Argentina Stock Market Rises 0.33% as Inflation Falls to 2.6%, Lowest in Five Months
The S&P Merval rose 0.33% to 2,747,310.05 on Thursday May 14, 2026 — a muted bounce despite the year’s most important domestic print. INDEC released April CPI at 2.6% MoM, lowest in five months and first sub-3% reading since May 2025. Core 2.3%. The print matched consensus (REM 2.6%) precisely, explaining the modest equity reaction.
The Big Three
The S&P Merval rose 0.33% (+8,955.56 points) to 2,747,310.05 — a modest bounce after Wednesday’s −1.96% capitulation break. Intraday range 2,736,542–2,775,576. The index recovered to within 2,603 points of the broken capitulation floor at 2,749,913 — the level is now contested rather than decisively broken.
INDEC delivered the disinflation breakthrough. April CPI MoM 2.6%, down from 3.4% in March — lowest in five months and first sub-3% since May 2025. Core fell to 2.3% from 3.2%, lowest since October. Annual 32.4% (from 32.6%). The reading matched consensus (REM 2.6%) — hence the muted equity reaction.
Finance Minister Caputo celebrated on X that this was the lowest April reading since 2017 (excluding 2020). Milei told AmCham inflation “will collapse” in coming months. The reading aligned with Wednesday’s BCRA Monetary Policy Report. The disinflation thesis got its first validation since the March 3.4% print.
03 Key Movers
Winners
The Milei-trade bank complex led the bounce. Banco Macro (BMA), Galicia (GGAL), and BBVA Argentina (BBAR) — the highest-beta disinflation proxies — recovered from Wednesday’s selloff. Energy held: YPF on Brent above US$108, Pampa (PAMP) and Vista (VIST) firm on Vaca Muerta. Telecom (TECO2) caught a bid as duration-sensitive names benefited from the CPI deceleration signal.
Losers
The list was narrow. Some utility and consumer-discretionary names gave back gains on profit-taking after the CPI release delivered no upside surprise. The 2.6% reading was constructive but not the print the bull case needed. Breadth was positive but incomplete relative to Wednesday’s −1.96% drop — the market wants more than a consensus-matching print.
Key Facts
— Thursday’s CPI was the most important domestic data point of 2026 to date. April CPI 2.6% MoM ended the four-month plateau above 3%; core 2.3% was the lowest since October; annual 32.4%. Caputo celebrated on X and Milei told AmCham inflation “will collapse” — political messaging is aligned with the data for the first time since the March disappointment.
— The muted equity response is the data point. The Merval rose only 0.33% on a textbook disinflation print because the result matched consensus. The bull case had priced sub-3%; sub-2.5% would have produced a real squeeze. The structural thesis is intact: BCRA reserve buying at ~5% of FX volume daily, US$20B IMF EFF backstop, 4.8% of GDP monetary base target. But YTD 12.3% is already above the 10.1% projection for 2026 — credibility requires May and June to deliver.
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Argentina — Live Market Board
-1.29%
185,229.17
-0.41%
63,375.93
-0.78%
11,381.18
+1.30%
3,021,926
-1.29%
2,548.22
+1.05%
60,023.65
-1.13%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 3,021,926 | -1.29% | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| YPF | 7,810 | +0.26% | +72.84% | 7,790 | 7,850 | 7,600 | 1,763,858 |
| GGAL | 6,980 | -0.78% | +1.82% | 7,035 | 7,115 | 6,920 | 1,564,062 |
| PAMPA | 5,115 | +0.69% | +26.70% | 5,080 | 5,140 | 5,000 | 721,190 |
| TXAR | 747.50 | -2.35% | +18.67% | 765.50 | 770.00 | 742.50 | 771,892 |
| ALUAR | 938.00 | -1.21% | +29.83% | 949.50 | 951.00 | 932.50 | 135,426 |
| TGS | 8,870 | -0.17% | +15.05% | 8,885 | 9,075 | 8,720 | 143,546 |
| CEPU | 2,156 | +1.84% | +28.36% | 2,117 | 2,165 | 2,086 | 404,146 |
| MIRGOR | 1,650 | -1.20% | -92.90% | 1,670 | 1,670 | 1,635 | 20,877 |
| COME | 40.93 | -0.73% | -30.47% | 41.23 | 41.60 | 40.50 | 4,258,884 |
| LOMA NEGRA | 3,130 | +0.08% | +5.80% | 3,128 | 3,205 | 3,090 | 182,992 |
| BYMA | 275.00 | -1.70% | +35.14% | 279.75 | 282.50 | 272.00 | 1,409,575 |
| TELECOM ARG | 4,233 | -0.70% | +55.19% | 4,263 | 4,335 | 4,160 | 31,896 |
| GLOBANT | 38.10 | -2.26% | -49.65% | 38.98 | 38.70 | 36.77 | 793,552 |
| MERCADOLIBRE | 1,870 | -3.59% | -20.71% | 1,940 | 1,927 | 1,870 | 329,640 |
05 Technical Analysis
The Merval closed at 2,747,310 — still below the broken capitulation floor at 2,749,913 by 2,603 points but recovered from Wednesday’s intraday low. MACD histogram −12,669, line −27,720 vs signal −15,051 — bearish crossover still deepening. RSI fast 41.82, slow 44.69, both still below 50 but recovering from Wednesday’s 40.88. The 200-DMA at 2,810,413 is the next overhead resistance; the trendline at 2,610,259 is the structural floor.
06 Forward Look
07 Questions & Answers
Key Facts
— The CPI broke the four-month plateau and disinflation starts to crystallize. Caputo’s celebration, Milei’s “inflation will collapse” framing, and the BCRA’s IPOM anticipation all align with the data for the first time since March. But the equity reaction was modest because the print delivered exactly what consensus expected. Technical structure is still bearish. May CPI in mid-June converts disinflation from event to regime.
— Related: Wednesday’s Merval capitulation · Brazil Q1 dispersion · Colombia Ecopetrol bounce.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Argentine equities carry elevated political, currency, and capital-controls risk. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Published by The Rio Times.
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