The Big Three
The S&P Merval rose 0.90% to 2,866,257.12 on Monday in a bullish marubozu — open at the session low, close on the Kijun-sen — producing the second consecutive gain and the first session where the MACD histogram narrowed since the bearish cross began eight sessions ago. The index opened at 2,840,787 (Friday’s close), rallied throughout the session to 2,892,497, then settled at 2,866,257 — right on the Kijun-sen. The close is back above the cloud bottom (2,854,179) and approaching the Tenkan-sen (2,890,513). The MACD histogram narrowed from −17,356 to −16,907 — a marginal change of 449 points, but the first narrowing since the bearish cross initiated on April 17. This is the earliest possible signal that the sell momentum is beginning to decelerate.
Cabinet Chief Manuel Adorni faces the Chamber of Deputies on Wednesday (April 29) in the most politically consequential Congressional testimony of Milei’s 2026 calendar. The enrichment probe centers on unexplained asset growth, transactions involving third parties, and inconsistencies in Adorni’s financial disclosures — including questions about who paid for his return journey from New York after the Argentina Week roadshow. The Anti-Corruption Office extended the deadline for patrimonial disclosures from May 30 to July 31, drawing criticism for timing the relief during Adorni’s peak judicial exposure. Vice President Villarruel skipped a Pope Francis homage to avoid being photographed with Adorni — the most visible sign of the Milei-Villarruel rupture. For the Merval, Wednesday is a binary political-risk session: if Adorni’s testimony produces a forced resignation, the market reprices Milei’s political stability; if it passes without consequence, the market shrugs and refocuses on macro data.
The soybean harvest and the $2 billion World Bank-backed loan negotiation provide the constructive fundamental backdrop behind the technical recovery. USDA’s FAS forecasts Argentine soybean production at 49 million tonnes for 2026/27, with Argentina maintaining its position as the world’s leading exporter of soymeal and soy oil. The April–May liquidation window remains the primary dollar inflow channel for the BCRA’s $10 billion reserve target ($3.3 billion YTD). Separately, the government is negotiating a US$2 billion loan with private banks backed by World Bank guarantees to cover July debt maturities. Economy Minister Caputo and BCRA chief Bausili told an audience in Washington that Argentina’s FX regime “held firm” — framing the crawling band as a success. Country risk near 500 bps remains the threshold for private market access.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| S&P Merval Close / Kijun-sen | 2,866,257.12 | +0.90% (+25,469.63) |
| Session Low / Open (marubozu) | 2,840,787.49 | open = low, buyers all day |
| Session High | 2,892,497.19 | near Tenkan-sen |
| Cloud bottom (reclaimed) | 2,854,179 | close above |
| MACD histogram (FIRST NARROWING) | −16,907 | from −17,356 — first time |
| RSI signal | 48.27 | approaching 50 |
| Tenkan-sen (next resistance) | 2,890,513 | 24K pts above close |
| 50-day SMA (support) | 2,816,202 | 1.7% below close |
| 200-day SMA | 2,792,486 | 2.6% below close |
| Adorni testimony | Wed Apr 29 | binary political risk |
02 Equities — The First Narrowing
Merval Argentina today enters Tuesday’s session with the first MACD histogram narrowing since the selloff began after the S&P Merval rose 0.90% on Monday. This Argentina stock market report covers the session that produced two significant firsts: the first bullish marubozu since April 20, and the first MACD narrowing since the bearish cross on April 17. Together, they represent the earliest possible signal that the correction’s momentum is beginning to decelerate. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Latin American equity markets.
The three-session sequence from the Thursday −2.31% crash is recovering: Thursday −2.31%, Friday +0.32%, Monday +0.90%. The cumulative two-day bounce of +1.22% has recovered roughly one-third of Thursday’s decline. The close at 2,866,257 on the Kijun-sen is the fourth time in the last ten sessions the Merval has closed on this level — confirming it as the gravitational center of the current range. A close above the Tenkan-sen (2,890,513) on Tuesday would provide stronger confirmation that the correction is ending.
The week ahead is Milei’s most politically exposed of 2026. The Rio Times’ analysis — “Argentina’s Decisive Week” — frames the convergence: Adorni‘s Wednesday Congressional testimony on enrichment allegations, March inflation at 3.4% (tenth month above 3%), the IMF growth cut from 4.0% to 3.5%, and the Milei-Villarruel vice-presidential rupture. For the Merval, Wednesday is the binary session: the testimony either passes without consequence (allowing the technical recovery to continue) or produces political damage that overrides the nascent MACD improvement.
