Argentina Stock Market Falls 1.44% as New Fed Chair and US Inflation Hit Emerging Markets
Merval Argentina today reflects Friday’s 1.44% drop to 2,707,868.63, breaking the 2,750K floor that held twice in May. Trigger: Warsh Fed and US April CPI 3.8% lifted the 10Y to 4.55%, hitting the highest-multiple market in LatAm. The index closed below the 200-DMA at 2,701,583.
The Big Three
Merval closed Friday at 2,707,868.63 (−1.44%, −39,441 points), breaking the 2,749,913 floor that held twice in May. Trigger: Warsh Fed handover and US April CPI 3.8% YoY (highest since May 2023). The 10Y jumped 9bp to 4.55%. CME FedWatch repriced 2026 from a 48% June cut to a 45% hike probability.
Argentina runs the highest forward P/E in LatAm at 19.8x (vs Ibovespa 13.4x, BMV 15.9x). When US real yields blow out, the steepest re-rating hits the richest book first. The Warsh shock landed on a Merval already digesting an April CPI that printed above the 3% threshold the bulls needed.
RSI fast 38.88, slow 44.22 — deeper oversold than May 6 and May 11 floor tests. MACD histogram −14,628, still bearish but narrowing. Friday’s close sits 13.5 points below the 200-DMA at 2,701,583, the line defining the post-midterm uptrend.
03 Why It Sold Off
External Trigger: Warsh Fed and the highest-multiple problem
Kevin Warsh took the Fed Chair Friday; markets read him hawkish. April CPI 3.8% Wednesday and a PPI spike framed the handover. The 10Y jumped 9bp to 4.55%. CME FedWatch repriced June cut odds from 48% to under 8%; 2026 hike probability from 1% to 45%. Argentina at 19.8x forward P/E took the steepest re-rating in LatAm.
Local Overhang: CPI binary, reform-premium fatigue
April INDEC CPI on May 14 was the local binary. A sub-3% print would have revalidated disinflation and unlocked the 2,895K cloud top; the print came in too high and confirmed the March 3.4% spike was not seasonal. BCRA reserves have climbed but country risk is still anchored near 500bps — the line for private market access remains contested. The 2026 maturity wall (US$19B+) still requires either a print breakthrough or a swap drawdown.
Key Facts
— The 2,749,913 floor that held twice in May broke Friday — once is a test, twice is support, three times is regime change. The Merval enters this week below the 200-DMA. YPF and Galicia, the index heavyweights, took the brunt: financials suffer when US yields rise and tighten the Fed-BCRA differential; energy names ran into a Brent fade.
— The contrarian read sits in momentum. RSI 38.88 is deeper oversold than May 6 (which produced a 4.42% reversal) or May 11. MACD histogram is narrowing despite price falling — classic positive divergence. The soybean inflow window and US$20B swap remain backstops. The level matters more than the entry: below 2,701,583 invalidates the structural uptrend.
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Argentina — Live Market Board
—
172,060.43
+0.42%
72,006.05
+0.16%
10,552.02
-0.43%
2,848,945
—
2,486.39
-1.65%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 2,848,945 | — | -10.97% | 2,859,051 | — | — | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,544 | -0.11% | +9.51% | 1,546 | 1,544 | 1,544 | — |
| YPF | 6,220 | -3.64% | +10.88% | 6,455 | 6,390 | 6,155 | 2,052,860 |
| GGAL | 4,955 | +0.81% | -38.89% | 4,915 | 5,120 | 4,905 | 1,698,792 |
| PAMPA | 4,255 | -0.41% | -18.32% | 4,273 | 4,343 | 4,210 | 1,131,629 |
| TXAR | 684.00 | -2.08% | -20.44% | 698.50 | 719.00 | 671.00 | 1,287,280 |
| ALUAR | 768.00 | -0.78% | -31.85% | 774.00 | 790.00 | 757.00 | 244,634 |
| TGS | 7,070 | -2.08% | -22.56% | 7,220 | 7,350 | 7,000 | 374,322 |
| CEPU | 1,672 | +0.54% | -23.15% | 1,663 | 1,723 | 1,664 | 649,161 |
| MIRGOR | 1,740 | +0.00% | -92.26% | 1,740 | 1,780 | 1,670 | 81,440 |
| COME | 32.09 | +3.35% | -54.20% | 31.05 | 34.00 | 30.70 | 8,963,563 |
| LOMA NEGRA | 2,930 | +0.17% | -13.05% | 2,925 | 2,990 | 2,870 | 170,486 |
| BYMA | 199.00 | +0.38% | -30.58% | 198.25 | 202.75 | 195.00 | 7,800,352 |
| TELECOM ARG | 3,455 | +3.06% | -2.97% | 3,353 | 3,550 | 3,390 | 158,864 |
| GLOBANT | 46.34 | -5.06% | -24.98% | 48.81 | 47.62 | 46.08 | 1,016,987 |
| MERCADOLIBRE | 1,512 | +1.46% | -28.13% | 1,490 | 1,512 | 1,465 | 594,946 |
05 Technical Snapshot
Merval closed Friday at 2,707,869, below the 200-DMA (2,701,583) on a daily-close basis after the session low pierced to 2,698,659. The 50-DMA at 2,784,852 and Kijun at 2,795,565 sit ~3% overhead. Lower Bollinger 2,613,746 is the next floor, 3.5% below spot. MACD histogram −14,628, line −18,708 vs signal −33,336 — bearish but narrowing. RSI fast 38.88, slow 44.22 — deeper oversold than the May 6 and May 11 floor tests, leaves room for a mechanical bounce.
06 Forward Look
07 Questions & Answers
Key Facts
— Friday’s 1.44% drop broke the 2,749,913 floor and closed 13.5 points below the 200-DMA. External trigger — Warsh Fed, CPI 3.8%, 10Y at one-year high — hit LatAm’s highest-multiple market hardest. The Milei reform premium is tested at its structural support. RSI 38.88 sits deeper oversold than the May 6/11 lows.
— Related: Merval CPI binary: prior floor test · IPC Mexico hit by same wave · COLCAP catches the cascade.
— Key level: 2,701,583 (200-DMA). Above and the structural uptrend holds; below and the Bolling at 2,613,746 becomes magnet.
Disclaimer: This report is editorial market analysis based on publicly available data. It is not investment advice. Markets carry risk; consult a licensed professional before trading.
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