Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for August 18, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets open today amid political maneuvering and economic headwinds. The Centrão, Brazil’s center-right coalition, has aligned with President Lula.
It rejected Eduardo Bolsonaro’s push to pardon the alleged coup plotters of January 8, 2023, and to remove Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes.
The coalition is prioritizing access to government resources over ideological battles. This strengthens Lula’s legislative control but highlights ongoing political volatility.
U.S. 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports, effective August 6, 2025, threaten R$175 billion in export revenues, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing.
The Central Bank’s 15% Selic rate and a 76.6% public debt-to-GDP ratio pressure retail and construction, while R$30 billion in government credit lines and tax credits for exporters raise fiscal sustainability concerns.
Today’s economic agenda is critical, featuring key domestic and global releases that will influence market sentiment, currency stability, and commodity demand.
Economic Agenda
Brazil
- 7:00 AM EST / 8:00 AM BRT – IGP-10 Inflation Index (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -1.7%. Tracks monthly inflation trends, influencing BCB’s monetary policy and retail sector performance.
- 7:25 AM EST / 8:25 AM BRT – BCB Focus Market Readout: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Provides market forecasts, guiding policy and investor sentiment across sectors.
- 8:00 AM EST / 9:00 AM BRT – IBC-Br Economic Activity (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -0.70%. Measures economic activity, critical for assessing growth amidst trade tensions.
Japan
- 00:30 AM EST / 1:30 AM BRT – Tertiary Industry Activity Index (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -1.10%. Signals service sector health, impacting demand for Brazilian commodities.
Switzerland
- 2:30 AM EST / 3:30 AM BRT – Industrial Production (YoY) (Q2): Actual -0.10%, Consensus TBD, Previous 8.90%. Reflects industrial trends, influencing Brazil’s export markets.
Eurozone
- 4:00 AM EST / 5:00 AM BRT – Spanish Trade Balance (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -2.54B. Signals Eurozone trade health, impacting demand for Brazilian goods.
- 5:00 AM EST / 6:00 AM BRT – Trade Balance (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus 18.1B, Previous 16.2B. Tracks Eurozone trade dynamics, critical for Brazil’s commodity exports.
- 5:30 AM EST / 6:30 AM BRT – German 12-Month Bubill Auction: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 1.798%. Gauges Eurozone borrowing costs, influencing market sentiment.
- 9:00 AM EST / 10:00 AM BRT – French 12-Month BTF Auction: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 1.973%. Reflects borrowing trends, impacting Eurozone demand.
- 9:00 AM EST / 10:00 AM BRT – French 3-Month BTF Auction: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 1.952%. Signals short-term borrowing costs, affecting trade dynamics.
- 9:00 AM EST / 10:00 AM BRT – French 6-Month BTF Auction: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 1.971%. Tracks borrowing trends, influencing Brazil’s exports.
China
- 6:00 AM EST / 7:00 AM BRT – FDI (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -15.20%. Measures foreign investment, critical for Brazil’s commodity demand.
Canada
- 8:15 AM EST / 9:15 AM BRT – Housing Starts (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 270.0K, Previous 283.7K. Signals housing market activity, impacting commodity demand.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Foreign Securities Purchases (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus -4.75B, Previous -2.79B. Reflects capital flows, influencing currency stability.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 13.370B. Tracks investment trends, impacting trade.
United States
- 10:00 AM EST / 11:00 AM BRT – NAHB Housing Market Index (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 34, Previous 33. Gauges housing market sentiment, critical for Brazil’s commodity exports.
- 11:30 AM EST / 12:30 PM BRT – 3-Month Bill Auction: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 4.150%. Reflects short-term borrowing costs, influencing market sentiment.
- 11:30 AM EST / 12:30 PM BRT – 6-Month Bill Auction: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 3.970%. Tracks borrowing trends, impacting trade dynamics.
New Zealand
- 6:45 PM EST / 7:45 PM BRT – PPI Input (QoQ) (Q2): Actual TBD, Consensus 1.4%, Previous 2.9%. Measures input price trends, impacting commodity demand.
- 6:45 PM EST / 7:45 PM BRT – PPI Output (QoQ) (Q2): Actual TBD, Consensus 1.0%, Previous 2.1%. Tracks output price trends, influencing Brazil’s exports.
Australia
- 8:30 PM EST / 9:30 PM BRT – Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 0.6%. Signals consumer confidence, impacting commodity demand.
Brazil’s Markets on Friday
Brazil’s Ibovespa index closed nearly flat on Friday, August 15, 2025, at 136,340.77 points, reflecting a tug-of-war between key sectors. Banco do Brasil’s stock rose despite disappointing Q2 earnings, buoyed by expectations of stronger future results.
Petrobras shares declined for a fourth consecutive session, pressured by falling global oil prices. Vale also weakened due to softer iron ore prices in Asia, underscoring global market influences.
Marfrig surged 8% after strong Q2 earnings and optimism around its merger with BRF. Trading volumes remained steady, indicating balanced activity among institutional and retail investors.
U.S. Markets on Friday
U.S. stocks pulled back slightly from record highs on Friday, August 15, 2025, driven by declines in technology stocks.
