Can a Bolsonaro Win Brazil’s Center? Flávio Is Betting Yes

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the presidential pre-candidate of Brazil’s right, is doing something his father never bothered to try: courting voters who don’t already agree with him. Internal polling has triggered a deliberate shift in tone, with his campaign team concluding that moderate voters wrongly associate Flávio with militarism — a career he never had.

In qualitative interviews, swing voters barely knew him beyond “Jair Bolsonaro’s son.” That’s a problem for a candidate who needs the center to beat the Workers’ Party in October.

Carnival, racism, and the rainbow flag

The rebranding has been rapid. In recent days, Flávio publicly praised Brazilian Carnival as “one of the most popular festivals on the planet” and honored the workers — seamstresses, musicians, blacksmiths, producers — who make it happen. He defended soccer star Vinícius Júnior against racist abuse during a Real Madrid match against Benfica.

Perhaps most striking: his brother Eduardo Bolsonaro shared a pro-LGBT post featuring an AI-generated image of a supporter kissing Flávio‘s cheek in front of a rainbow flag. The caption asked whether anyone had ever heard a homophobic statement from Flávio. The senator liked the post.

For a family whose patriarch built a political career on inflammatory remarks about Black, gay, and female Brazilians, the pivot is unmistakable.

The Lula opening

Flávio also exploited a vulnerability the government created for itself. The samba school Acadêmicos de Niterói honored President Lula in its Carnival parade — in an election year. Lula’s presence at the Sambódromo alongside officials drew accusations of illegal early campaigning. The school finished last and was relegated.

Flávio framed the criticism as nonpartisan, addressing voters who support “neither Bolsonaro nor Lula.” He condemned the use of public funds while defending Carnival itself as culture that “deserves respect.”

Numbers and limits

The strategy has urgency behind it. A Genial/Quaest poll from February showed Flávio trailing Lula by just five points in a hypothetical runoff — down from a 16-point gap in August. But 62% of Brazilians say they would never vote for him. His growth potential lies in the 23% who say they “might” — a centrist, persuadable bloc.

Campaign coordinator Rogério Marinho denies any of this is calculated, calling Flávio “a senator with political sensitivity” whose words reflect spontaneity. Allies are also planning a trip to northern Brazil to meet Indigenous communities. Whether the repositioning is genuine or theatrical, the Bolsonaro brand is attempting something it has never tried before: moderation. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Brazil politics and Latin American financial news.

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