Argentina’s Merval Breaks Recovery on Adorni Testimony Day
The Big Three
The S&P Merval fell 1.07% to 2,838,834.68 on Wednesday — Adorni testimony day — breaking the three-session recovery and pushing the index back to the cloud bottom / Kijun-sen confluence. The index opened at 2,869,560, reached 2,885,134 (briefly touching the 21-EMA), then sold off to a session low of 2,826,338 before closing at 2,838,835. Cabinet Chief Adorni told Congress “I have committed no crime and I will prove it in court,” with Milei and the full cabinet attending in solidarity — but the market sold the event. The prior report identified Scenario B (political damage → retest cloud bottom and 50-SMA) as the risk; Wednesday delivered it. The MACD narrowing sequence that had been building (−17,356 → −16,907 → −15,788) reversed to −16,444.
Adorni’s six-hour Congressional session produced no forced resignation — but the market’s verdict was sell. The Buenos Aires Times reported the session was “more focused on his private life than public administration.” Adorni deflected personal-finance questions by arguing the matter is before the courts, committed to filing updated asset declarations by July 31, and defended his wife’s New York trip as having been “clarified in court.” Milei shouted “You are the corrupt ones” at journalists entering Congress. The Buenos Aires Herald noted that the government filed 2,000 pages of answers to 2,151 questions at 8 AM — giving lawmakers no time to read them before the session began. The market’s reading: no resignation, but no resolution either. The corruption probe continues, the political damage accumulates, and the 19.8x P/E cannot absorb ongoing governance uncertainty.
The close at 2,838,835 returns the Merval to the Kijun-sen / cloud bottom confluence — the gravitational center that has defined the past two weeks of trading. The session high at 2,885,134 briefly touched the 21-EMA area before reversing, confirming that level as the ceiling. The session low at 2,826,338 approached the 50-day SMA (2,812,422), confirming that level as the floor. The Merval’s range is now defined: 21-EMA (2,882K) above, 50-SMA (2,812K) below, with the Kijun/cloud bottom (2,839K) as the midpoint. The MACD’s reversal from narrowing to widening (−15,788 → −16,444) means the nascent recovery thesis has been interrupted — but not destroyed. A single session above the Tenkan (2,879K) would restart the narrowing sequence.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| S&P Merval Close / Kijun / Cloud bottom | 2,838,834.68 | −1.07% (−30,725.64) |
| Session High (21-EMA test) | 2,885,133.80 | rejected at EMA |
| Session Low (50-SMA approach) | 2,826,338.02 | 14K above 50-SMA |
| MACD histogram (reversed) | −16,444 | from −15,788 (widened) |
| RSI signal | 45.30 | below 50 |
| 50-day SMA (support) | 2,812,422 | 26K below close |
| 200-day SMA | 2,808,804 | 30K below close |
| Adorni testimony | COMPLETED | no resignation, no resolution |
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+2.20%
173,107.90
-0.15%
66,125.27
-0.74%
10,963.36
+0.61%
3,294,537
+2.20%
2,319.30
+0.91%
56,620.35
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 3,294,537 | +2.20% | +60.23% | 3,223,652 | 3,300,186 | 3,223,652 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,478 | -0.27% | +15.91% | 1,482 | 1,481 | 1,470 | — |
| YPF | 80,300 | +1.39% | +103.81% | 79,200 | 80,975 | 79,250 | 215,593 |
| GGAL | 7,935 | +1.15% | +31.37% | 7,845 | 8,085 | 7,870 | 1,132,068 |
| PAMPA | 5,470 | +3.80% | +52.30% | 5,270 | 5,525 | 5,280 | 1,507,232 |
| TXAR | 676.00 | +0.82% | +7.13% | 670.50 | 679.50 | 662.00 | 1,188,840 |
| ALUAR | 968.50 | +0.94% | +36.86% | 959.50 | 974.00 | 960.00 | 248,797 |
| TGS | 9,755 | +2.68% | +47.12% | 9,500 | 9,895 | 9,415 | 217,620 |
| CEPU | 2,340 | +2.23% | +60.27% | 2,289 | 2,360 | 2,256 | 516,774 |
| MIRGOR | 16,825 | -1.75% | -21.10% | 17,125 | 17,075 | 16,600 | 5,867 |
| COME | 43.00 | +0.12% | -12.86% | 42.95 | 43.50 | 42.75 | 11,447,131 |
| LOMA NEGRA | 3,605 | +0.91% | +31.84% | 3,573 | 3,650 | 3,480 | 172,458 |
| BYMA | 293.50 | -0.09% | +54.07% | 293.75 | 296.75 | 291.50 | 4,031,217 |
| TELECOM ARG | 4,215 | +1.69% | +81.68% | 4,145 | 4,270 | 4,093 | 29,328 |
| GLOBANT | 32.06 | -0.71% | -62.60% | 32.29 | 32.75 | 31.31 | 715,932 |
| MERCADOLIBRE | 1,817 | -0.83% | -23.55% | 1,832 | 1,840 | 1,798 | 166,578 |
02 Equities — The Market Sold the Non-Event
Merval Argentina today enters Thursday’s session back on the cloud bottom after the S&P Merval fell 1.07% on Adorni testimony day, breaking the three-session recovery. This Argentina stock market report covers the session where the binary event the prior reports tracked for a week — Adorni’s Congressional testimony — produced neither the feared resignation nor the hoped-for closure. The market’s response was to sell. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Latin American equity markets.
