The Big Three
The S&P Merval closed at 2,917,888.82 on Wednesday, down 32,745.75 points (−1.11%), its third consecutive losing session. The index opened at 2,962,424.88, touched an intraday high of 2,977,381.47 in the first hour, then sold off steadily through the afternoon to a session low of 2,913,369.40 before closing near the bottom. The close sits below the Tuesday low of 2,950,634 — which had been described by technical analysts as the make-or-break Kijun-sen level — and confirms the short-term breakdown flagged in the prior session’s report. The three-day drawdown now totals roughly 2.5% from Friday’s close above 2,998,770.
The IMF approved the second review of its program with Argentina on Wednesday, clearing a US$1 billion scheduled disbursement. The staff statement praised Milei’s fiscal discipline and the sustained primary surplus. The tranche lands precisely as Argentina faces roughly US$19 billion in 2026 debt maturities and with country risk still sitting near 500 bps — just at the threshold markets consider necessary for a return to voluntary international debt markets. The disbursement is the most important near-term flow positive, but the Merval did not respond: markets were focused on the politics, not the IMF.
Milei’s approval rating fell to 36% in March — the lowest of his presidency — as Bloomberg reported that the US war with Iran is setting back his signature promise of sub-1% monthly inflation by mid-2026. March INDEC inflation printed 3.4%, the tenth consecutive monthly acceleration. The first quarter has consumed nearly the entire 2026 budget inflation target. Real wages continue to decline. The Milei reform premium — the belief that political stability would deliver disinflation and earnings growth — is being tested by the combination of war-driven fuel inflation, sticky regulated prices, and falling approval.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| S&P Merval Close | 2,917,888.82 | −1.11% (−32,745.75) |
| Session Open | 2,962,424.88 | rejected at Tenkan |
| Session High | 2,977,381.47 | 1st hour, then faded |
| Session Low | 2,913,369.40 | closed near |
| 3-session decline | ~2.5% | third consecutive loss |
| Distance from ATH | ~6.5% | ATH ~3,127,258 |
| March CPI (MoM) | 3.4% | 10th straight acceleration |
| Q1 2026 CPI cumulative | 9.4% | vs 10.1% full-year target |
| REM 2026 forecast | 29.1% | nearly 3x budget target |
| Milei approval (Mar) | 36% | record low |
| Country risk | ~500 bps | threshold for mkt access |
| IMF disbursement (Apr 15) | US$1.0B | 2nd review approved |
| 2026 debt maturities | ~US$19B | refi risk elevated |
| RSI (14) | 59.93 | neutral, turning down |
02 Equities — The Third Red Candle
Merval Argentina today enters Thursday’s session on its worst three-day run of April after the S&P Merval fell 1.11% on Wednesday. This Argentina stock market report covers a session where the IMF’s 2nd-review approval and a scheduled US$1 billion disbursement — a clear positive — was swamped by the politics: Milei’s approval rating at a record low and Bloomberg flagging that the Iran war is derailing his zero-inflation promise. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Latin American equity markets.
The session structure tells the full story. The Merval opened constructively at 2,962,425, pushing to 2,977,381 in the first hour — a classic attempt to reclaim the 3 million handle that has defined the consolidation range. That move failed directly at the Tenkan-sen (2,979,967) and the 21-day EMA (2,983,121), both sitting right at the rejection level. From there, sellers took control: the afternoon saw a steady, low-volatility grind lower that broke through Tuesday’s 2,950,634 Kijun-sen support and kept going, closing at 2,917,888 — just above the session low and just above the next major support cluster at 2,906,541 (Ichimoku cloud top) and 2,894,690 (lower support band).
The sector context matters. Argentina’s benchmark is heavily weighted toward YPF, Grupo Financiero Galicia, and Transportadora de Gas del Sur — a financials and energy mix that should have benefited from higher US yields and a stable Brent. Neither catalyst showed up on Wednesday. Financials traded weaker on the political overhang, while energy names were held back by Brent rolling toward the mid-$90s. The Merval’s 2026 underperformance problem — flat-to-negative YTD while the MSCI LatAm index has rallied more than 20% — has a simple explanation: the forward P/E at 19.8x is the highest in the region (vs Ibovespa 13.4x, IPSA 15.6x, BMV 15.9x), and earnings haven’t kept pace with the Milei reform premium.
03 IMF Second Review — And Why the Market Didn’t Care
The IMF’s approval of the second review of its program with Argentina on Wednesday is, on paper, the biggest flow positive of the quarter. The US$1 billion disbursement lands precisely as US$19 billion in external maturities roll through 2026, and the Fund’s staff commentary reaffirmed the fiscal surplus as the program’s cornerstone achievement. Milei himself framed the announcement as validation that the motosierra — the chainsaw — continues to cut.
The market’s muted reaction reflects what the IMF disbursement is not. It does not replace private market access; country risk at ~500 bps still sits at the threshold, and until it sustains below that level Milei cannot issue to private lenders on terms he is willing to accept. The disbursement does not address the earnings problem — Argentine corporates are still running below the reform-premium valuation embedded in the Merval’s 19.8x multiple. And it does not fix the inflation trajectory, which was the day’s bigger headline.
04 The Inflation Problem and the Approval Problem
Milei’s approval fell to 36% in March — the lowest reading of his presidency. The driver is not abstract: it is the March 3.4% CPI print, the tenth consecutive monthly acceleration, combined with the widely reported detail that Q1 2026 has already consumed nearly the full 10.1% annual inflation budget target. Real wages are still declining. Formal job creation is negative. The government’s own success narrative — lower poverty, balanced public accounts, the IMF’s endorsement — is true at the macro level and absent at the household level. The phrase “favorable macro, negative micro” is now the consensus summary.
