Mexico Weighs Petrobras Alliance for Gulf Deepwater

A Pemex Petrobras alliance for deepwater exploration in the Gulf of Mexico moved closer to formal discussion on Tuesday, though Mexico’s president stressed that no commitment has been made. The Rio Times, the Latin American financial news outlet, examines why the proposal matters for both countries and what stands in the way.

President Claudia Sheinbaum confirmed during her morning press conference that she is evaluating the offer made by Brazil’s President Lula, who publicly proposed the partnership last week at a Petrobras refinery in Minas Gerais. “We haven’t decided. Let’s see what the proposal is,” Sheinbaum said, adding that the idea focuses primarily on oil in deep waters.

Why the Pemex Petrobras Alliance Makes Sense

The logic is straightforward. Pemex has acreage in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico but no experience producing there. Petrobras is among the world’s most accomplished deepwater operators, having built Brazil’s entire pre-salt oil province at depths exceeding 2,000 meters. On the U.S. side of the same basin, companies produce roughly 2 million barrels per day from deepwater fields. On Mexico’s side, commercial deepwater production remains at zero.

Pemex currently has two deepwater partnerships with private companies: the Trion field with Australia’s Woodside Energy, targeting first production in 2028, and the Lakach gas project revived with Grupo Carso. But overall production continues to decline, falling to 1.63 million barrels per day in 2025, the lowest since 1980.

April Meeting Will Shape the Pemex Petrobras Path

Sheinbaum announced that Petrobras CEO Magda Chambriard will visit Mexico in April to meet with Pemex director Victor Rodriguez and Energy Secretary Luz Elena Gonzalez. Sheinbaum said she will also receive Chambriard personally. The April discussions are expected to define whether the cooperation advances to a formal framework.

The proposal is not new. Lula first floated a Pemex-Petrobras partnership during his original presidency in 2008, but the idea went nowhere. This time the context has changed. Mexico suspended competitive deepwater auctions under the previous Lopez Obrador administration, and few major international companies have signed new exploration agreements since. A state-to-state partnership with Latin America’s largest oil company could sidestep the political resistance to private-sector participation that has constrained Pemex for years.

Beyond Oil: Ethanol and Biofuels

Sheinbaum indicated the potential cooperation extends beyond petroleum. She expressed interest in Brazil’s ethanol industry, noting Petrobras’s experience producing biofuels from sugarcane and mentioning a Brazilian laboratory working on biomass from maguey cactus. Mexico is seeking to develop alternative fuel chains as part of its energy diversification strategy.

Sheinbaum also confirmed she plans to visit Brazil between June and July, which would be the first presidential visit since she took office. The trip would coincide with Brazil’s own election campaign season, giving the visit both commercial and diplomatic significance.

For Lula, the alliance would extend Petrobras’s international reach at a moment when the company is investing record sums domestically. For Sheinbaum, it offers technical capability that Pemex cannot develop alone, without ceding ground to Western majors. Whether the numbers and the politics align will become clearer after April’s meetings in Mexico City.

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