Argentina’s Merval Breaks Kijun as IMF $1B Disbursement Fails to Lift

01 Market Snapshot

02 Equities — The Third Red Candle

Merval Argentina today enters Thursday’s session on its worst three-day run of April after the S&P Merval fell 1.11% on Wednesday. This Argentina stock market report covers a session where the IMF’s 2nd-review approval and a scheduled US$1 billion disbursement — a clear positive — was swamped by the politics: Milei’s approval rating at a record low and Bloomberg flagging that the Iran war is derailing his zero-inflation promise. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Latin American equity markets.

The session structure tells the full story. The Merval opened constructively at 2,962,425, pushing to 2,977,381 in the first hour — a classic attempt to reclaim the 3 million handle that has defined the consolidation range. That move failed directly at the Tenkan-sen (2,979,967) and the 21-day EMA (2,983,121), both sitting right at the rejection level. From there, sellers took control: the afternoon saw a steady, low-volatility grind lower that broke through Tuesday’s 2,950,634 Kijun-sen support and kept going, closing at 2,917,888 — just above the session low and just above the next major support cluster at 2,906,541 (Ichimoku cloud top) and 2,894,690 (lower support band).

The sector context matters. Argentina’s benchmark is heavily weighted toward YPF, Grupo Financiero Galicia, and Transportadora de Gas del Sur — a financials and energy mix that should have benefited from higher US yields and a stable Brent. Neither catalyst showed up on Wednesday. Financials traded weaker on the political overhang, while energy names were held back by Brent rolling toward the mid-$90s. The Merval’s 2026 underperformance problem — flat-to-negative YTD while the MSCI LatAm index has rallied more than 20% — has a simple explanation: the forward P/E at 19.8x is the highest in the region (vs Ibovespa 13.4x, IPSA 15.6x, BMV 15.9x), and earnings haven’t kept pace with the Milei reform premium.

03 IMF Second Review — And Why the Market Didn’t Care

The IMF’s approval of the second review of its program with Argentina on Wednesday is, on paper, the biggest flow positive of the quarter. The US$1 billion disbursement lands precisely as US$19 billion in external maturities roll through 2026, and the Fund’s staff commentary reaffirmed the fiscal surplus as the program’s cornerstone achievement. Milei himself framed the announcement as validation that the motosierra — the chainsaw — continues to cut.

The market’s muted reaction reflects what the IMF disbursement is not. It does not replace private market access; country risk at ~500 bps still sits at the threshold, and until it sustains below that level Milei cannot issue to private lenders on terms he is willing to accept. The disbursement does not address the earnings problem — Argentine corporates are still running below the reform-premium valuation embedded in the Merval’s 19.8x multiple. And it does not fix the inflation trajectory, which was the day’s bigger headline.

04 The Inflation Problem and the Approval Problem

Milei’s approval fell to 36% in March — the lowest reading of his presidency. The driver is not abstract: it is the March 3.4% CPI print, the tenth consecutive monthly acceleration, combined with the widely reported detail that Q1 2026 has already consumed nearly the full 10.1% annual inflation budget target. Real wages are still declining. Formal job creation is negative. The government’s own success narrative — lower poverty, balanced public accounts, the IMF’s endorsement — is true at the macro level and absent at the household level. The phrase “favorable macro, negative micro” is now the consensus summary.

The Iran war is the accelerant. Bloomberg reported Wednesday that the US-Iran conflict is setting back Milei’s signature promise of monthly inflation below 1% by mid-2026. Education surged 12.1% in March on back-to-school effects, transport rose 4.1% on fuel costs tied to the war, and regulated prices overall jumped 5.1%. The REM private-forecaster consensus for 2026 inflation now sits at 29.1% — triple the budget target. April’s print, due May 14, is the next concrete catalyst: analysts expect a decline to 2.5–3.0% as the education effect fades, but Brent above $100 remains the upside risk.

05 Technical Analysis — S&P Merval Daily

From the chart: O:2,962,424.88, H:2,977,381.47, L:2,913,369.40, C:2,917,888.82 (−32,745.75, −1.11%). The session printed a bearish candle that opened near the Tenkan-sen (2,979,967) and 21-day EMA (2,983,121), was rejected directly at those levels, and closed below the Kijun-sen at 2,906,541 only marginally above it. The close at 2,917,888 sits below Tuesday’s low and confirms the Kijun failure that Tuesday’s report had flagged as the make-or-break test.

RSI at 59.93 with signal at 54.01 has turned down from the mid-60s — momentum is fading but not yet oversold, which means further downside is technically available. MACD at 53,917 with signal at 45,365 (histogram 8,552) remains positive on the surface, but the histogram has collapsed from levels above 30,000 earlier in the rally. The Ichimoku cloud sits between roughly 2,906,541 (top) and 2,842,924 (bottom) — the index is now trading at the upper cloud boundary, and a break of 2,906,541 opens the interior and then the 50-day SMA at 2,809,414. The primary trendline (200-day SMA at 2,604,288) is more than 10% below current levels and not in play on any near-term scenario.

06 Key Levels

07 Looking Ahead

Thursday’s session pivots on 2,906,541. A clean hold above the Kijun-sen / cloud top keeps a counter-trend bounce into the 2,960,000–2,980,000 band realistic. A break below 2,906,541 opens the cloud interior and points directly at the 50-day SMA at 2,809,414 — which would be a roughly 4% additional drawdown from the Wednesday close. The IMF disbursement flow should provide a floor, but Wednesday demonstrated that flows do not offset politics when the politics are moving this hard.

The macro calendar is loaded. April inflation lands on May 14 — the single most important print for the Milei reform narrative, given that a print below 3% would restore some of the disinflation thesis and anything above 3% would confirm structural re-acceleration. The country-risk watch at 500 bps remains the most important high-frequency signal: a sustained move below 500 unlocks private market access and a multi-billion-dollar refinancing of the 2026 maturity wall; a sustained move above signals the opposite. The soybean harvest’s peak dollar inflows through April–May remain the most reliable near-term positive.

Key dates: May 14 — April INDEC inflation print. Rolling through April–May — peak soybean export dollar inflows. BCRA targeting up to US$10 billion in reserve purchases in 2026. US$19 billion in external debt maturities through the year.

Related coverage:

Previous Merval report: Argentina Merval Breaks Below 3 Million on Bearishness

Inflation print: Argentina Inflation Hits 3.4% in March — First Quarter Consumes Budget Target

Economy guide: Argentina Economy 2026: Milei Reforms, Vaca Muerta, Peso and Debt

Regional markets: Latin American Pulse — Daily Markets Brief

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published by The Rio Times.

Deep Dive

For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Ibovespa, Merval, COLCAP, IPSA and IPC Guide

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