The Iran war is the accelerant. Bloomberg reported Wednesday that the US-Iran conflict is setting back Milei’s signature promise of monthly inflation below 1% by mid-2026. Education surged 12.1% in March on back-to-school effects, transport rose 4.1% on fuel costs tied to the war, and regulated prices overall jumped 5.1%. The REM private-forecaster consensus for 2026 inflation now sits at 29.1% — triple the budget target. April’s print, due May 14, is the next concrete catalyst: analysts expect a decline to 2.5–3.0% as the education effect fades, but Brent above $100 remains the upside risk.
05 Technical Analysis — S&P Merval Daily
From the chart: O:2,962,424.88, H:2,977,381.47, L:2,913,369.40, C:2,917,888.82 (−32,745.75, −1.11%). The session printed a bearish candle that opened near the Tenkan-sen (2,979,967) and 21-day EMA (2,983,121), was rejected directly at those levels, and closed below the Kijun-sen at 2,906,541 only marginally above it. The close at 2,917,888 sits below Tuesday’s low and confirms the Kijun failure that Tuesday’s report had flagged as the make-or-break test.
RSI at 59.93 with signal at 54.01 has turned down from the mid-60s — momentum is fading but not yet oversold, which means further downside is technically available. MACD at 53,917 with signal at 45,365 (histogram 8,552) remains positive on the surface, but the histogram has collapsed from levels above 30,000 earlier in the rally. The Ichimoku cloud sits between roughly 2,906,541 (top) and 2,842,924 (bottom) — the index is now trading at the upper cloud boundary, and a break of 2,906,541 opens the interior and then the 50-day SMA at 2,809,414. The primary trendline (200-day SMA at 2,604,288) is more than 10% below current levels and not in play on any near-term scenario.
06 Key Levels
| Level | S&P Merval |
| All-time high | 3,127,258 |
| 21-day EMA | 2,983,120 |
| Tenkan-sen | 2,979,967 |
| Session High (Wed) | 2,977,381 |
| Psychological resistance | 3,000,000 |
| Wednesday Close | 2,917,888 |
| Session Low (Wed) | 2,913,369 |
| Kijun-sen / Cloud top | 2,906,541 |
| Support 1 (lower band) | 2,894,690 |
| Cloud bottom | 2,842,924 |
| Support 2 (50-day SMA) | 2,809,414 |
| 200-day SMA | 2,604,288 |
07 Looking Ahead
Thursday’s session pivots on 2,906,541. A clean hold above the Kijun-sen / cloud top keeps a counter-trend bounce into the 2,960,000–2,980,000 band realistic. A break below 2,906,541 opens the cloud interior and points directly at the 50-day SMA at 2,809,414 — which would be a roughly 4% additional drawdown from the Wednesday close. The IMF disbursement flow should provide a floor, but Wednesday demonstrated that flows do not offset politics when the politics are moving this hard.
The macro calendar is loaded. April inflation lands on May 14 — the single most important print for the Milei reform narrative, given that a print below 3% would restore some of the disinflation thesis and anything above 3% would confirm structural re-acceleration. The country-risk watch at 500 bps remains the most important high-frequency signal: a sustained move below 500 unlocks private market access and a multi-billion-dollar refinancing of the 2026 maturity wall; a sustained move above signals the opposite. The soybean harvest’s peak dollar inflows through April–May remain the most reliable near-term positive.
Key dates: May 14 — April INDEC inflation print. Rolling through April–May — peak soybean export dollar inflows. BCRA targeting up to US$10 billion in reserve purchases in 2026. US$19 billion in external debt maturities through the year.
08 Verdict
Wednesday was the session where a clearly positive flow event — the IMF’s 2nd-review approval and a scheduled US$1 billion disbursement — was unable to overcome the political and inflation signal. The Merval’s third consecutive red candle, closing below the Tuesday low and below the Kijun-sen, confirms that the 3-million-handle regime has given way to a lower consolidation zone for now. Milei’s 36% approval reading, the tenth consecutive inflation acceleration, and Bloomberg’s framing of the Iran war as a direct setback to the zero-inflation promise are the three inputs the market is pricing in. Against that backdrop, an IMF tranche is a paragraph of reassurance, not a re-rating.
Bias: Cautious — defending the cloud top. The 2,906,541 level is the make-or-break test for Thursday. A hold opens a bounce back toward 2,960,000–2,980,000; a break opens 2,842,924 (cloud bottom) and then the 50-day at 2,809,414. The structural case has not changed: fiscal surplus, BCRA reserve accumulation, Vaca Muerta growth, soybean dollar inflows. The near-term case has: inflation is not cooperating, approval is falling, the forward P/E at 19.8x still prices in earnings growth that hasn’t arrived. Watch 2,906,541 on the index, the April CPI print on May 14, and any sustained move in country risk below 500 bps. Until then, respect the three-day decline.
Related coverage:
Previous Merval report: Argentina Merval Breaks Below 3 Million on Bearishness
Inflation print: Argentina Inflation Hits 3.4% in March — First Quarter Consumes Budget Target
Economy guide: Argentina Economy 2026: Milei Reforms, Vaca Muerta, Peso and Debt
Regional markets: Latin American Pulse — Daily Markets Brief
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published by The Rio Times.