Argentina Stock Market Falls 1.44% as New Fed Chair and US Inflation Hit Emerging Markets
Merval Argentina today reflects Friday’s 1.44% drop to 2,707,868.63, breaking the 2,750K floor that held twice in May. Trigger: Warsh Fed and US April CPI 3.8% lifted the 10Y to 4.55%, hitting the highest-multiple market in LatAm. The index closed below the 200-DMA at 2,701,583.
The Big Three
Merval closed Friday at 2,707,868.63 (−1.44%, −39,441 points), breaking the 2,749,913 floor that held twice in May. Trigger: Warsh Fed handover and US April CPI 3.8% YoY (highest since May 2023). The 10Y jumped 9bp to 4.55%. CME FedWatch repriced 2026 from a 48% June cut to a 45% hike probability.
Argentina runs the highest forward P/E in LatAm at 19.8x (vs Ibovespa 13.4x, BMV 15.9x). When US real yields blow out, the steepest re-rating hits the richest book first. The Warsh shock landed on a Merval already digesting an April CPI that printed above the 3% threshold the bulls needed.
RSI fast 38.88, slow 44.22 — deeper oversold than May 6 and May 11 floor tests. MACD histogram −14,628, still bearish but narrowing. Friday’s close sits 13.5 points below the 200-DMA at 2,701,583, the line defining the post-midterm uptrend.
03 Why It Sold Off
External Trigger: Warsh Fed and the highest-multiple problem
Kevin Warsh took the Fed Chair Friday; markets read him hawkish. April CPI 3.8% Wednesday and a PPI spike framed the handover. The 10Y jumped 9bp to 4.55%. CME FedWatch repriced June cut odds from 48% to under 8%; 2026 hike probability from 1% to 45%. Argentina at 19.8x forward P/E took the steepest re-rating in LatAm.
Local Overhang: CPI binary, reform-premium fatigue
April INDEC CPI on May 14 was the local binary. A sub-3% print would have revalidated disinflation and unlocked the 2,895K cloud top; the print came in too high and confirmed the March 3.4% spike was not seasonal. BCRA reserves have climbed but country risk is still anchored near 500bps — the line for private market access remains contested. The 2026 maturity wall (US$19B+) still requires either a print breakthrough or a swap drawdown.
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Argentina — Live Market Board
+0.00%
173,325.65
-0.03%
66,709.60
+0.88%
10,954.04
+0.52%
3,281,979
+0.00%
2,301.34
+0.13%
56,620.35
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 3,281,979 | +0.00% | +60.69% | 3,223,652 | — | — | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,475 | -0.19% | +15.78% | 1,478 | 1,478 | 1,475 | — |
| YPF | 80,625 | +1.80% | +104.63% | 79,200 | 80,975 | 79,250 | 250,509 |
| GGAL | 7,965 | +1.53% | +31.87% | 7,845 | 8,085 | 7,870 | 1,318,202 |
| PAMPA | 5,475 | +3.89% | +52.72% | 5,270 | 5,525 | 5,280 | 1,625,805 |
| TXAR | 679.00 | +1.27% | +7.61% | 670.50 | 680.00 | 662.00 | 1,306,506 |
| ALUAR | 973.00 | +1.41% | +37.43% | 959.50 | 974.00 | 960.00 | 262,563 |
| TGS | 9,710 | +2.21% | +47.12% | 9,500 | 9,895 | 9,415 | 223,685 |
| CEPU | 2,340 | +2.23% | +60.27% | 2,289 | 2,360 | 2,256 | 639,369 |
| MIRGOR | 16,775 | -2.04% | -21.34% | 17,125 | 17,075 | 16,600 | 6,365 |
| COME | 42.87 | -0.19% | -13.13% | 42.95 | 43.50 | 42.75 | 12,256,398 |
| LOMA NEGRA | 3,605 | +0.91% | +31.57% | 3,573 | 3,650 | 3,480 | 180,198 |
| BYMA | 292.25 | -0.51% | +53.41% | 293.75 | 296.75 | 291.50 | 4,559,784 |
| TELECOM ARG | 4,255 | +2.65% | +83.41% | 4,145 | 4,270 | 4,093 | 65,941 |
| GLOBANT | 32.10 | -0.59% | -63.93% | 32.29 | 32.76 | 31.29 | 1,073,497 |
| MERCADOLIBRE | 1,823 | -0.53% | -23.57% | 1,832 | 1,840 | 1,798 | 257,651 |
§04 · Market Commentary
The 2,749,913 floor that held twice in May broke Friday — once is a test, twice is support, three times is regime change. The Merval enters this week below the 200-DMA. YPF and Galicia, the index heavyweights, took the brunt: financials suffer when US yields rise and tighten the Fed-BCRA differential; energy names ran into a Brent fade.
The contrarian read sits in momentum. RSI 38.88 is deeper oversold than May 6 (which produced a 4.42% reversal) or May 11. MACD histogram is narrowing despite price falling — classic positive divergence. The soybean inflow window and US$20B swap remain backstops. The level matters more than the entry: below 2,701,583 invalidates the structural uptrend.
05 Technical Snapshot
Merval closed Friday at 2,707,869, below the 200-DMA (2,701,583) on a daily-close basis after the session low pierced to 2,698,659. The 50-DMA at 2,784,852 and Kijun at 2,795,565 sit ~3% overhead. Lower Bollinger 2,613,746 is the next floor, 3.5% below spot. MACD histogram −14,628, line −18,708 vs signal −33,336 — bearish but narrowing. RSI fast 38.88, slow 44.22 — deeper oversold than the May 6 and May 11 floor tests, leaves room for a mechanical bounce.
06 Forward Look
07 Questions & Answers
Verdict
Friday’s 1.44% drop broke the 2,749,913 floor and closed 13.5 points below the 200-DMA. External trigger — Warsh Fed, CPI 3.8%, 10Y at one-year high — hit LatAm’s highest-multiple market hardest. The Milei reform premium is tested at its structural support. RSI 38.88 sits deeper oversold than the May 6/11 lows.
Related: Merval CPI binary: prior floor test · IPC Mexico hit by same wave · COLCAP catches the cascade.
Key level: 2,701,583 (200-DMA). Above and the structural uptrend holds; below and the Bolling at 2,613,746 becomes magnet.
Disclaimer: This report is editorial market analysis based on publicly available data. It is not investment advice. Markets carry risk; consult a licensed professional before trading.
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