COLCAP Falls 0.98% to 2,101 as Warsh Fed Transition and CPI Shock Hit Colombian Equities
The Colombia stock market closed Friday at 2,101.08 (−0.98%), giving back Thursday’s Ecopetrol rally as the Warsh Fed transition and CPI 3.8% shock crushed EM risk. The index opened 2,121.95, tested 2,131.17 intraday, then collapsed to 2,092.28. RSI fast 36.08 is the deepest oversold since March; index sits 1.1% above the 2,043 cloud floor. May 31 first round is 13 days away.
The Big Three
COLCAP closed Friday at 2,101.08 (−0.98%) — worst close since early March, full reversal of Thursday’s +2.34% Ecopetrol Q1 bounce. External trigger: US April CPI 3.8% YoY (highest since May 2023), 10Y yields jumping 9bp to 4.55% per CNBC. CME FedWatch repriced 1% → 45% for a 2026 hike. Colombian equities — pressured by election risk and BanRep’s 11.75% — caught in the cascade.
USD/COP closed Friday at 3,779 (−0.35% — peso firmer). The peso has been LatAm’s resilient currency, anchored by BanRep’s 11.75% — the highest in Latin America. Foreign capital rotates into local fixed income, not equities. Q1 2026 FDI fell 9.1% YoY to $2.13B — lowest since 2021.
May 31 first round is 13 days away. Cepeda (Pacto Histórico) leads at 44.3% per Invamer April 26; De la Espriella 21.5%; Valencia 19.8%. AtlasIntel mid-May: Cepeda 37.4%, De la Espriella 29.4%. Polymarket shifted to De la Espriella. Cepeda win extends Petro’s tax trajectory; right-wing win triggers correction rally. June 21 runoff math dominates COLCAP risk.
02 Session Data
| Metric | Value | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| COLCAP close | 2,101.08 | −0.98% | Worst since early March |
| Session high | 2,131.17 | — | Early bid faded |
| Session low | 2,092.28 | — | Lower-BB test at 2,087 |
| USD/COP | 3,779 | −0.35% | Peso firmer on carry |
| BanRep policy rate | 11.75% | — | Highest in LatAm |
| Q1 FDI | $2.13B | −9.1% YoY | Lowest since 2021 |
| Cepeda (Invamer) | 44.3% | — | Leads but short of 50% |
| 10Y Treasury (US) | 4.55% | +9 bp Fri | One-year high |
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03 Why It Sold Off
The External Trigger
Friday’s selloff was made in Washington, not Bogotá. US April CPI 3.8% YoY (above 3.7% consensus), biggest PPI spike since early 2022, 10Y yields jumping 9bp to 4.55% per CNBC. Warsh took the Fed Chair May 15; CME FedWatch assigns 45% for a 2026 hike. Colombia caught with Brazil, Mexico.
The Local Overhang
Election uncertainty compounds rates pressure. Cepeda’s 44.3% means Petro continuity — high corporate taxes, Ecopetrol moratorium, fiscal deficit widening 6.2% → 7% per Anif. Cepeda wins both runoff scenarios; Valencia polls better head-to-head. Tax reform unavoidable post August 7.
Key Facts
— Thursday’s +2.34% Ecopetrol Q1 bounce — COP 2.9T income, 47% EBITDA — was 2026’s deepest oversold rebound. Friday gave it back. COLCAP fundamentals (BanRep carry, Ecopetrol earnings, oil windfall) generate bounces but cannot offset rate-reset and election overhang. Trajectory: 2,178 → 2,167 → 2,121 → 2,101.
— The peso tells the other side. USD/COP at 3,779 shows foreign capital rotating from equities into BanRep’s 11.75% carry. The rate supports the peso even as it punishes consumer and bank names. Q1 FDI $2.13B (−9.1% YoY) confirms equity flows declined four years. Until the runoff resolves policy, COLCAP is range-bound 2,043 → 2,175.
05 Technical Analysis
COLCAP closed Friday at 2,101.08 — below 20-DMA (2,130.92), Kijun (2,126.88), 50-DMA (~2,175). Lower BB 2,087.18 = support; cloud floor + 200-DMA at 2,043.79 = invalidation 2.7% below. MACD histogram −8.21, line −36.01 vs signal −44.21 — bearish widening. RSI fast 36.08, slow 35.05 — deeply oversold but not at March exhaustion (33.91). 2026 pattern: RSI <35 typically produces 1–3% bounce.
06 Forward Look
07 Questions & Answers
Key Facts
— Friday gave back the Ecopetrol bounce on a pure external trigger — Warsh Fed, CPI 3.8%, 10Y at one-year high. Local setup unchanged: BanRep’s 11.75% anchors the peso, but high corporate taxes, fiscal deficit widening to 7%, and election overhang keep equity exits structural. COLCAP at 2,101 sits 1.1% above the cloud floor. RSI 36.08 oversold, not at March exhaustion. 2026 pattern: RSI <35 produces 1–3% bounce within two sessions — tactical, not structural. May 31 and June 21 are the next binaries.
— Related: Thursday’s Ecopetrol Q1 rally · Brazil R$5 break · Gold and silver crash.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Equity markets carry significant risk of loss. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Published by The Rio Times.
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