Argentina Stock Market Falls 1.44% as New Fed Chair and US Inflation Hit Emerging Markets
Merval Argentina today reflects Friday’s 1.44% drop to 2,707,868.63, breaking the 2,750K floor that held twice in May. Trigger: Warsh Fed and US April CPI 3.8% lifted the 10Y to 4.55%, hitting the highest-multiple market in LatAm. The index closed below the 200-DMA at 2,701,583.
The Big Three
Merval closed Friday at 2,707,868.63 (−1.44%, −39,441 points), breaking the 2,749,913 floor that held twice in May. Trigger: Warsh Fed handover and US April CPI 3.8% YoY (highest since May 2023). The 10Y jumped 9bp to 4.55%. CME FedWatch repriced 2026 from a 48% June cut to a 45% hike probability.
Argentina runs the highest forward P/E in LatAm at 19.8x (vs Ibovespa 13.4x, BMV 15.9x). When US real yields blow out, the steepest re-rating hits the richest book first. The Warsh shock landed on a Merval already digesting an April CPI that printed above the 3% threshold the bulls needed.
RSI fast 38.88, slow 44.22 — deeper oversold than May 6 and May 11 floor tests. MACD histogram −14,628, still bearish but narrowing. Friday’s close sits 13.5 points below the 200-DMA at 2,701,583, the line defining the post-midterm uptrend.
03 Why It Sold Off
External Trigger: Warsh Fed and the highest-multiple problem
Kevin Warsh took the Fed Chair Friday; markets read him hawkish. April CPI 3.8% Wednesday and a PPI spike framed the handover. The 10Y jumped 9bp to 4.55%. CME FedWatch repriced June cut odds from 48% to under 8%; 2026 hike probability from 1% to 45%. Argentina at 19.8x forward P/E took the steepest re-rating in LatAm.
Local Overhang: CPI binary, reform-premium fatigue
April INDEC CPI on May 14 was the local binary. A sub-3% print would have revalidated disinflation and unlocked the 2,895K cloud top; the print came in too high and confirmed the March 3.4% spike was not seasonal. BCRA reserves have climbed but country risk is still anchored near 500bps — the line for private market access remains contested. The 2026 maturity wall (US$19B+) still requires either a print breakthrough or a swap drawdown.
Key Facts
— The 2,749,913 floor that held twice in May broke Friday — once is a test, twice is support, three times is regime change. The Merval enters this week below the 200-DMA. YPF and Galicia, the index heavyweights, took the brunt: financials suffer when US yields rise and tighten the Fed-BCRA differential; energy names ran into a Brent fade.
— The contrarian read sits in momentum. RSI 38.88 is deeper oversold than May 6 (which produced a 4.42% reversal) or May 11. MACD histogram is narrowing despite price falling — classic positive divergence. The soybean inflow window and US$20B swap remain backstops. The level matters more than the entry: below 2,701,583 invalidates the structural uptrend.
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Argentina — Live Market Board
-1.29%
185,229.17
-0.41%
63,375.93
-0.78%
11,381.18
+1.30%
3,021,926
-1.29%
2,548.22
+1.05%
60,023.65
-1.13%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 3,021,926 | -1.29% | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| YPF | 7,810 | +0.26% | +72.84% | 7,790 | 7,850 | 7,600 | 1,763,858 |
| GGAL | 6,980 | -0.78% | +1.82% | 7,035 | 7,115 | 6,920 | 1,564,062 |
| PAMPA | 5,115 | +0.69% | +26.70% | 5,080 | 5,140 | 5,000 | 721,190 |
| TXAR | 747.50 | -2.35% | +18.67% | 765.50 | 770.00 | 742.50 | 771,892 |
| ALUAR | 938.00 | -1.21% | +29.83% | 949.50 | 951.00 | 932.50 | 135,426 |
| TGS | 8,870 | -0.17% | +15.05% | 8,885 | 9,075 | 8,720 | 143,546 |
| CEPU | 2,156 | +1.84% | +28.36% | 2,117 | 2,165 | 2,086 | 404,146 |
| MIRGOR | 1,650 | -1.20% | -92.90% | 1,670 | 1,670 | 1,635 | 20,877 |
| COME | 40.93 | -0.73% | -30.47% | 41.23 | 41.60 | 40.50 | 4,258,884 |
| LOMA NEGRA | 3,130 | +0.08% | +5.80% | 3,128 | 3,205 | 3,090 | 182,992 |
| BYMA | 275.00 | -1.70% | +35.14% | 279.75 | 282.50 | 272.00 | 1,409,575 |
| TELECOM ARG | 4,233 | -0.70% | +55.19% | 4,263 | 4,335 | 4,160 | 31,896 |
| GLOBANT | 38.10 | -2.26% | -49.65% | 38.98 | 38.70 | 36.77 | 793,552 |
| MERCADOLIBRE | 1,870 | -3.59% | -20.71% | 1,940 | 1,927 | 1,870 | 329,640 |
05 Technical Snapshot
Merval closed Friday at 2,707,869, below the 200-DMA (2,701,583) on a daily-close basis after the session low pierced to 2,698,659. The 50-DMA at 2,784,852 and Kijun at 2,795,565 sit ~3% overhead. Lower Bollinger 2,613,746 is the next floor, 3.5% below spot. MACD histogram −14,628, line −18,708 vs signal −33,336 — bearish but narrowing. RSI fast 38.88, slow 44.22 — deeper oversold than the May 6 and May 11 floor tests, leaves room for a mechanical bounce.
06 Forward Look
07 Questions & Answers
Key Facts
— Friday’s 1.44% drop broke the 2,749,913 floor and closed 13.5 points below the 200-DMA. External trigger — Warsh Fed, CPI 3.8%, 10Y at one-year high — hit LatAm’s highest-multiple market hardest. The Milei reform premium is tested at its structural support. RSI 38.88 sits deeper oversold than the May 6/11 lows.
— Related: Merval CPI binary: prior floor test · IPC Mexico hit by same wave · COLCAP catches the cascade.
— Key level: 2,701,583 (200-DMA). Above and the structural uptrend holds; below and the Bolling at 2,613,746 becomes magnet.
Disclaimer: This report is editorial market analysis based on publicly available data. It is not investment advice. Markets carry risk; consult a licensed professional before trading.
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