COLCAP Falls 0.98% to 2,101 as Warsh Fed Transition and CPI Shock Hit Colombian Equities
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Colombia Live Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COLCAP | 2,118 | -0.22% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| USD/COP | 3,797 | -0.01% | -9.87% | 3,797 | 3,799 | 3,791 | — |
| BRENT | 110.70 | +1.32% | +68.90% | 109.26 | 112.03 | 109.61 | 8,628 |
| WTI | 102.62 | -2.66% | +63.69% | 105.42 | 104.37 | 101.57 | 61,347 |
| ECOPETROL | 13.11 | -0.87% | +52.21% | 13.22 | 13.44 | 12.92 | 2,267,621 |
| BANCOLOMBIA | 63.16 | -1.83% | +52.01% | 64.34 | 63.98 | 62.54 | 388,077 |
| GRUPO AVAL | 4.01 | -5.20% | +41.20% | 4.23 | 4.24 | 3.92 | 780,345 |
| TECNOGLASS | 38.61 | -5.90% | -55.20% | 41.03 | 40.79 | 38.50 | 332,338 |
| CREDICORP | 316.31 | -3.47% | +53.15% | 327.69 | 338.86 | 313.75 | 667,960 |
| BUENAVENTURA | 34.29 | -7.70% | +136.16% | 37.15 | 35.63 | 34.00 | 2,135,112 |
| SOUTHERN COPPER | 176.78 | -6.22% | +101.82% | 188.50 | 179.65 | 174.62 | 1,396,478 |
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The Colombia stock market closed Friday at 2,101.08 (−0.98%), giving back Thursday’s Ecopetrol rally as the Warsh Fed transition and CPI 3.8% shock crushed EM risk. The index opened 2,121.95, tested 2,131.17 intraday, then collapsed to 2,092.28. RSI fast 36.08 is the deepest oversold since March; index sits 1.1% above the 2,043 cloud floor. May 31 first round is 13 days away.
The Big Three
COLCAP closed Friday at 2,101.08 (−0.98%) — worst close since early March, full reversal of Thursday’s +2.34% Ecopetrol Q1 bounce. External trigger: US April CPI 3.8% YoY (highest since May 2023), 10Y yields jumping 9bp to 4.55% per CNBC. CME FedWatch repriced 1% → 45% for a 2026 hike. Colombian equities — pressured by election risk and BanRep’s 11.75% — caught in the cascade.
USD/COP closed Friday at 3,779 (−0.35% — peso firmer). The peso has been LatAm’s resilient currency, anchored by BanRep’s 11.75% — the highest in Latin America. Foreign capital rotates into local fixed income, not equities. Q1 2026 FDI fell 9.1% YoY to $2.13B — lowest since 2021.
May 31 first round is 13 days away. Cepeda (Pacto Histórico) leads at 44.3% per Invamer April 26; De la Espriella 21.5%; Valencia 19.8%. AtlasIntel mid-May: Cepeda 37.4%, De la Espriella 29.4%. Polymarket shifted to De la Espriella. Cepeda win extends Petro’s tax trajectory; right-wing win triggers correction rally. June 21 runoff math dominates COLCAP risk.
03 Why It Sold Off
The External Trigger
Friday’s selloff was made in Washington, not Bogotá. US April CPI 3.8% YoY (above 3.7% consensus), biggest PPI spike since early 2022, 10Y yields jumping 9bp to 4.55% per CNBC. Warsh took the Fed Chair May 15; CME FedWatch assigns 45% for a 2026 hike. Colombia caught with Brazil, Mexico.
The Local Overhang
Election uncertainty compounds rates pressure. Cepeda’s 44.3% means Petro continuity — high corporate taxes, Ecopetrol moratorium, fiscal deficit widening 6.2% → 7% per Anif. Cepeda wins both runoff scenarios; Valencia polls better head-to-head. Tax reform unavoidable post August 7.
§04 · Market Commentary
Thursday’s +2.34% Ecopetrol Q1 bounce — COP 2.9T income, 47% EBITDA — was 2026’s deepest oversold rebound. Friday gave it back. COLCAP fundamentals (BanRep carry, Ecopetrol earnings, oil windfall) generate bounces but cannot offset rate-reset and election overhang. Trajectory: 2,178 → 2,167 → 2,121 → 2,101.
The peso tells the other side. USD/COP at 3,779 shows foreign capital rotating from equities into BanRep’s 11.75% carry. The rate supports the peso even as it punishes consumer and bank names. Q1 FDI $2.13B (−9.1% YoY) confirms equity flows declined four years. Until the runoff resolves policy, COLCAP is range-bound 2,043 → 2,175.
05 Technical Analysis
COLCAP closed Friday at 2,101.08 — below 20-DMA (2,130.92), Kijun (2,126.88), 50-DMA (~2,175). Lower BB 2,087.18 = support; cloud floor + 200-DMA at 2,043.79 = invalidation 2.7% below. MACD histogram −8.21, line −36.01 vs signal −44.21 — bearish widening. RSI fast 36.08, slow 35.05 — deeply oversold but not at March exhaustion (33.91). 2026 pattern: RSI <35 typically produces 1–3% bounce.
06 Forward Look
07 Questions & Answers
Verdict
Friday gave back the Ecopetrol bounce on a pure external trigger — Warsh Fed, CPI 3.8%, 10Y at one-year high. Local setup unchanged: BanRep’s 11.75% anchors the peso, but high corporate taxes, fiscal deficit widening to 7%, and election overhang keep equity exits structural. COLCAP at 2,101 sits 1.1% above the cloud floor. RSI 36.08 oversold, not at March exhaustion. 2026 pattern: RSI <35 produces 1–3% bounce within two sessions — tactical, not structural. May 31 and June 21 are the next binaries.
Related: Thursday’s Ecopetrol Q1 rally · Brazil R$5 break · Gold and silver crash.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Equity markets carry significant risk of loss. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Published by The Rio Times.
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