Argentina Stock Market Falls 1.44% as New Fed Chair and US Inflation Hit Emerging Markets
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Argentina Live Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 2,707,869 | -1.44% | +17.81% | 2,747,310 | — | — | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,395 | -0.04% | +22.39% | 1,395 | 1,395 | 1,395 | — |
| YPF | 65,000 | -0.46% | +55.60% | 65,300 | 66,750 | 64,550 | 118,892 |
| GGAL | 6,060 | -2.02% | -15.39% | 6,185 | 6,160 | 6,000 | 2,173,468 |
| PAMPA | 4,720 | -0.26% | +23.24% | 4,733 | 4,820 | 4,683 | 451,039 |
| TXAR | 615.00 | +0.49% | -0.16% | 612.00 | 623.00 | 593.00 | 900,627 |
| ALUAR | 940.50 | -0.42% | +37.43% | 944.50 | 942.00 | 922.00 | 188,211 |
| TGS | 8,750 | -0.62% | +20.19% | 8,805 | 8,875 | 8,650 | 149,122 |
| CEPU | 2,049 | -3.17% | +32.43% | 2,116 | 2,126 | 2,040 | 443,264 |
| MIRGOR | 17,225 | -3.23% | -29.69% | 17,800 | 17,775 | 16,900 | 5,316 |
| COME | 42.52 | -1.51% | -45.15% | 43.17 | 43.44 | 42.00 | 5,240,585 |
| LOMA NEGRA | 3,105 | -1.82% | +8.76% | 3,163 | 3,240 | 3,075 | 144,578 |
| BYMA | 272.25 | -2.77% | +34.48% | 280.00 | 283.75 | 270.25 | 2,624,962 |
| TELECOM ARG | 3,505 | -4.24% | +36.17% | 3,660 | 3,698 | 3,495 | 145,349 |
| GLOBANT | 38.87 | +14.06% | -61.65% | 34.08 | 40.46 | 37.12 | 6,457,228 |
| MERCADOLIBRE | 1,547 | -3.77% | -40.16% | 1,607 | 1,594 | 1,538 | 617,126 |
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Merval Argentina today reflects Friday’s 1.44% drop to 2,707,868.63, breaking the 2,750K floor that held twice in May. Trigger: Warsh Fed and US April CPI 3.8% lifted the 10Y to 4.55%, hitting the highest-multiple market in LatAm. The index closed below the 200-DMA at 2,701,583.
The Big Three
Merval closed Friday at 2,707,868.63 (−1.44%, −39,441 points), breaking the 2,749,913 floor that held twice in May. Trigger: Warsh Fed handover and US April CPI 3.8% YoY (highest since May 2023). The 10Y jumped 9bp to 4.55%. CME FedWatch repriced 2026 from a 48% June cut to a 45% hike probability.
Argentina runs the highest forward P/E in LatAm at 19.8x (vs Ibovespa 13.4x, BMV 15.9x). When US real yields blow out, the steepest re-rating hits the richest book first. The Warsh shock landed on a Merval already digesting an April CPI that printed above the 3% threshold the bulls needed.
RSI fast 38.88, slow 44.22 — deeper oversold than May 6 and May 11 floor tests. MACD histogram −14,628, still bearish but narrowing. Friday’s close sits 13.5 points below the 200-DMA at 2,701,583, the line defining the post-midterm uptrend.
02 Session Data
| Metric | Value | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merval close | 2,707,868.63 | −1.44% | Floor broken |
| Intraday range | 2,698,659 – 2,754,222 | 55,563 pts | Open at high, close near low |
| 200-DMA | 2,701,583 | Pierced | Structural uptrend line |
| RSI fast / slow | 38.88 / 44.22 | Oversold | Deeper than May 6/11 |
| MACD histogram | −14,628 | Narrowing | Signal turning |
| US 10Y yield | 4.55% | +9 bp | One-year high |
| Country risk | ~500 bps | Threshold | Private market access line |
03 Why It Sold Off
External Trigger: Warsh Fed and the highest-multiple problem
Kevin Warsh took the Fed Chair Friday; markets read him hawkish. April CPI 3.8% Wednesday and a PPI spike framed the handover. The 10Y jumped 9bp to 4.55%. CME FedWatch repriced June cut odds from 48% to under 8%; 2026 hike probability from 1% to 45%. Argentina at 19.8x forward P/E took the steepest re-rating in LatAm.
Local Overhang: CPI binary, reform-premium fatigue
April INDEC CPI on May 14 was the local binary. A sub-3% print would have revalidated disinflation and unlocked the 2,895K cloud top; the print came in too high and confirmed the March 3.4% spike was not seasonal. BCRA reserves have climbed but country risk is still anchored near 500bps — the line for private market access remains contested. The 2026 maturity wall (US$19B+) still requires either a print breakthrough or a swap drawdown.
§04 · Market Commentary
The 2,749,913 floor that held twice in May broke Friday — once is a test, twice is support, three times is regime change. The Merval enters this week below the 200-DMA. YPF and Galicia, the index heavyweights, took the brunt: financials suffer when US yields rise and tighten the Fed-BCRA differential; energy names ran into a Brent fade.
The contrarian read sits in momentum. RSI 38.88 is deeper oversold than May 6 (which produced a 4.42% reversal) or May 11. MACD histogram is narrowing despite price falling — classic positive divergence. The soybean inflow window and US$20B swap remain backstops. The level matters more than the entry: below 2,701,583 invalidates the structural uptrend.
05 Technical Snapshot
Merval closed Friday at 2,707,869, below the 200-DMA (2,701,583) on a daily-close basis after the session low pierced to 2,698,659. The 50-DMA at 2,784,852 and Kijun at 2,795,565 sit ~3% overhead. Lower Bollinger 2,613,746 is the next floor, 3.5% below spot. MACD histogram −14,628, line −18,708 vs signal −33,336 — bearish but narrowing. RSI fast 38.88, slow 44.22 — deeper oversold than the May 6 and May 11 floor tests, leaves room for a mechanical bounce.
06 Forward Look
07 Questions & Answers
Verdict
Friday’s 1.44% drop broke the 2,749,913 floor and closed 13.5 points below the 200-DMA. External trigger — Warsh Fed, CPI 3.8%, 10Y at one-year high — hit LatAm’s highest-multiple market hardest. The Milei reform premium is tested at its structural support. RSI 38.88 sits deeper oversold than the May 6/11 lows.
Related: Merval CPI binary: prior floor test · IPC Mexico hit by same wave · COLCAP catches the cascade.
Key level: 2,701,583 (200-DMA). Above and the structural uptrend holds; below and the Bolling at 2,613,746 becomes magnet.
Disclaimer: This report is editorial market analysis based on publicly available data. It is not investment advice. Markets carry risk; consult a licensed professional before trading.
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