The Big Three
The S&P Merval fell 0.21% to 2,832,850.99 on Thursday — the second consecutive decline after the Adorni non-event — with the session low at 2,788,558.57 briefly piercing below the 200-day SMA (2,800,326) for the first time since the March correction. The index opened at 2,838,835, pushed to 2,857,257, then collapsed to 2,788,559 before recovering to close at 2,832,851 on the Kijun-sen / cloud bottom. The intraday breach of the 200-day SMA — even without a close below it — is a warning that the floor of the range is being tested more aggressively. The recovery from 2,788,559 to 2,832,851 (a 44,292-point reversal) confirms buying interest at the 200-SMA, but the fact that the index reached it at all — after not testing it since the March correction — shows the post-Adorni selling has pushed deeper than the three-session recovery that preceded it.
The MACD histogram re-widened to −16,561 from −16,444 — reversing the narrowing trajectory that had been the bull case through Tuesday. The MACD narrowing sequence (−17,356 → −16,907 → −15,788) that built during the three-session recovery has now reversed (−16,444 → −16,561) across two sessions of post-Adorni selling. RSI signal at 44.66 is the lowest since the correction began, well below 50 and still declining. The momentum picture has deteriorated from “cautiously recovering” to “range-bound with a bearish lean.” The Merval needs a close above the Tenkan-sen (2,872K) to restart the narrowing; anything at or below the Kijun (2,833K) keeps the histogram widening.
The range that has defined the Merval for three weeks is narrowing — and the April CPI print on May 14 is the data catalyst that will resolve it. The ceiling is the 21-EMA at 2,878K. The floor is the 50-SMA / 200-SMA confluence at 2,806K / 2,800K. The midpoint is the Kijun at 2,833K. The Merval has oscillated within this ~78,000-point band (2.7%) for sixteen sessions without a breakout in either direction. The PIIE’s analysis of Argentina’s monetary framework warns that “confidence could evaporate easily in the face of adverse events” — and the April CPI is the most important data point for testing that confidence. A reading below 3% would be the first in eleven months and would reopen the path to 3,000,000. A reading above 3% (eleventh consecutive month) would confirm the inflation re-acceleration that has eroded Milei’s 36% approval and targets the 200-SMA below.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| S&P Merval Close / Kijun / Cloud bottom | 2,832,850.99 | −0.21% (−5,983.69) |
| Session Low (200-SMA breach) | 2,788,558.57 | below 200-SMA — first since Mar |
| 50-day SMA | 2,806,426 | range floor |
| 200-day SMA (tested intraday) | 2,800,326 | intraday pierce, recovered |
| MACD histogram (re-widened) | −16,561 | from −16,444 (wider) |
| RSI signal | 44.66 | lowest of correction |
| 21-day EMA (ceiling) | 2,877,827 | 45K above close |
| Range width | ~78K pts (2.7%) | 21-EMA to 200-SMA |
| April CPI (range catalyst) | May 14 | 14 days |
02 Equities — The 200-SMA Warning
Merval Argentina today enters May with the range intact but the floor under pressure after the S&P Merval fell 0.21% on Thursday. This Argentina stock market report covers the session that produced the deepest intraday probe since the March correction — briefly piercing the 200-day SMA at 2,788,559 — before recovering to close on the Kijun. The 200-SMA breach is the most consequential intraday event since the April selloff began: it signals that the buying interest which sustained the Merval above the 50-SMA through three weeks of range trading is insufficient to prevent probes into the ultimate support zone. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Latin American equity markets.
The February–March correction precedent is relevant. In that correction, the Merval found its floor at the 200-day SMA (then near 2,700,000) and launched a recovery that eventually reached 2,955,991. Thursday’s intraday test of 2,788,559 — with a close back at 2,832,851 — mirrors the pattern of a market probing the ultimate support and finding it. But unlike February–March, the current test comes with the MACD re-widening and the RSI at its lowest signal of the correction (44.66). The momentum context is worse, even if the price pattern is constructive.
April ends with the Merval trapped in a 78,000-point range that has persisted for three weeks. The Adorni testimony passed without resolution. The MACD narrowing sequence reversed. The 200-SMA was breached intraday. The structural thesis (fiscal surplus, soybean harvest, Vaca Muerta, RIGI, IMF backstop) provides the floor; the 19.8x valuation, the corruption probe, and the inflation re-acceleration provide the ceiling. The April CPI on May 14 — 14 days away — is the data event that breaks the range.
03 Key Levels
| Level | S&P Merval |
| 21-day EMA (ceiling) | 2,877,827 |
| Tenkan-sen | 2,872,293 |
| Thursday Close / Kijun / Cloud bottom | 2,832,851 |
| 50-day SMA | 2,806,426 |
| 200-day SMA (tested intraday) | 2,800,326 |
04 Looking Ahead
May begins with the range intact. The Merval needs a close above 2,872K (Tenkan) to restart the MACD narrowing. A close below 2,800K (200-SMA) would break the range downward and target the March correction lows near 2,700K. The April CPI (May 14) is the binary data event. The soybean harvest peak continues. The $2 billion World Bank-backed loan and country risk at ~500 bps are the medium-term variables.
Key dates: May 14 — April INDEC CPI (below 3% = bullish; above 3% = eleventh month). April–May — peak soybean harvest. US$2B World Bank-backed loan. US$19B external debt maturities. Country risk ~500 bps.
05 Verdict
Thursday pushed the range to its floor. The intraday breach of the 200-day SMA — the first since March — and the close back on the Kijun at 2,832,851 produces the same pattern as the prior week: test support, find buyers, close at the midpoint. But the MACD has re-widened (−16,561), the RSI signal at 44.66 is the lowest of the correction, and the Adorni non-resolution continues to weigh. The range (21-EMA at 2,878K → 200-SMA at 2,800K) has held for three weeks. The April CPI on May 14 is the catalyst. Below 3% reopens 3,000,000. Above 3% targets the 200-SMA below.
Bias: Bearish lean within a range — 200-SMA tested, MACD widening, CPI in 14 days. The Merval at 2,833K is oscillating around the Kijun with the floor (50-SMA / 200-SMA at 2,800–2,806K) under increasing pressure. The structural thesis provides the bid; the valuation and political uncertainty provide the cap. April ends with 16 sessions of range-bound trading and no resolution. May needs the CPI to break the stalemate. Watch 2,800K below and 2,872K above.
Related coverage:
Adorni aftermath: Merval Falls 1.07% as Market Sells Adorni Non-Event
PIIE analysis: Argentina’s Fragile Monetary Framework Risks Renewed Volatility
Economy guide: Argentina Economy 2026: Complete Investor Guide
LatAm markets: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Complete Guide
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published by The Rio Times.