03 Adorni’s Decisive Week
Cabinet Chief Manuel Adorni’s Wednesday testimony before the Chamber of Deputies is the highest-profile political-risk event since Milei’s midterm victory in October. The probe centers on unexplained asset growth, transactions involving third parties, and questions about who paid for his New York return flight after the Argentina Week investor roadshow. The Anti-Corruption Office extended disclosure deadlines from May to July — a move widely interpreted as providing cover for Adorni during his peak exposure.
The Milei-Villarruel rupture adds a second dimension: Vice President Villarruel’s refusal to appear alongside Adorni at a Pope Francis event signals that the government’s internal cohesion is fraying under the twin pressures of the enrichment probe and inflation’s refusal to fall. For the Merval at 19.8x forward P/E — LatAm’s highest — political stability is not a bonus; it is a prerequisite for justifying the multiple. Any forced resignation, coalition fracture, or loss of Congressional cooperation from Wednesday’s testimony could reprice the political premium that has supported the Merval above peers since October.
04 Technical Analysis — S&P Merval Daily
From the chart: O:2,840,787.49, H:2,892,497.19, L:2,840,787.49, C:2,866,257.12 (+25,469.63, +0.90%). Monday’s candle is a bullish marubozu — open at the session low with no lower wick and a close in the upper half of the range. The close on the Kijun-sen (2,866,257) confirms this level as the current equilibrium. The session high at 2,892,497 approached but did not reach the Tenkan-sen (2,890,513) — that level remains the confirmation threshold.
MACD at 28,500 with signal at 11,593 (histogram −16,907) narrowed for the first time — from −17,356 (Friday). The narrowing is marginal (449 points) but directionally significant: it ends the eight-session sequence of deepening and begins the potential recovery path. RSI at 54.98 with signal at 48.27 has the signal approaching 50. A cross above 50 on the signal would be the second recovery indicator alongside the MACD narrowing. Support: cloud bottom (2,854,179) → 50-day SMA (2,816,202) → 200-day SMA (2,792,486). Resistance: Tenkan-sen (2,890,513) → 21-EMA (2,893,366) → cloud top/upper BB (2,931,394).
05 Key Levels
| Level | S&P Merval |
| 21-day EMA (resistance) | 2,893,366 |
| Tenkan-sen (confirmation) | 2,890,513 |
| Cloud top | 2,872,346 |
| Monday Close / Kijun-sen | 2,866,257 |
| Cloud bottom | 2,854,179 |
| 50-day SMA | 2,816,202 |
| 200-day SMA | 2,792,486 |
06 Looking Ahead
Tuesday and Wednesday define the week. A close above the Tenkan-sen (2,890,513) on Tuesday would provide a third consecutive gain and strengthen the MACD narrowing narrative. Wednesday’s Adorni testimony is the binary political risk: a non-event allows the recovery to extend; a forced resignation or political damage overrides the technical repair. The MACD histogram needs two to three more sessions of narrowing before a bullish re-cross becomes plausible.
Key dates: April 29 — Adorni testimony before Chamber of Deputies (binary risk). May 14 — April INDEC CPI (below 3% restores thesis; above 3% confirms re-acceleration). April–May — peak soybean harvest inflows. US$2B World Bank-backed loan negotiation. US$19B external debt maturities.
07 Verdict
Monday produced two firsts: the first bullish marubozu since April 20 and the first MACD histogram narrowing since the bearish cross on April 17. The +0.90% gain to 2,866,257 on the Kijun-sen, with the close back above the cloud bottom, is the clearest recovery signal since the selloff began. The two-day bounce from Thursday’s crash low has recovered 1.22% of the 2.31% decline. The soybean harvest, the $2 billion World Bank-backed loan negotiation, and the approaching country-risk threshold at 500 bps provide the fundamental bid.
Bias: Cautiously constructive — MACD narrows, but Adorni risk looms Wednesday. The Merval’s recovery from the cloud bottom / 50-day SMA confluence is underway: two consecutive gains, the first MACD narrowing, RSI signal approaching 50. The Tenkan-sen at 2,890,513 is the confirmation level. But Adorni’s Wednesday testimony is the political-risk event that could override the technical recovery. At 19.8x forward P/E, the Merval needs political stability to justify its premium. Wednesday answers whether it has it. Watch 2,890,513 above and 2,854,179 below.
Related coverage:
Argentina’s decisive week: Adorni Faces Congress Wednesday on Wealth Allegations
Previous Merval: Merval Bounces 0.32% From 200-SMA Test
Economy guide: Argentina Economy 2026: Milei’s Shock Therapy Is Working
LatAm markets: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Complete Guide
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published by The Rio Times.