provides the largest seasonal agricultural dollar inflow of the year. The export-duty cut announced in December (soybeans from 26% to 24%, wheat and barley from 9.5% to 7.5%) was designed precisely to front-load these inflows and support the BCRA‘s reserve accumulation campaign. A strong harvest would ease debt maturity pressures, support the peso within the crawling band, and potentially push country risk below the critical 500 bps threshold. BCRA has accumulated US$3.3 billion in net purchases YTD with a US$10 billion target for the full year.
04 Technical Analysis — S&P Merval Daily
From the chart: O:2,917,888.82, H:2,941,751.87, L:2,889,179.03, C:2,923,833.26 (+5,944.44, +0.20%). Thursday’s candle is a doji-like bar with roughly equal upper and lower wicks, closing on the Kijun-sen at 2,923,833 — the textbook “decision bar.” Price was rejected below the Tenkan-sen (2,967,872) and above the cloud top (2,906,542), compressing the index into a narrow 52,573-point range that is the tightest since early April.
RSI at 59.98 with signal at 54.56 is neutral and flat — no directional conviction. MACD at 49,101 with signal at 46,112 (histogram 2,989) has collapsed to near zero, confirming total momentum exhaustion. This is the setup that precedes a directional breakout: the MACD histogram has been contracting for five consecutive sessions and is now at its narrowest of 2026. The next significant move — whichever direction — will generate a sharp histogram expansion. Resistance: 2,967,872 (Tenkan-sen) → 2,974,731 (21-EMA) → 3,000,000 (psychological). Support: 2,906,542 (cloud top) → 2,894,739 (lower support) → 2,837,178 (cloud bottom) → 2,821,606 (50-day SMA).
05 Key Levels
| Level | S&P Merval |
| All-time high (Jan 28) | 3,296,502 |
| Psychological resistance | 3,000,000 |
| 21-day EMA | 2,974,731 |
| Tenkan-sen | 2,967,872 |
| Session High (Thu) | 2,941,752 |
| Thursday Close / Kijun-sen | 2,923,833 |
| Cloud top (Senkou A) | 2,906,542 |
| Session Low (Thu) | 2,889,179 |
| Cloud bottom | 2,837,178 |
| 50-day SMA | 2,821,606 |
| 200-day SMA | 2,648,023 |
06 Looking Ahead
Friday’s close determines the weekly tone. A print above 2,967,872 (Tenkan-sen) would signal the beginning of a recovery toward 3 million and invalidate the four-session sell-off that started last Monday. A close below 2,906,542 (cloud top) would confirm the breakdown and target the cloud interior at 2,837,178 and then the 50-day SMA at 2,821,606. The MACD histogram at near zero makes the Friday session a coin-flip from a momentum perspective — direction will come from news flow, not technicals.
The macro catalysts are concentrated in the coming weeks. The soybean harvest dollar inflows through April–May are the most reliable near-term positive for the BCRA and the peso. Country risk near 500 bps is the binary gate for the entire medium-term story: below it, Argentina can refinance at commercial rates and the Merval re-rates; above it, the maturity wall remains a live risk. The April CPI print (due May 14) is the next inflation test — a print below 3% would restore some disinflation credibility; above 3% would confirm structural re-acceleration.
Key dates: May 14 — April INDEC CPI print. Rolling through April–May — peak soybean harvest dollar inflows. BCRA targeting US$10 billion in 2026 reserve purchases. US$19 billion in external debt maturities through the year. RIGI Decree 105/2026 enrollment open until July 2027.
07 Verdict
Thursday was the session that stopped the bleeding without starting the healing. The Merval’s +0.20% bounce — closing exactly on the Kijun-sen with a doji candle and a nearly flat MACD histogram — is a textbook neutralization after three consecutive losses. The cloud-top support at 2,906,542 held on the intraday dip; the Tenkan-sen at 2,967,872 rejected the morning rally. The index is compressed between those two levels and waiting for a catalyst to determine direction. The IMF’s $1 billion disbursement provides a flow floor; the inflation trajectory provides a sentiment ceiling.
Bias: Neutral — coiled on the Kijun-sen. The next directional move will be determined by whether 2,967,872 (Tenkan-sen) or 2,906,542 (cloud top) breaks first. The structural case — fiscal surplus, BCRA reserve accumulation, Vaca Muerta, soybean inflows, RIGI pipeline — has not deteriorated. The near-term case — 36% approval, 3.4% March CPI, 19.8x forward P/E, flat-to-negative YTD — has not improved. The soybean harvest and the April CPI print are the two inputs that can break the deadlock. Until one arrives, respect the Kijun-sen close and trade the range.
Related coverage:
Previous Merval report: Merval Falls 1.11% as Milei Approval Slips
Inflation: Argentina Inflation Hits 3.4% in March
Economy guide: Argentina Economy 2026: Complete Investor Guide
Regional markets: Latin American Pulse — Daily Markets Brief
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published by The Rio Times.