The session’s intraday path tells the story. The Merval opened at the Kijun (2,869,560), rallied to 2,885,134 during Adorni’s opening presentation — briefly testing the 21-EMA as the government’s show of solidarity (Milei, Karina, full cabinet in attendance) registered as a temporary positive — then reversed as the six-hour questioning began and the market realized the session would produce political theater rather than resolution. The selloff to 2,826,338 (near the 50-SMA at 2,812,422) and the recovery to close at 2,838,835 (Kijun/cloud bottom) confirms the range: 21-EMA ceiling → Kijun center → 50-SMA floor.
The political takeaway: Adorni survives for now. The probe continues in the judiciary. The asset declaration deadline extends to July 31. Milei’s public solidarity is total (“You are the corrupt ones” at journalists). But the Merval at 19.8x forward P/E needs governance confidence, and a six-hour session that avoided the substantive questions — with 2,000 pages of answers filed at 8 AM for lawmakers who couldn’t read them — does not provide that confidence. The corruption probe is not over; it is deferred. The market priced the deferral as a negative.
03 The Range That Won’t Resolve
The Merval has now been oscillating between the 50-day SMA (2,812K) and the 21-day EMA (2,882K) for over a week — a 70,000-point band (~2.5%) where no catalyst has been strong enough to produce a directional breakout. The Kijun-sen at 2,839K sits in the middle and has served as the close for six of the last fourteen sessions. The range is the Merval’s way of pricing the standoff: the soybean harvest, fiscal surplus, and Vaca Muerta provide the floor; the 19.8x valuation, the corruption probe, and the inflation re-acceleration provide the ceiling.
The April CPI print (May 14) is the next catalyst that could break the range. A reading below 3% monthly would restore the disinflation thesis and provide the fundamental basis for a push above the 21-EMA. A reading above 3% (eleventh consecutive month) would confirm the re-acceleration and send the Merval toward the 50-SMA and potentially the 200-SMA (2,808,804). Country risk at ~500 bps remains the medium-term gate for fixed-income access and broader re-rating.
04 Key Levels
| Level | S&P Merval |
| 21-day EMA (ceiling) | 2,881,585 |
| Tenkan-sen | 2,878,552 |
| Wednesday Close / Kijun / Cloud bottom | 2,838,835 |
| 50-day SMA (floor) | 2,812,422 |
| 200-day SMA | 2,808,804 |
05 Looking Ahead
Thursday enters with the Adorni event behind the market. The testimony produced no resignation, no resolution, and a selloff that broke the recovery — but the range is intact. The 50-SMA at 2,812K and the 200-SMA at 2,809K form a tight confluence below that, if reached, would be the deepest test since the March correction. The April CPI (May 14) is now the most important near-term catalyst.
Key dates: May 14 — April INDEC CPI (below 3% = bullish; above 3% = eleventh month). Adorni testimony: COMPLETED — no resignation, probe continues. April–May — peak soybean harvest. US$2B World Bank-backed loan. Country risk ~500 bps.
06 Verdict
Wednesday was the session the Merval sold the non-event. Adorni survived his six-hour Congressional appearance — declaring “I committed no crime,” deflecting personal-finance questions, and receiving Milei’s full-cabinet solidarity — but the market’s response was a −1.07% decline that broke the three-session recovery and reversed the MACD narrowing. No resignation is a marginal positive; no resolution is a sustained negative. The probe continues in the judiciary. The 19.8x P/E cannot absorb ongoing governance uncertainty indefinitely. The MACD at −16,444 has re-widened. The range (50-SMA to 21-EMA) persists.
Bias: Neutral — range-bound, Adorni behind, CPI ahead. The Merval at 2,839K is on the Kijun/cloud bottom — the gravitational center of the past two weeks. The 21-EMA (2,882K) is the ceiling; the 50-SMA (2,812K) is the floor. The Adorni event risk has passed without either breaking the range. The April CPI (May 14) is the next catalyst that can produce a directional move. A reading below 3% reopens 3,000,000. A reading above 3% targets 2,812K and possibly 2,809K (200-SMA). The range holds until the data arrives.
Related coverage:
Adorni testimony: Adorni Denies Corruption Allegations in Congress (BA Times)
Buenos Aires Herald: Adorni to Congress: “I Didn’t Commit Any Crimes”
Pre-testimony: Argentina’s Decisive Week: Adorni Faces Congress
Economy guide: Argentina Economy 2026: Complete Investor Guide
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published by The Rio Times.
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