Vaca Muerta Can Supply Southern Cone Gas for 50 Years, Brazil Says

The Vaca Muerta gas potential has received its most authoritative endorsement yet — not from Buenos Aires, but from Brasília, in a bilateral technical report that lays out the infrastructure blueprint for regional energy integration.

The Rio Times, the Latin American financial news outlet, reports that Brazil’s Ministry of Mines and Energy published a bilateral working group report confirming that Argentina’s Vaca Muerta formation has sufficient reserves to supply Southern Cone natural gas demand for more than 50 years at competitive production costs. The document, produced by a Brazil-Argentina technical group established under a 2024 memorandum of understanding, identifies specific pipeline routes, investment requirements, and regulatory harmonization steps needed to make the gas flow.

The Vaca Muerta Gas Opportunity by the Numbers

Vaca Muerta currently produces over 125 million cubic meters of unconventional gas per day, a figure that industry analysts believe could triple. Argentine gas costs $5 to $5.50 per million BTU at the wellhead, while Brazilian industrial consumers pay $16 to $17 — a threefold price arbitrage that makes cross-border trade economically compelling even after transport costs.

The report’s preferred route is a new 593-kilometer, 24-inch pipeline from Uruguayana on the Argentine border to Triunfo in the Porto Alegre metropolitan area, at an estimated capital cost of $1.6 billion. This route would solve bottleneck problems in the existing GasBol pipeline from Bolivia and create a dedicated corridor for Argentine supply to southern Brazil’s industrial heartland.

Why This Matters Now

The Iran war has made energy security a strategic priority across Latin America. Bolivian gas exports to Brazil have been declining for years as Bolivia’s reserves deplete, leaving southern Brazilian states facing a supply gap that Vaca Muerta is uniquely positioned to fill. The first test shipments of Argentine gas reached Brazil earlier in 2026 via the existing GasBol system.

For Argentina, the energy export story extends beyond gas. The country recently broke records in energy exports overall, and the Rystad Energy consultancy projects Vaca Muerta could reach 1 million barrels of oil per day before 2030. The bilateral report adds a Brazilian government stamp to Argentina’s ambition to become South America’s dominant energy exporter — a role that would fundamentally reshape the region’s geopolitical balance.