Chile Hits 20 Million People, Then Faces A Long Population Decline

Key Points

• Chile is projected to pass 20 million residents in mid-2026, then peak in 2035 before declining.
• Deaths are expected to exceed births from 2028, while fertility stays far below replacement levels.
• Aging will reshape budgets, labor supply, and housing demand, with migration only partly offsetting the shift.

Chile is about to cross a milestone that reads like growth. The statistics office, INE, projects 20,150,948 residents by June 2026. The same outlook puts the peak in June 2035, at 20,643,490.

From 2036, totals begin a gradual slide, reaching 16,972,558 by mid-2070. The mechanics are simple. Fewer Chileans are being born, and people are living longer.

INE expects deaths to outnumber births from 2028. Fertility is projected to fall from 1.06 children per woman in 2024 to 0.92 in 2026. It keeps easing until 2035, then edges up toward 1.2 by 2070. Replacement level is about 2.1.

Longevity reinforces the shift. INE projects life expectancy at birth near 81.8 years in 2026. The estimate is 79.5 for men and 84.3 for women. By 2070, overall life expectancy is projected at 88.4 years, including 86.7 for men and 90.2 for women.

Chile Faces Accelerating Population Aging

Migration helped in the past, but it may not be a lasting fix. INE notes net migration peaking around 200,000 in 2018. It then fell during the pandemic.

It was about 140,000 in 2021 and 2022. The projection assumes a gradual reduction, stabilizing toward 2040. Chile’s latest census already shows the direction of travel.

Censo 2024 counted 18,480,432 people, with women at 51.5% and men at 48.5%. It recorded 7,642,716 dwellings and 6,596,527 households. Average household size is 2.8 people. Santiago’s metro area has 7.6 million residents.

The age structure is the real headline. INE projects those 65 or older could reach 42.6% of Chile by 2070. Under-15s could drop to 7.2%.

By 2045, older adults may outnumber children by three to one. These numbers constrain policy, regardless of ideology, and they are spreading fast across news and social feeds.

Related coverage: Brazil’s Morning Call | Chile’s Jobless Rate Eases To 8.0%, But New Entrants And Inf This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Chile affairs and Latin American financial news.

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