The S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 6,449.80, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.1% to 44,946.12, and the Nasdaq composite dropped 0.4% to 21,622.98.
UnitedHealth Group gained after Berkshire Hathaway’s purchase of nearly 5 million shares, while Applied Materials fell due to concerns over its China business. Treasury yields rose amid mixed U.S. economic data, supporting a cautious market outlook.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The Brazilian real faced volatility as the U.S. dollar fluctuated, with USD/BRL dynamics driven by Federal Reserve rate cut expectations.
On Friday, August 15, 2025, the real’s value was pressured by ongoing U.S. trade tensions and a R$6 billion foreign capital outflow in July.
Today’s IGP-10 Inflation Index, BCB Focus Market Readout, and IBC-Br Economic Activity at 7:00 AM, 7:25 AM, and 8:00 AM EST (8:00 AM, 8:25 AM, and 9:00 AM BRT) will provide insights into inflation, market expectations, and economic activity, shaping currency stability.
Oil Prices
Oil prices weakened, with Brent crude futures dropping on Friday, August 15, 2025, amid global market uncertainty. Petrobras faced challenges as falling oil prices pressured its revenues, compounded by U.S. tariffs impacting Brazil’s oil exports.
Today’s U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index at 10:00 AM EST (11:00 AM BRT) will signal U.S. housing demand, influencing Petrobras’ outlook.
Gold Prices
Gold prices held steady at approximately $3,313.87 per ounce on Friday, August 15, 2025, as markets awaited clearer signals on global economic stability.
A stronger U.S. dollar and easing trade tensions slightly pressured gold. Today’s U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index at 10:00 AM EST (11:00 AM BRT) will guide safe-haven flows, impacting Brazil’s mining sector, including Vale.
Silver Prices
Silver prices remained stable near $38.50 per ounce on Friday, August 15, 2025, supported by strong ETF demand and tight supply conditions.
Today’s U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index at 10:00 AM EST (11:00 AM BRT) will influence industrial and safe-haven demand trends, affecting Brazil’s mining exports.
Copper Prices
Copper prices edged lower to approximately $4.11 per pound on Friday, August 15, 2025, pressured by U.S. tariff threats and weak Chinese demand. Today’s Chinese FDI at 6:00 AM EST (7:00 AM BRT) and U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index at 10:00 AM EST (11:00 AM BRT) will clarify industrial demand, impacting Vale’s outlook.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin consolidated near $117,900 on Friday, August 15, 2025, as weak ETF flows weighed on crypto markets. Resistance was noted at $118,200, with support at $116,800, and no significant buying or selling pressure was observed.
Today’s U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index at 10:00 AM EST (11:00 AM BRT) will shape market sentiment, impacting Brazil’s fintech sector, including Mercado Livre and XP Inc.
Iron Ore Prices
Iron ore prices for 62% Fe, CFR China, remained steady at approximately $99.25 per ton on Friday, August 15, 2025, amid weak Chinese property sector demand and elevated port inventories of 147 million tons.
Today’s Chinese FDI at 6:00 AM EST (7:00 AM BRT) and U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index at 10:00 AM EST (11:00 AM BRT) will signal demand trends, affecting Vale’s performance.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s commodity-driven economy faces headwinds from the 15% Selic rate, increasing borrowing costs for exporters and domestic firms, particularly in retail and construction.
The projected fiscal deficit and 76.6% debt-to-GDP ratio, combined with U.S. tariffs, threaten export revenues and economic stability.
Today’s IGP-10 Inflation Index, BCB Focus Market Readout, IBC-Br Economic Activity, and U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index will shape demand and sentiment for Brazil’s key industries, including mining, energy, and agriculture. Below are key developments impacting the market:
U.S. Tariffs Impacting Exports: The 50% U.S. tariffs, effective August 6, 2025, risk R$175 billion in export revenues, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing, contributing to cautious market sentiment.
Sector Tug-of-War: Banco do Brasil gained despite weak Q2 earnings, driven by optimism for future results, while Petrobras and Vale weakened due to falling oil and iron ore prices. Marfrig surged 8% after strong Q2 results and merger optimism with BRF.
Corporate Earnings Highlights: Q2 2025 results showed resilience in some sectors. IRB Brasil Resseguros, Grupo CBO, and Alliança Saúde reported varied performances, with shipping and healthcare showing strength.
Ser Educacional and Vulcabras posted solid results, while LWSA faced challenges. Biomm, Metalfrio, and Panvel demonstrated resilience in pharma and retail.
Explanation of EST
Eastern Standard Time (EST) is the time zone used in the eastern United States, including New York, Washington, D.C., and Miami, set at UTC-5, five hours behind Coordinated Universal Time (UTC).
EST is applied here for consistency, aligning with U.S. financial market schedules, influencing global trading.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+1.63%
170,656.00
+1.63%
64,349.80
+0.55%
11,339.66
+0.91%
2,931,172
+1.92%
2,454.74
+0.43%
58,698.13
+1.62%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 170,656.00 | +1.63% | +21.85% | 167,927.15 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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